Investment Q&A

Q: Morning 5iTeam, During the 1918 pandemic, how big of a hit did the financial markets take in Canada and the States? And how how long did it take for both markets to recover to pre-1918 pandemic levels?
Cheers and your great work is much appreciated.

Q: I know u are more about stock but my question is do u think I should change all my Canadian dollars not invested into US funds. Right now about 50/50 in Canadian stocks and US stocks. With Oil being down the growth in US stocks seem much higher to me. I understand just your opinion..

Q: I hesitate to ask because I find that some of your subscribers expect you to answer questions which are far from your stated ambit, but at the risk of being lumped in with them let me go ahead anyway. Would you know if the Government of Canada published a budget for 2020-2021, and if so, did it change the capital gains tax formulation? Many thanks.

Q: IF and that is a big IF we have all missed the bottom on American larger caps should I be now focusing on US small caps and International markets? When I look at SPY and VIG all th money has jumped into American large caps and more or less erased the huge loss and pairs back some of my gains from 2019...so huge collapse gone...for now. I've topped up some VIG but missed on SPY. When I look at US small caps they are lagging and I assume this is due to the higher risk and lower volume, Same story for Europe, International and emerging markets. So my question is should I be shifting to adding IWO, XEF, and VE. I need to add some international content to my portfolio anyways as I am a bit light at 12% international ( developed) and 10% emerging markets. If you agree or don't strongly disagree what ETFs do you recommend right now ( I already hold the one mentioned). I am leaning toward a bit of IWO and larger positions in VE and XEF.

5 year window, high but slowly lowering risk tolerance, Balanced portfolio follower ( shifting slowly to income follower), overweight canada (40%) and US(40%) ,

Q: Are you believer's that there will be a double bottom? I am seeing mixed comments on this. Obviously I know you cannot predict the future, but wondering what the likelihood would be of testing the lows seen in March. What rationale do you have for your thoughts?

Thanks so much for your wisdom, expertise, and sound advice as it continues to help me navigate these uncharted waters.

Q: Hi there, I saw a long term chart the other day of the S&P500 and how the market typically bottoms, relative to the spike in the VIX. In past recessions/corrections, it appeared that the market tended to bottom out about 2 to 3 months after the VIX has spiked. Based on your experience, do you see this happening again this time around? If so, that would approximately give a mid May to mid June bottom. Do you see this pattern to likely repeat or is it this different this time in your opinion and what would the reasoning be?

Thanks for your input and guidance!

Q: This may be a "crystal ball" question but your view would be appreciated on interest rates in say 5 years. Given the stimulus in place and what more may be needed until the economy really restarts and the borrowing all that entails, do you think rates rise significantly in that period or are we in a lower for longer extension of rates for the foreseeable future. Any factors or variables to consider that you think might affect your answer? Thank you for providing your opinion. Ken

Q: What are the chances of the current economic turmoil leading to Debt Crisis and / Mortgage crisis.

Q: The VIX is below 40 this morning. Is that a sign that the worst is over or are investors becoming dangerously complacent. How does 5I interpret the recent movements of markets.?
Thank You

Q: Negativity re Covid 19 seems to be decreasing and attention may be switching to the economy, beginning with this weeks reports. Everything I'm reading suggests that the massive testing required to safely open the economy just isn't there, and a vaccine is far away. Meaning a later rather than sooner scenario for business as usual. Today's retail numbers and bank earnings have moved the market lower and only reflect March's partial shutdown.Do you see the markets recent Covid 19 optimism, being replaced by economic negativity, with markets deteriorating further towards Q2 numbers. I have a large cash position and cognizant of your buy slowly strategy, but can't help thinking the worse is yet to come.
Thanks Peter.

Q: What instruments do you use to determine an inverted bond yield curve?
Do you think we had one last year?
If an inverted yield curve [bear argument] occurred, what would signal it's reversal [bull argument].

Q: In your update, you say that "if an investor is not an optimist and does not fundamentally believe that the future will be better than the past, it might require a rethink on why one would bother to invest in equities at all.". I am an optimism by nature, but since 2 weeks, I am struggling with the apparent need for the Federal Reserve liquidity. It seems that once again, if central banks had not injected trillions of liquidity, many companies would have gone bankrupt. We could say that this is a "special world event", but, still, you start to wonder if one's optimism for growth is not instead optimism for government support. We just got a glimpse of what corporate high debt levels can do to stocks, small businesses, and even canadian renters. Interesting times!

Q: Good Evening
Two of Canada’s largest private debt funds, Bridging Finance Inc. and Romspen Investment Corp., froze investor redemptions today, the latest sign of COVID-19-related stress in a sector popular with wealthy, income-seeking investors.

Do you see a similar action followed by mutual fund/ ETF companies freezing redemptions if things get worse with respect to COVID -19 ?

Thanks

Q: Hi there, this 2 week rally is starting to look look and feel a V while many market commentators on BNN/Bloomberg/CNBC seem to say we will retest the lows and possibly even go lower - more of like a U or W or L. Obviously the situation we are in as a society and economy is out of the ordinary, but as professional investors, what is your opinion on where we go from here? Is this rally the real deal, or is it a prolonged dead cat bounce? How do we interpret these moves and what are some general signals to watch out for?

Thanks for your guidance!

Q: As the market starts to recover, can you please give your opinion on what sectors do you expect to recover faster than others. Thanks

Q: One of today's questions was about the impending rise of inflation after all this government printing of money and historical government debt. I like to look at history to see similar situations and the outcomes. We only need to look as far a Trudeau Senior to see the last time historical levels of debt were reached. As history shows its usually the next term(s) that has to deal with the repercussions of the spenders reign. So in 1981 under Clark (and then P.Trudeau again after that) inflation went over 10% and prime rate was increased to an all time record of 22.75% to try to bring down inflation. I'm sure everyone remembers either their parents or themselves having mortgages on their homes with rates in the high teens to mid 20% range. So my question is what will be different this time around? After Covid is over we will be sitting with the biggest deficit in Canada's history by miles, massive unemployment so a very slow recovery is likely (more stimulus likely needed). Were there any lessons learned around increasing interest rates to record levels to correct massive inflation or is that the likely path government will take again when this inevitably happens in the next few years? Thx

Q: This is a kind of crystal ball question. I have had trouble getting through to BMO yesterday and today. When I finally got through, the agent told me that one of the reasons for the slowness is that everyone is trying to rig their accounts for option selling. I wonder if this is a signal that the end of options season is getting close. I have made quite a bit of money on options myself in the last couple of months and would like to keep it up. But, I have a nagging worry that although I might make some money on options, if an upturn comes , I may miss out on getting some good companies for the long term. I read an adviser recently, for instance, who predicted that we may not have as long to buy as we think. Things could be turning up in just a few weeks. From your experience, can you give any advice on how to look at this situation and best handle it? What signs to look for when things begin to turn, and how much time will there be to leave one strategy behind and jump on the other. I realise this is a bit like crystal ball gazing. Bu,t, you have more experience that I do in the markets and probably can foresee the future better than I can.
thanks

Q: With China starting to ramp up and the sudden rise in markets over the past week, do you believe the market will stay, drop, or rise? and can you please explain your answer?
Thanks

Q: Someday soon the sun will rise and shine brightly. This new day we will see inflation arrive at our front door with a loud bang. Inflation will arrive quicker than we think due to a significant increase in money being printed from all countries. During inflationary times what sectors are good investments and what companies would excel.
Clayton

Q: Do you think this rally is sustainable? The markets have really rallied lately and was wondering if a guy should lighten up a bit.