Investment Q&A

Q: Hello, my question is about an article I read in CMS. Bill Gross says investors need to watch only one number in 2017 to figure out what returns are going to look like across the various markets, and that’s whether the 10-year Treasury yield crosses the 2.6% mark. As of today the 10-year yield is 2.48%. "If 2.6% is broken on the upside...a secular bear bond market has begun," Gross said. "Watch the 2.6% level. Much more important than Dow 20,000. Much more important than $60-a-barrel oil. Much more important than dollar/euro parity at 1.00. It is the key to interest rate levels and perhaps stock prices in 2017."
So my questions are, what will happen if it crosses the 2.6% mark? Does this mean that the yield on bond ETFs such as XBB and VSB will increase? Does this mean that this will be good for the stoch market in general? What is a secular bear bond market?Regards, Gervais

Q: Hello,i'am really concerned that the media and Democrates in the states are going to try and shut Trump down, or impeach him,with all they got to throw at him, real or not.
If they are to succeed, i'am thinking the market will take a big hit.
I was thinking of liquidating up to 40% of my portfolio and ride this circus out.
What would be the best way to do this GIC,Bonds,ETF or something else
Thanks

Q: Place(s) to park some cash in Cdn funds (50K) for a short term hold to ride out potential volatility & recently talked about possible market correction?
Ted

Q: I noticed on your macroeconomic card that inflation rate is higher than gdp growth. What causes this and is it something that can continue over the long term ? Thank you.

Q: The prospect of some kind of a border adjustment tax remains in the US, and while the market seems to like the other tax proposals, it does not seem to be responding to this risk. I would appreciate your thoughts on what such would mean for the markets, and the best way to defend a portfolio. Certainly Canadian exporters would be at risk, but I would suspect the damage would be much more widespread than that. It would seem to me that it would be highly inflationary, as well as likely to cause various trade wars.
Whether it will or even could happen depends upon which media one reads, but the risk is not zero.
Thanks for your thoughts. Patrick.

Q: Hello 5i team,
Your article on hedging for a market downturn is quite timely; thank you.
A 5% or 10% correction is not too worrisome as it could be recovered in a relatively short period of time.
I do not foresee a "black swan" event; do you? In my opinion, the current steepness of the yield curve does not signal the eventuality of such an event.
Regards,
Antoine

Q: Hi Peter and team, I'm looking for some input as to where to deploy a recent RRSP contribution. I'm an aggressive investor with a 20+ year time horizon, and I tend to hold a focused portfolio. Currently holding QSR, XTC, PBH, SIS, TD, DH, WSP, CSU, SJ, and ENGH in roughly even allocations. I have broad exposure to US, Canadian, and International markets through my group RRSP at work, so am not overly concerned with diversifying the mix above. What are two or three companies you would suggest adding to the above for a long-term hold in an RRSP? By long-term I mean 5+ years, so the companies would likely be in dominant market positions.

Many thanks,

Alex

Q: Greetings Team:

Greg Bonnel on BNN was wondering if the TSE would show a gain or loss for Monday on the Close and when he turned around the TSE lost about 70 points in a manner of seconds. Looking at my own portfolios I noticed that the banks and insurance companies had all dropped suddenly. Computers to blame, I reckon. Would you please comment on this.

Q: What would you recommend for someone with a short term horizon 6M-1Year with a low risk tolerance. Should I put everything into bond etf such as ZAG or even VAB?

Q: What is your opinion of adding VVL & VMO in equal weight for a global value/ momentum strategy to my portfolio? Or adding just VVL... also could you comment on currency risk here since these products are not hedged to CAD.
Thank you.

Q: I have been considering moving to a larger percentage of cash (60-70%)
My concern is that with the proposed tax plan due from Trump next week that the market is thinking one thing and if it does not line up with what is proposed that we will see a dramatic fall.
Can I get your thoughts please.

Thanks

Q: You talk about sector and asset weighting based on an entire portfolio. If one's portfolio is say $50,000 and a 9% stock weighting is $4,500 is it worth the fees to sell and re-balance? Does the answer change if it's a long term holding? What if the individual is making regular contributions of $10,000 / year? Could they continue to hold that 9% position and reduce it over X number of years by investing in other assets?

Q: Based on my own accounts it seems that bond ETFs are negatively correlated with stocks, on the whole. That's not surprising, but do you have any numbers on this?

Q: Hello Peter and Ryan,
Is HXU designed to always give you plus or minus 200% of what XIU returns whether? I compared previous prices, and it seems to go that way. Given the structure of the ETF, can this change or I can assume it will be plus or minus 200 of the corresponding index? I am also looking at HGU the bull gold case versus XGD and similarly DIA versus DDM. I was looking at a trade idea if the market falls, simply buy the bull ETF so that when market picks up, i can get a higher return. Can you advise how they companies can do double the return (what financial instruments do they use). Thank you.

Q: There seems to be a consensus that the USA will raise interest rates 2-3 times this year.Also the negative effect it will have on telcos,utilities,reits etc.It doesn't necessarily mean Canada will follow lockstep on these moves but the negative effects are still mentioned.Could you comment .

Q: The high markets seem poised for a correction, do you think moving money into CLF, CBO, or any other bond ETF is a good way to go. Maybe ride out the next few months and move back into equities after a correction has taken place? Thanks.

Q: Hi Peter & Team: For a growth portfolio, what % would you allocate to Cdn,US,EM and other developed mkt. ? What ETF's would you suggest for EM & other dev.mkt, hedged or not hedged to the loony? Thanks. Fooklin

Q: In follow up to my previous question, what sectors would you consider adding for diversification? And also your reasoning why.

Q: Hello Peter, Ryan and team:

In the current political/rate increase climate what is a good % in terms of asset allocation for Bonds for a 60+ year old couple who are medium risk takers. Further more inside the bonds what should be % for Short term/medium term, Corporate and high yield bonds. I understand it is not a good idea to hold Long term bonds though Vanguard has just released several ETFs incl Long bond ETF! When the experts on BNN or in Business pages talk about "cash" position 30% etc., I presume they mean cash/GICs and Bonds?
Always enjoy your take on things .
Mano

Q: Hi guys,

Just wanted to know your thoughts about EMH and active investing. We all know that fees are a huge drag on performance; but interestingly, an old Globe article by George Athanassakos argues institutional factors like hugging the index are the main factor for underperformance.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investor-education/real-active-management-is-worth-the-price/article26874608/

Would there be an advantage in returns (not including fees or commissions) with following a disciplined 100k model portfolio versus investing 100k in a traditional 300mil fund with the same holdings? I suppose inflows and outflows would be a major factor as well.

Thanks for your opinion.