Investment Q&A

Q: Hi there, I watched an interview this evening with David Rosenberg who was predicting a recession in 2019. My first question is what is your thoughts on this and do you agree with his perspective and second - while I know you are not in favour of timing the market, how would you approach/adjust your portfolio if you believe we were heading into a recession? For a person no fixed income portion, would you stay 100% invested in equities or move into a partial cash position - if so, how much cash? This bull market seems like its in extended innings, however the economy seems to be doing well overall and earnings seem strong. What do you think the best approach for ones portfolio heading into the 2019 or 2020?

Thanks!

Q: It’s becoming increasingly clear Canada is facing challenges on many economic fronts from increasing regulatory burdens, inability to attract foerign capital and sub-national debt at the provincial level. Given that these, among many other, factors make Canada a questionable destination for investment, I’m wondering about your take on what this means going forward. Apart from an increased international focus, are there some Canadian companies doing business in Canada you feel can benefit from a potentially deteriorating economic scenario in Canada. I've recently taken a position in GSY and am considering DOL. Your thoughts on these and other suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

Q: My life is increasingly shifting towards the U.S. (grandchildren live there and my wife is a U.S. citizen and we spend six months ever year there, with more time likely). as such, the U.S. dollar plays a bigger part of our lives. Added to that is my bearish outlook for the Can. Dollar and my belief a recession is becoming more likely. In the event of a global recession, is there any credible scenario in which the Can. dollar would appreciate vs. the Greenback. And could you provide any historical data regarding how the Can.$ fares vs. the U.S.$ in a recessionary situation.

Q: Are there any stocks in particular that will be impacted positively or negatively if the Ndp or Conservatives win the election? I read an article that Andrew Pellar and Brick Brewing might benefit from a Ford government. I assume Hydro might do well under an Ndp government if the buy back the public shares? I would like your best guess and any other companies that could be impacted.
Thank you

Q: My portfolio is up 25% YTD. If my personal goal is 20% / year do I pack it in and sell everything until the next drop?

Q: A lot of banter back and forth and possibly a trade war that could even go Global if it happens .
Can you give me a list of stocks that could be hit the hardest if this happens?

Q: Hi 5i Research,
I am in the process of copying your Balanced Equity Model Portfolio.
So far I have purchased 9 items, but before I go to far, I wonder if perhaps you have some suggestions for me how to go about it the best way ? Any tips and suggestion are appreciated. Thanks for your service and keep it up, I like it.

Q: Why do most Asset Allocation models or discussions include BOND funds or ETFs but not GICs? Is not a laddered portfolio of GICs an alternative ?

Q: I wish to get international equity exposure in my portfolio using XEF or XIN, along with XEC for emerging markets. Currently international exposure is negligible.

What do you think an appropriate international weighting would be in a portfolio that is 90% equity/10% fixed income.

I was thinking 15% developed markets (such as XEF) and up to 5% emerging markets (XEC). Thoughts?

Q: Ian Harnett of Absolute Strategy has talked about Canada being one of the countries most likely to experience severe financial crisis, due to the (high) house price to income ratios. We've been hearing about a decline in housing prices for years but it doesn't happen. But assuming a collapse in house prices WERE to occur, what sectors of the Canadian economy (if any) would be least affected ?

Q: I am new to 5i. My question pertains to portfolio management within 5i portfolios.

I have read your paper on when to sell a security - it is an interesting article. I am wondering if you have a similar paper on when to buy a security? Members who joined at inception have benefited by your portfolios. I am following your BE portfolio and have slowly transitioned my exiting portfolio to resemble your BE portfolio. At the end of last quarter I purchased AIF, ENB, WSP, SJ, SLF, KXS, COV and VB. With the exception of WSP all are underwater.

I have read enough of your posts to gather you avoid market timing and instead take a long view of five or more years. The markets in the USA are late cycle, rising rates, inflation and global tensions are front and center. On several occasions you recommend members raise cash to protect against market downturns however your BE portfolio has a 3% cash weighting .

My question is - do you have a paper on when to purchase securities you have deemed worthy of purchase and how should members raise cash within your portfolios?

Thank you

Q: There's lots of chatter about a secular rotation out of stocks and into bonds. The US 10 year treasury bond has crossed over 3% and lots of speculation about more interest rate increases coming from the Fed. I've seen declines in my bond proxies (REITS, Utilities, Pipelines, Infrastructure, etc.) over the past few weeks but in recent days lots of talk from talking heads and analysts suggesting that the market has peaked and could be time to rotate. What is 5I's position?

Carl

Q: what do you think of david rosenbergs column in todays globe, why this rise in interest rates has me very concerned.
personally i think he is far more correct than wrong.
and please do not answer with for every viewpoint there is an opposing view.
rosenberg backs up his article with facts. dave

Q: Hi Peter
Recently several high profile investment advisors have predicted an "eminent crash" in the markets. Any suggestions on how to protect oneself in these uncertain times. Do you believe a crash is eminent.
Thanks.
Cam

Q: Hello, I would like to have some US dollars for future travel. Is it a good time to change some Canadian into US currency? What is your outlook for each in next 3-6 months? Thanks. Helen

Q: In a well diversified portfolio which one of these three companies would you choose for a long-term hold and with a view of an increased probability for a recession by the end of 2019? Can you please comment on your investment rationale?
Thanks

Q: Hi Peter,

With the TSX not doing much in recent months, are there any sectors in it that are starting to look good? Any sectors that could see some positive movement in the near future? Any recommendations in those sectors? I'm looking for growth with medium to high risk.

Thanks as always. Please deduct as many credits as appropriate.

Q: Hi 5i,
Can you please recommend some good dividend paying Canadian stocks that behave well during recessions. Can you also generalize and comment on the type of stocks that behave well and poorly during recessions.
thanks

Q: I know you are not a fan of market timing. However, with all the action coming from the Mueller investigation of Trump I can't help but digest and interpret the news as a tightening of the noose around Trumps neck. I've gone to 20% cash and might not be done yet. I've committed to sitting here until Mueller resolves one way or the other.

My question is how have markets reacted during previous impeachments (eg. Nixon, Clinton)? Obviously negatively, but to what degree and for how long? Would international equities be less effected?

Best.

Q: I've noticed very divergent opinions on the future of the Canadian dollar versus other currencies. My own opinion is it's headed down but, as you know, these things are difficult to predict especially when unknown political decisions can suddenly change things. Do you have opinions in this area? How do you anticipate the Canadian dollar will perform versus the US dollar, the Euro, the Pound, etc? Do you make recommendations regarding the amount of foreign exposure in investment portfolios based on forex implications. If so, where (US, European, emerging markets, etc.) and what percentage?
Feel free to choose your own time periods if you feel able to answer this.