Investment Q&A

Q: I recently saw Phil Davis suggest that the stock market reacted very negatively during Nixon's presidency when members of his inner circle were indited and that this was a good time to go to mostly cash. Can you please comment on whether you think this is good advice for investors and if it is historically accurate. Any other opinions you have with regard to Trump's presidency affecting the market would also be appreciated. Use as many credits as you think appropriate.

Q: Hi Peter/Ryan,

Most of the companies in the BE portfolio have significant US or Intl exposure in terms of operations/revenue. With a portfolio allocation of Canadian (BEReport) 50%, US (ETF) 30% and Intl (ETF) 20%, the actual allocations will be higher for US and Intl since a portion of BEReport is derived from US or Intl. Please let me know your thoughts and any suggestions in terms of portfolio allocations.

Thanks
Ninad

Q: I am writing in regard to a question posed by John on Jun 25th regarding alternatives to mutual funds that his TD adviser had invested in for he and his wife. We too (my wife and I) WERE invested with a TD adviser up until a year ago. We also had a TD Direct Investing account that we use for investing in stocks. The final straw for remaining with the adviser came in 2017 when TD started charging a yearly fee over and above their MER's when investing in a TFSA. They also stopped allowing us to invest in D series units of mutual funds. We transferred all of our assets to the Direct Investing account and haven't looked back. We are now able to buy any type of mutual fund, ETF, stocks or fixed income product like GIC's that are sold through Direct Investing.
Also, when answering John I believe you may have replied with alternatives to a couple of wrong mutual funds. I believe he was asking about CIF843 (not 842) and FID231 (not2312).

Q: Please suggest weighting for 9 sectors for a balanced Canadian equity portfolio. Exposure for US and Fixed income is elsewhere:
Consumer
Staple
Energy
Financial
Health
Industrials
Technology
Material
Utility

Q: With interest rate hikes seemingly imminent and tariffs not going away for a while, which 3 categories of the 10 following in the Canadian market make the most sense for new money today, especially for immediate short term 1-2 years gratification?
Materials, Consumer Cyclical. Financial Services (includes real estate), Communication Services, Energy, Industrials, Technology, Consumer Defensive Non cyclical, Healthcare, Utilities

Q: I am 75% in equity with less than 10% in Canada, and mostly US with tech emphasis, plus Global and EM. The rest of the 25% is invested with a well known active manager (0.6% MER) of corporate bonds who invested in short-term corp bonds of no more than 2 years duration plus floating rate bonds. No Government or long bonds. With rising interest rate albeit not rapidly over time, bonds are not really a place to be in. Corporate bonds can lose capital as well if there is a significant downturn. What is your view on holding cash in MMF in lieu of corp bonds as a fixed income allocation of a portfolio in the foreseeable future as capital preservation? USD MMF instead of CAD cash?

Q: I’m investing for a parent who is currently 100% in cash, is nearing retirement and has never invested. They will not actually need income for another 3-5 years, but I would like to generate some dividends, so they can see actual cash coming off their investments (this may be reinvested). I think dividends will help psychologically if the equity portion declines as they will at least “be paid to wait” while the market recovers.

I am considering constructing the portfolio as follows:
30% Cash – PSA
50% Bonds – ZAG
10% Equity – International Dividend – PID
10% Equity – International Broad Index – XAW
10% Equity – Canada Growth – 5i

Can you provide 5i’s 2 or 3 highest conviction calls right now. I’m looking for growth at a reasonable price. Not looking for yield, but would like it to at least pay a modest dividend.

I would also be interested in any views you have about the suitability of the portfolio and any alternative / additional suggestions you may have.
If there is a correction in the equity markets in next few years or one of 5i’s A companies slips on a banana peel, I may look to put some of the cash to work and increase the equity potion.

My tactical views are: interest rates will rise with the US leading the way, the US broad equity markets are looking very expensive, Bonds are generally not a good investment and at low rates they will get killed by inflation over the long run (but they reduce volatility).

Also, in terms of allocating these investments between non-registered and TFSA, how should I generally be thinking about this? International stocks and bonds into the TFSA until it’s full and cash and Canadian stocks in the non-registered account? I don’t think they will be making any new contribution so perhaps there is no way to use the RRSP.

I look forward to your thoughts and apologise for asking a multi-part questions. If you start to run out of steam, don’t worry about the tax questions.

Thanks

Q: Seems likely we’re headed for a bit more inflation. Assuming this thesis plays out, which sectors do you think should benefit and which sectors should be avoided? Are there specific companies that could benefit greatly and which companies could be badly hurt?

Q: I like the overview that is provided there.

However, with diversification and sector blends being frequent topics of interest and sources of questions, it would be helpful, at least for me, if 5i were to provide a sector overview each month as well as a frame of reference for managing our own portfolios. For example, technology 25% of TSX in May, up 3% over 2017; etc by sector and in a simple chart format. Any chance of that happening?

In the meantime, where can I find that kind of information. I have looked at the TSX.com website as well as the RBC Direct Investing sites and been unsuccessful.

Thanks for you help and guidance here.

Q: Good morning,
A large portion of my non registered portfolio is comprised of a combination of Mawer Equity funds which over time have all performed very well.

In reviewing the annual performance of these funds, I noticed that the asset under management (AUM) for the Mawer Canadian Equity fund has grown to nearly $3B and that this fund has had difficulty beating its benchmark in the last two years.

My question is whether or not you would recommend switching to another Canadian Equity mutual fund or ETF with a lower AUM amount, lower or equal MER and better performance potential.

Thank you for your thoughts and recommendation.

Q: I am wondering why we would even consider buying Canadian stocks at this time with Donald in power? He looks to kill our economy and realistically could along with many others to make America supposedly great again Thx James

Q: Aside from cash and gold, what do you recommend as defence while the current imbroglio plays out? I am not looking for inverse ETFs or anything like that, just the sort of thing that does a bit better in a potentially tumultuous environment but that can also be a longer term hold. Defensive yes, but no defence sector please. I am looking for individual stocks or general sectoral recommendations. Thank-you.

Q: Any concerns with tech representing 26% of the S&P500 ? Is it time to move to a DOW etf which has a more reasonable 15% tech weighting?

Q: Good Morning, my question is regarding the reclassification of the telecommunication sector and technology sector. What is your opinion on how reclassification will effect the stocks mentioned above. I have read that these stocks will be negatively effected due to repositioning of holdings within funds. Thank you.

Q: Peter and His Wonder Team
My question is about this possibility of a Debt Jubilee. I have been hearing more about this lately. I am not a "doomster" but have studied history long enough to know unusual events can and do occur. So in the USA the debt load on families is extremely high, university loans over a trillion, car loans and mortgages also high and of course local, state and federal government in serious debt. All the while the middle class is shrinking as wages have lagged behind as automation and productivity has steadily increased in the past 20 years. The Republicans have moved to a strong conservative position. At the same time the Democrats continue to promise more hand outs. So the theory goes that in the 2020 election the Democrats may promise Socialized Medicine for all, a Universal Basic Income Monthly Check and a Debt Jubilee which eliminates student and other loans which will be a dream come true for the shrinking middle class. In other words there may be a radical move to the political liberal left so the Dem. can regain power. I know this Debt Jubilee is not a new concept and is attractive to many. If so there will be losers as wealth is redistributed. Your comments pease. If this were to happen where should a little retail investor run? My first thought is gold since inflation and panic should sour.
Thanks!

Q: Our 35 year old son parted ways with his financial advisor and I have been chosen to invest the sizeable cash balance in his rrsp. I get that you discourage market timing. Many are talking about a late 2019 correction; who knows. I can average in over 6 months, but that is little help if the above correction happens. I can average in over 18 months; is this practical. I don't want to be the one responsible if he suffers a large draw down.

Based on your years of successful investing, please help me benefit from that experience and comment what you would do in this situation. The etfs mentioned would be the investment vehicles.
Thank you for your input.

Q: What are your thoughts with respect to research pieces that appear on Seeking Alpha or independent blogs ? On the one hand, I know that the writer typically has a position (which usually dovetails with the tone of the article), so I keep that in mind. However, I also know that "professional" research (from underwriting investment banks) is also biased, so you can't win there either. I was looking for information on Pioneering and found a series of fairly comprehensive write ups on a website that I'd never heard of (www.grey-swan.com). Other than the advice that one should take such information with a "grain of salt", what other factors should one be aware of from independent sources such as this ?

Q: For portfolio diversity using ETFs. what do you think of simply buying VGRO instead of an XAW/PMIF type combo or would you recommend another equity/bond mix?

Q: Would you be able to comment on this article and suggest some defensive strategies to prepare for this?
As always, thanks for your insight.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/beware-the-mother-of-all-credit-bubbles/2018/06/08/940f467c-69af-11e8-9e38-24e693b38637_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.1408c8689773

Q: With Michael's Q on D. Rosenberg interview. What I am curious about was DR's call on the Fed fund rate for next year. He was saying it should be 2.75% now and that this is what it will be next year. As I heard DR he was saying the market is unprepared for this eventuality. So first, do you think that is a reasonable observation i.e. market unprepared for that large a rise? If so, is it enough to cause a 10%-20% pullback?

TIA