Investment Q&A

Q: Recently and in very short order, the TSX blew through a correction (10% down), then quickly passed through bear market territory (20% down) and is right now on this very bad day about 26 % off its high. At what point do we start calling this a market crash? At what point would you consider there to be blood in the streets? It certainly feels like the blood is being sucked out of my portfolio!

Q: Most analysts seem to agree to CDN dollar is going further down compared to the U.S. Some think to 50%? What do you think and is there an ETF or investment that you think would be a good way to play that belief?

Q: Hello, do you think the reasoning 15 or 16 times earnings of 90-100$ which implies the spx benchmark adjusting to around 1500 has some merit in the current environment ? Also, with the US economy doing ok and the $can below 0.70, is it a strong stimulus for Canada or are we not exporting to them as much anymore ? Thank you

Q: Regarding certain analysts recent advice to sell everything I would like to refer to a chart in Stock Charts that was published today on the Juggling Dynamite blog. The chart follows the value of the TSX and the $Cdn. The $Cdn leads and the TSX eventually catches down. 2002 TSX bottom 6000 & $Cdn at 62.5. 2009 TSX bottom 7500 & $Cdn at 77.5. If the TSX follows the $Cdn down to the current 68 cents, the TSX level will be 7000.

You keep telling us that nothing has changed. Maybe all assets are reverting to the mean from their elevated levels caused by all the QE. Almost every 10 year stock chart that I look at shows super charged growth starting about 2012.

The chart that I referenced is quite shocking and suggests that this correction could test the 2009 levels. Would you please comment.

Q: I am 68 years old, retired, and rely on dividends for income. I went 100% into cash on December 31st, thereby avoiding the 7.2% drop in the TSX over the past two weeks. Once the dust settles, I plan on re-establishing my previous positions in individual high paying, low beta, small to mid-cap Canadian dividend paying stocks, diversified across most sectors. I prefer Canada over the U.S. for the dividend tax credit, and I prefer small to mid-cap stocks for their monthly payouts. Given the current macro and micro economic conditions influencing the Markets, in your view, is this a reasonable strategy going forward? As always, thank you for your valued response!

Q: Headlines scream out "Sell Everything" ... but surely there needs to be someone on the other end to "Buy Everything".

I've been slowly dipping in and buying and appreciate the wisdom in your answers to all members questions.

Do you have a gut feel for how long the market sell off will continue? I like open ended questions like these to see where you go with them.

Thanks
Mike

Q: My current position is approx. 65% UK, 19% Canada, 8% US, 5% Australia and 3% Europe (excl UK) where roughly 95% is invested in individual companies and 5% in ETFS.
In a previous reply to one of my questions (year or two ago) you referred to capital flows.
In the environment we're in today where do you think capital flows momentum is or will be - the (perceived)safety of the US or elsewhere?

Q: Some say the extremely high debt governments are carrying will take whole world down.. And China's extremely unmanageable ( undisclosed and previously hidden) debt will bring widespread collapse to the western world as well as their own economy
Do you agree, and specifically why/why not? How-- on what basis would you assess now whether we are going into a severe bear market? Should a 'wise' investor "cut n run"?

Q: Would you advise buying now in anticipation of a bounce back, and if so, what sector? Tech? Health? Or should we buy defensive stocks or bond funds in anticipation of continued heavy turbulence?
If you had some money ready at hand, what would you do with it?

Q: I think the U.S. is going into a recession as some have predicted and much of the data supports. Ones overall view of the big picture should be paramount, not the buy the dip mentality which has been pervasive view and correct over the last few years, prior to 2015. Things have changed and the markets are forcasting the change. Cash will be safe but until the change for the better starts to happen, I recommend stay in cash. Not for everyone, but if you invest or trade, you have to sleep at night. just one point of view and this makes a market go up and down. Watch all the data. not good at the moment imhop.

Q: It looks like a lot of people are taking that RBS advise to "sell everything " to heart today. Wouldn't selling now just lock in loses? Do you advise the best course is do nothing and just ride it out for those who don't need the cash?

Q: I have a fairly diversified portfolio with stocks and etfs in different sectors. But I am seeing a majority of my holdings are down. Practically, anything which was bought within the last couple of years is down especially anything in the last couple of months (which was when I invested a majority of holdings) is down. I have a fairly long time frame but what should I do at times like these? What should I learn from this? Even those stocks which seemed like a good buy at that time seem overvalued..On top of this the drop in Canadian $ was a big hit.

Q: Can you please comment on the S&P500 valuation at the moment and going forward in this environment ? We keep hearing about the strong dollar which affects earning but it appears the index remains very high at close to 2000 (vs the last 5-10 yrs). Also, do you think the tsx will be closely correlated with the US index in the next 2-3 years. Thank you.

Q: Which stocks will benefit most from the low Canadian dollar. I had thought that exporters like Magna would, but the market has not been any kinder to it. Can you suggest a few names to consider?

Q: What are two Canadian stocks that would benefit from our very low Canadian dollar.

Thanks

Q: Hi, although I have learned plenty since subscribing to your service about two years ago, iam now realizing that my portfolio consisting of about twlelve total stocks from your portfolio's, majority of which are growth stocks, that my beta is about two at least, Do u think I should rebalance or stay the course in this tough market? I can handle it but it is more difficult than I thought, I won't need the money for about five years, thanks?

Q: Is it a good time to add to a diversified portfolio during these volatile times ? I have a long term horizon with limited exposure to stocks curently but the decline since the summer has been bad (oil and commodity mainly but many other names as well). I guess i worry that we could be in for another 20% drop and i have a lack of confidence in the market at the present time. Your comments are appreciated... If time to add, should i add to energy and materials as well ? Thanks

Q: What do you make of a market that starts with hundreds of points up and end with hundreds of points down or vice versa. From your experience is that an indication of bull, bear or nothing can be concluded from these actions. Does history give us any indication what to come or is this a normal gyration of the market and unpredictable investor's reaction?

Thanks

Q: Hello I know how you recommend against trying to "time a bottom" especially when investing longer term. We have about 20% cash presently. Most pundits are saying "hold on" indicating it may be prudent to wait before putting cash to work. However, do you see any issue with adding a bit to existing positions where the stock is down significantly for no fundamental reason. For example, Chemtrade seems very cheap right now. Thanks for your thoughts. Bill

Q: I'd like to get your response to the "Sell Everything!" headline in the Financial Post today, quoting an RBS report saying 2016 would e a 'cataclysmic year' for stock markets.