Investment Q&A

Q: I noticed in your disclosure you have an interest in TLT, I hold ZTL which I assume is comparable?

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF as of May 31, 2023 has 75% in 0-3 month T-bills & 6% in 7-10 years with no exposure beyond that.

Could you help me understand the risk/reward difference between the ultra-short term and ultra-long term T-bills and which I would be better with in todays market and assumption interest rates may have peaked, or should I cover both ends?

Q: Today the US Fed announced a pause in its rate hikes however stating the next move will be up. Looking back in history I see that 90% of the time a pause in the fed rate is followed by a reduction in rates and not an increase. If history repeats itself I'm thinking bonds should start to increase in price. To take advantage, if my thinking is correct, should I hold short, medium or long bonds. I have held BLV for some time now and am in a loss position but am thinking of adding a wee bit more.

Appreciate any comments you have.

Q: Hello 5i
We currently hold CBO, CLF & XRB at 25/25/50% all as long term holdings in a slight loss position. I believe we are currently at (or very near) peak interest rates. Do you have any suggestions to bond replacements that might be better positioned to capture rate reductions for these holdings. (not accounting for the bonus of tax loss selling)
Again many thanks
Les

Q: If Congress fails to increase the debt limit, how do you think it will impact the price of TLT and XLB? Thank you.

Q: I am trying to understand what seems to me as unusual volatility in treasuries recently - especially Monday. Has this sort of thing happened in the past ?

Q: David Rosenberg has recommended a mix split nearly evenly among long-dated US treasuries, high-yield bond and high-paying dividend stocks for investors seeking a favourable return with reduced overall volatility. My questions are:
1) are long-dated US treasuries the same as bonds?
2) how long would you go?
3)could you recommend a long-dated US treasury ETF and a high-yield bond?
thanks

Q: Could you make a case for each of these two Treasury ETF's ? Would you favour one over the other ?

Do you prefer other Treasury ETF's to these two ?

Q: Rick Rieder from Blackrock posted that fixed income is setting up for generational returns. Also "on a relative valuation basis, stocks cannot be considered the cheaper asset". Would you agree that its shaping up to be a big opportunity to buy fixed assets, and if so what tops your list? Thx

Q: Can you name a few securities that you would recommend in an effort to capitalize on the potential bond market opportunity as outlined in your March 16th market report?

Please rank and provide a brief explanation for the ranking.

Q: If interest rates and inflation are going to peak, do you think these ETFs (XLF, IAK TLT) have opportunity now? If so which one has most potential right now? Thank you.

Q: What would be your top 3 bond ETF picks for both Canadian and US bonds? Is now a good time to put money into these?

Q: Is it reasonable to sell TLT and replace with EDV to register a capital loss but keep exposure to long dated treasuries. As well as a better yield while waiting.
Thank you

Q: What would be the best way to get exposure to US Treasury Bills for inclusion in a registered account (assuming no tax hit from holding them there)?

Q: what % weighting would you feel appropriate for TLT in my balanced Portfolio. If rates start to fall hard in the next 2 years and TLT starts going up. What will happen to the dollar.
Will the U.S. dollar rise in comparison to the CDN dollar or Fall ?
I'm wondering if i should buy the hedged ETF ZTL.F instead of TLT
Thanks Gord

Q: What are your favourite Canadian bond ETFs given the current circumstances and looking ahead a couple of years.
Thank you!

Q: If one believes the 2 year note yield will fall, what are best ideas to play this scenario?

Q: I am looking to add some bond exposure. I had a look at TLT and XHY.

Here is my own personal view on the economy:

- Interest rates could eventually flatline or even fall later in 2023.

- The economy has a somewhat elevated risk of going into a recession.

- The interest rate hikes have a risk of causing "something to break", possibly triggering a black swan event.

Under the above scenarios I am guessing XHY is not a good option considering the individual ratings of the bonds within this ETF, correct?

I don't necessarily want to invest in preparation for a black swan event that may or may not happen, however I want to prepare a bit for that possibility. If that were to happen I would guess that investors would tend to migrate towards the USD. Would that be beneficial for TLT?

Are there better options?

Q: Hi Peter,

After the fed outlook for the economy and the fed rate 2023 what is your opinion of a near term price movement of TLT? Do you think the fed was setting the expectation of a hard landing / recession without acknowledging that the fed rate is restrictive enough already?
Regards
Rajiv

Q: Bond ETFs like ZAG and XBB look to be off 20% or more from highs 2 years ago. Do you see a path back to those highs? And over what period of time? The possibility of capital appreciation while collecting 3% interest has some appeal. Would interest rates actually have to decline, or could merely levelling off cause a bond ETF to rise? If you thought the stars might align say in the next 2 years, what ETF might you choose to play a capital appreciation theme (and maybe state a couple of the assumptions you are making)? Thanks,

Q: For price appreciation in the next 12-24 months, would you prefer a long-term ETF like XLB/TLT or an ETF with shorter duration like XBB/ZAG. Or a bit of both?
Thanks.