Investment Q&A

Q: Hi Peter and Team:
Liquor stores (TSX) is making a a year low, whihc was also repeated in 2008-2009. The yield is 10% as is covered by the cash flow, but only 50% with the earnings. Liquour comsumption is normally seen as secure as people tend to buy liquor in bad times and a lot in good times .
What do you think ??. If I buy it will be a very small part of my portfolio, with the purpose of increasing my average yield and not getting into a risky investment (I already have enough Artis, Superior Plus, REITS and Banks for normal yield with reasonably low risk)

regards
Alex

Q: What are your thoughts on this stock? It seems to be oversold?

Q: A little perspective for all the Concordia owners: Since Sept 21, when they admitted they basically committed massive fraud, VW is down about 36 percent. In that same time, Concordia is down 50 percent. The market isn't always rational, or even sane.

Q: I am nervous about the markets between now and the end of the year because of the shorts from hedge funds and tax loss selling. Not to mention the possibility of a drastic change in our Federal Government. I am also shying away from bonds because of the threat of rising rates. I am largely in cash but am wondering if HPR would be considered a diversification from equities? Jeff

Q: I go into detail because this Question concerns a larger issue related to cash levels investors should allocate to Reserves. Reserve to take advantage of opportunities in volatile times. I will normally be brief when my words need no explanation , background or context.

National Oilwell Varco (NOV.us), ONE company is 8% of my portfolio. The sector represented 20% before I reduced it to 11%. NOV has lost more than half its value (and 70% of my cost). The over-allocation to NOV was the idea of a former broker . I too am at fault: I compounded the error by not rebalancing sooner. I reduced sector allocation but failed to reduce NOV. And now I try to avert my eyes when I see the loss. Problems get worse when ignored.

I arrive now at the 5i doorstep, to obtain objective comment:
In your opinion , since NOV has fallen off a cliff , does it now represent value such that one should just hold? The dividend is decent (if it is safe ; and I can't use the tax loss)

Context: Many financial commentators advise that investors keep high cash reserves during current volatility so that you’d then be in position to pick up great values when markets over-react on the downside. The advice assumes stocks will continue the recent (and rapid) descent . I had thought major markets in the US, Europe, UK and Canada had now dropped enough such that a high cash reserve was now not crucial. Several experts think otherwise: I am referring here to the opinions of successful , real-world investors. I disregard those drama queens who scream dire warnings, no matter the facts, prospects and real business conditions. I also disregard the idiocy of conmen and bullies ---the O’Leary’s of the world--- and others like the affable but hyper Jim Cramers of the Americas. I disregard the opinions of Dr Marc Faber and others whose purpose seems to be to sell expensive letters that predict the end of the world. Their performance is not unlike results you'd get from a random coin toss [CXO Advisory and other sources have documented the poor track records of many gurus..

My question about freeing up cash (by selling NOV in my case) thus arose after I thought through the concerns well reasoned and articulated by thoughtful , successful advisors.

Notwithstanding recent market corrections, the wiser commentators continue to emphasize the importance of maintaining large cash reserves to take advantage of opportunities in these volatile times if markets descend even further. Unlike the sensationalists, the thoughtful advisors make sense . I have therefore taken seriously their views on ensuring one should today keep cash reserves higher than usual

Do you think I should sell/reduce NOV to add to cash reserves ? Or do you think NOV is now excellent value and is not now the best candidate to jettison if the purpose is just to add to cash reserve?

AO:ls
Champlain NY cc Greensboro NC

Q: Hi Team,

Can you please update your outlook for IT and provide an opinion on when a buying signal might be present. I am concerned it might be a falling knife given how high and quickly it rose before its ongoing pullback. It seems like it could be another Avigilon. How does one know?

Thank you, Michael

Q: Hi, what do you think about gxi right now? Would you add to an existing position?

Thanks
Paul

Q: Hi Team,
Since the cel and a board member of Guestlogix resigned over the last two weeks,the share price has dropped by almost half.is this a sign of panic by investors ,while the fundamentals are still solid? Should I wait for Q3 results to average down or should I see this as an opportunity to average down?
thank you

Q: The selling and lack of buying on this stock seems to be relentless. They have just now closed their convertible debenture. I am wondering if there is some kind of arbitrage going on between the stock and the debenture?

Q: could you please comment on your outlook for AIG in the 55$ range here currently -

Q: After reading many comments to Josh's disappointment, I like to add is I am happy with your service even I have been a member for less than a year and I still have some 16 credit points left. I find that your answers to members' questions very helpful and it educates me a lot. Your portfolio holdings are just models and it is our own decision which ones to buy.
What I want to do is to make the best out of the loss position: Since I had gains last year, I would like to sell the big losers (including some on your portfolio that I had bought before I joined in 5i) to carry back to last year income tax. Also, I can rebuild part of my portfolio. I would like to hear your comments. Thank you.

Q: Hi Peter, it seems that AYA is continuing its downward move do you think its going to continue, is there a specific reason, will we see it return to $30.00 anytime. Would you average down at any point and do you still like it for the long term. Thanks

Q: reading the questions and answers to this massive downturn-
I think by far the best response comes from jerry who says I don't follow 5i's long term advice or their portfolios, I get my value from specific recommendations, answers to questions, and the basic integrity of 5i.
the key part of jerrys quote is long term advice--peter has been very clear that 5 years is his time frame and yet during this downturn especially with cxr everyone is in a panic.
as for me my time frame is far far shorter than 5 years-- and I think a stock like knight and currency exchange-- I own lots of both we will be rewarded long before 5 years is up and if I am not I always have the option to sell.but every investors temperament is different and if this downturn is too painful then sell and wait it out. dave

Q: Hello,

Can you tell me where a retail investor can find the credit ratings for US & CDN companies?

Thanks

Q: In your August report you thought the stock was interesting at the $33 level. Keeping in mind they own 6 VW dealerships representing 13% of revenue which seems to add an new element of uncertainty. Would you consider it reasonable to add to a small position at today's price.
Many thanks
Mike

Q: Hello Peter,
If one owns Concordia Healthcare and Valeant Pharma, is the best course of action to stay put? I hope it does not take shape as in the oil stocks sector. Once the sector took a hit, it just kept on declining and has not recovered? For some reason, I do not feel it is the same and both companies should recover after a few months of volatility. Can you please shed light on this? Thanks

Q: Hello Peter,
I own some Home Capital group, about 2 percent of weight. I also own bank of nova scotia, TD, and Royal all of which represent 17 percent of my weighting. I also have Ailment Couch Tard and Auto Canada which represent 2 to 3 % each. I am breaking even on HCG. I was thinking of selling it and putting the proceeds towards Auto Canada or Ailment Couche Tard or one of the existing banks as mentioned to take advantage of their lower stock values. Which one would make sense to you? I was thinking of splitting my proceeds to Auto Canada and Ailment Couche Tard as I have enough weighting in the banks. Why am I thinking of this? Simply to diversify away from stocks that could potential be hit due to a housing bubble. Your comments please.

Q: Hi- I hold a bit of XHY but it has been crashing and I hear a lot of negative comments on it- liking it to holding the mortgage backed securities of 2008- what do you think?

Q: Why is the stock so weak? Is the dividend safe and is it ok to hold for the long term? Thank you.

Q: Hi my earlier question was not answered. What replaced FSV in the model balanced portfolio when it was sold in April. ( I think)

Thx Blake