Investment Q&A

Q: 3rd submission:

I forwarded an question yesterday regarding this rant and I guess it was missed so I will resubmit. I have reviewed many of the concerns today on your blog, and wish to obtain your views further.
A bear market condition in which the prices of securities, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As an investor anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimisms only grows. Although figures can vary for many, a downturn of 20% or more in a multiple broad market indexes over a month period is considered a bear market. This has occurred since Jan 1-2016
A bear Market should not be confused with a correction, which is short-term trend that has a duration of less than usually two months. While corrections are often a great place for a value investor to find an entry point, bear markets rarely provide great entry points, as timing the bottom is very difficult to do. Fighting back can be extremely dangerous because it is quite difficult for an investor to make stellar gains during a bear market unless he or she is prepared to short the seller.
My gut feeling that is not a simple correction as well I have been kicking around markets for over 60 years, I cannot remember an incident as severe as what we are presently experiencing. I felt in the first few days of this year it was going to be a usual correction, however within the past week I made the decision (right or wrong) and have liquidated over 70% of my portfolio to capital gains on the ones I was above water on.
Coupled with this our government is arranging a major restructuring for Alberta and Saskatchewan as well as major funding to kick start "infra structure" which is going to take some time in put in place. In addition, Canadians have now been labeled as have the highest personal debt levels of all G7 Nations and if we get an much as 1/2 to 3/4 interest rate increase, we have a bubble in real estate and the consumer cannot service debt. We all know what happened in the US when this occurred. Real Estate will be the next thing on sale.
So My Rant is, as we work through this, and we will, what can 5i offer in suggestions and recommendation for us an investors to get through this delima. If this stays with us, will we have to change our investment style to shorting and putting. :)
I would appreciate your usual and frank suggestion and comments as well as Peters take on the present day situation.

Q: Hello Peter et al,

Savaria (SIS) has announced preliminary Q4 info with Revenue up 24% and EBITA up about 40%. Full Q4 and annual results will be released about Mar 10. Questions:
1. They reported in Q3 that 54% of their revenue is from the US which is great. Is there any info on what percentage of their costs are in Canadian dollars as opposed to US dollars or Chinese RMB (which has only decreased about 5% vs the US dollar in the past year).
2. Any guess on how the EBITA increase will shake down to the bottom line? Note, TDDI shows estimated Q4 earnings of .06, same as Q4 2014, which seems a bit light.
3. Would it be reasonable to go above a 3% portfolio weight in SIS, or would you sit in the weeds given the market conditions? Note: our other industrial holdings are BAD 4.6%, TFI 3.1%, and WSP 5.8%.
Many thanks.

Q: A steady stream of positive news from this media company bodes well.
Your considered overview please.

Q: NTB is positive on a down day. How do you feel about the prospects for this company? Could the worse be behind them now and new management finally on track to deliver? Insiders seem to think so stepping up to the plate this past week. Is this a buy now?

Thank you

Q: Are we heading into a recession, what data do you look at to assess this. If yes should we expect markets to continue to decline as we go forward?
Are you able to provide an opinion on CI Financial stock?
Thank you
Richard
Recent New Member
p.s. Thank you for this service

Q: Like most people I have a bit of cash to spare but am nervous about catching the proverbial falling knife in this market. Would you recommend easing into a stock I liked slowly by buying part positions? Or better trying to buy based on a technical signal. Such as waiting for the ten day moving average to turn up or a golden cross to develop etc.? In the past I have found technical signals to be pretty useless and I think academic research shows their accuracy to be at best slightly better than a dartboard.

Q: In response to Paul's question re; $58.00 to fill his tank-don't forget the incredible amount of TAXES that are in a litre of oil as a factor.

Derek

Q: Canaccord nicely up today on an otherwise down market.
Is this meaningful?
thanks
John

Q: Hello Team,
Of the big major oil companies, Exxon, Chevon, Royal Dutch Shell and Total, which has the best balance sheet in the event oil gets into the sub $20.00. Would Suncor be in this league as well.
Thank You,
Barry

Q: Hi 5i: The only oil/gas producer I own is Tourmaline, and I'm thinking of adding one oil stock to be ready for an uptick if that ever happens. Suncor is looking relatively good but I'd like something with a bit more torque. You report that RRX has a very good balance sheet, and I see that it still has positive earnings. However, it does seem expensive. I'd appreciate your thoughts. Are there any better prospects? Thanks in advance for your good advice.

Q: Hi Peter, I just filled the car up for $58. It used to be ~$80. Doesn't seem that we save that much even after the big crude decline. Why is that ? With the much lower raw material input cost and the not that that much lower finished good price, who benefits ? The refiners ? Any TSX companies ? Thanks for making the market recover some this afternoon ! Paul

Q: maybe some stock support. looks like okay guidance released today.
Thx Blake

Q: With all this volatility in the market affect WFC's bottom line in more ways than are immediately apparent to the unschooled investor? Will revenue be affected by declining commissions significantly as some analysts have been hinting? What else could slice into its profits, in this market (leaving aside volatility)? I would appreciate some fundamental analysis on whether to hang on for the ride -- or just bail. I've lost 10% on my initial investment, but I'm not so much concerned about its past, as its future.

Q: Do you see this company surviving the downturn?

Q: Husky has suspended the payment of dividends on their common shares.
What is the likelihood of suspending the payment of dividends on their preferred shares like hse.pr.e ?
Under what conditions a company can suspend the payment of dividends on preferred shares?
Would you advise selling hse.pr.e at this stage?
Thank you.

Q: I've noticed with the recent market mayhem the Yield to Maturity on a number of convertible debentures has been rising and they are starting to look quite attractive. Am I right in thinking dividends would be cut before any interest payments are missed? Specifically, what do you think of EIF.DB.G? How safe is it?

Q: Are there any tax issues with holding BIP.un in a non registered account? Is it eligible for a canadian dividend credit or does it count as a foreign dividend?

Q: If one were to slowly start dipping their toes into the oil sector, which 2 would you rate the best buys at this time: WCP, CPG, NBZ, GXO, CJ, TOG.

Thanks

Dave

Q: Peter and His Wonder Team
Everyone seems to feel the sale will go through. As a share holder if I do nothing will I receive $4.90 per share credit to my account at closing and the shares disappear? Between now and then will the current price tend to drift up towards the $4.90 sale price? The exdividend date was 12/29/15 with the payday being 1/29/16. If I were to sell now...before 1/29/16 do I forfeit the dividend?
Thanks for your great assistance!
Dr.Ernest Rivait

Q: Could you please tell me what is happening to Royal Gold? It is tanking while bullion is doing reasonable well. Thank you again!!