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Investment Q&A

Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.

Q: Hi Guys,
If I think the US PMI data may be peaking in the next few months and we could have a global slowdown for 2017 and looking for a few bearish bets, perhaps a few short trades as well. With China now depending on more exports as well as Japan and with a big chunk of those exports coming to the US we could have the 3 largest economies in the world slowing at the same time. This would weaken the demand for crude oil and I think it could revisit the $20's once again. I'm looking for companies that can quickly get in trouble once again if the economy begins to weaken, I'm thinking Teck and Baytex? Do you agree these names will drop in the above noted scenario ?Any other names you might suggest? Looking for weak balance sheets I suppose with too much debt. Thanks
Read Answer Asked by Chris on October 07, 2016
Q: I understand that these 4 stocks are considered growth stocks. Presently I am negative on all four. Is patience required ( long term ?) or would you suggest to switch to other growth stocks and which ones would you recommend. Thanks.
Klaus
Read Answer Asked by Klaus on October 06, 2016
Q: From Oct. 3 : Q: A headline article in Globe and mail " Why it feels like another financial crisis ----" gives a current p/e for the tsx of 23.6 Your macroeconomic report has it at 17. Is this a difference between trailing and forward earnings or am I missing something?/
5i Research Answer:
There is a difference between current and forward earnings multiples. For example, based on data from Thomson Reuters, the current P/E for the TSX is 17.2x and the forward P/E shows 16.7x. Some publishings do not distinguish between forward and current when reporting P/E so one may see differences from time to time. However, the P/E quoted by the Globe looks to be high regardless of the timing perspective. Different services also seem to use different sources of estimates; we do see 23X on some other services, but simply defaulted to Thomson here.

It seems to me that the difference between 17 and 23 is a significant distinction and would indicate the TSX is in overbought territory if the latter is true. A subsequent article in ROB on Oct 4 produced a chart (source Bloomberg) showing the PE ratio for the TSX "Composite" at 23.5 and the highest in 14 years with the widest gap with the US since 2009. Is it possible 5i Research data from Thomson Reuters is utilizing the smaller sample from the TSX "60" or another index to arrive at 17X?
How to know what the true number is for sure?
Read Answer Asked by Jeff on October 06, 2016
Q: Hello 5i,

I currently hold Genworth, and have held it for a few years. I am wondering if after the new mortgage rules announced today if it's worth holding. Considering that 50-55% of their current clientele would be not be eligible for mortgage insurance under the new rules, what adjustments can they do to maintain their current earnings level? Is the dividend safe considering these facts? Is it worth holding considering the constraints to future business under the new rules?

Thank you in advance
Read Answer Asked by Gerasimos on October 05, 2016
Q: Hi Peter & team: Greetings! with reference to Tamara's question regarding who will be next US president, I hold the 3 US stock with total of some 10% gain (that is all I have in US$ and it is about 4% of my portfolio) should I hold or sell? Some money managers still recommend it. SIS I have some 30% gain and it is only less than 2% of my portfolio and you still favour it, should I take some profit? Honestly taking profit is difficult as it increases my total income and I may face a clawback of OAS. Please feel free to take my credit points as I have lots of it! Thank you.
Read Answer Asked by LOUISA on October 04, 2016
Q: I have found that my best returns are when I reduce my portfolio size to 8-10 stocks.I know that according to almost all experts that my portfolio would not be properly diversified.I find that a investor such as myself can not spend the amount of time needed to keep up to a 20 stock portfolio.
The easy answer of course is to hire someone for my investments,but I have unfortunately been burned twice by investment professionals,and unwilling to strike out the third time.
Is there anything wrong with keeping a 8-10 stock portfolio, where I can keep a close watch on the news and the financials.
I personally think that is why your site is so helpful because the average investor do not have the resources and staff of a professional money manager.
Read Answer Asked by Randy on October 04, 2016
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