Investment Q&A

Q: JPMorgan is predicting a 50% chance of a US recession in the next 2 years. One would likely impact Canadian markets like 2008-9. I started investing in the markets this past April and was up over 6% in a short time until Trump started his tariff tirade and eventual war (plus other contributing factors) and now am down over 8%. It would seem this volatility in the markets will only get worse until it gets better. That said, if I recall correctly, BMO recently came out and predicted a TSX rebound that could hit 17,000 before EOY. I am just trying to figure out should I ride out the storm or jump ship at the next port. Based on your market update, specifically, "Investors should keep in mind this is just one quarter in a journey measured in years.", should one still consider riding out the storm?

Q: Good Morning
Technicals on XBM would indicate that we are entering a growth period for base metals, however, "Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO) on Monday said concerns over Donald Trump's trade war with China is likely to dominate the outlook for commodities in the fourth quarter, predicting the issue could be a drag on markets until the 2020 U.S. election. The bank said that while a new North American trade agreement may decrease uncertainty, the U.S. trade war with China is likely to cut commodity prices for most metals."
What is your stance on base metals for the upcoming period?

Carl

Q: ..thinking American midterm elections may be a catalyst if Dems win and dampen the economic momentum (and associated rate increases) going forward...under that scenario do you think utilities would be a good place for relative safety, yield and a possible rebound? thanks.

Q: While your comments could apply to both our Canadian and US markets it is interesting that your slant appears to lean toward US markets rather than Canadian even though the bulk of your research covers Canadian based companies. Sure the US markets are still up this year but it is quite a different picture when looking at the Canadian markets. We are ' not still up' this year but down since January. Interest in the Canadian equity markets is waning for various reasons, taxes, regulatory hurdles, etc. So could you perhaps add some comments that address our markets and investment environment.in the context of our recent performance and future expectations. Thanks.

Q: I saw the question Murray asked on dividend increases of Canadian banks and it made me curious. Could you provide a historical annualized return combining dividends and capital gains for the same banks over the same 18 years { 2000-2018 } ?

Q: Could I have your thoughts on the current worldwide market sell off, what is driving this and how bad can it get? Is it a short term correction or something bigger to worry about?

Q: What would be your guess, in percentage, of another correction happening now like the one last Jan-Apr? It seems to me that there are more real risks now then there were then (interest rate fears, China tarrifs). Do you think if there are strong earnings in November it would move this market up? For some reason I don't think they would.

Q: Gentlemen, With all the selling going on these days, where is the money going? Not sure if you have any tools that give any indication.

Q: Good Afternoon,
Timely question I suppose with the market weakness today, I think the market is due for some weakness and volatility I'm not overly concerned by this. However, I am wondering what 5i's strategy going forward is in regards to the next recession?Perhaps we will find ourselves in a recession within the next few years, what will your strategy be for the B/E model? Can you see yourselves taking a more defensive stance , i.e raising cash, buying defensive sectors ( telecom, staples etc..) or just riding it out? I know the average recession is only about 9 months in duration.
Thanks very much.

Q: I currently have close to my target geographical weighting, but with the current (global) sell-off and cash in my portfolio I am thinking about going a bit overweight either Europe or Emerging Markets. In terms of value for new buying today, how would you rank Canada versus USA, Europe and Emerging Markets?

Q: Looking at the sell offs/drops on both sides of the border the last week, can you offer any advice? I have a long term outlook, and am ok with some risk. Do you see any stocks (on either side) the present a good buy at current levels that are likely to make a good rebound?

Thanks

Q: It's getting ugly out there. Any general comments about what to do (esp. if you like the gains you've had and don't want to see them just relentlessly evaporate?). I realize I've answered my own question but am still interested in any comments that come to your mind.

Q: Which is more relevant when looking at cash rich companies to invest in; cash per share or 5 year cash growth rate?

Q: Good evening
A recent article in the Financial Times identified the simple ETF portfolio as having 3 equal components - global value ETF, global momentum ETF and a global small-cap ETF. The author provided statistical support. Please advise which ETFs [global or US] you would recommend for each one.
Thanks

Q: Hi there,

The last week has had a mass sell of in stocks - particularly the tech sector - do you think this is another dip and then the bull market will be back to the races? Or is there going to be a long term downward correction? I know no one knows the actual answer but in your opinion and with your experience and expertise, what are your thoughts?

Thanks!

Q: Hi, is today a buying opportunity, or has there been some fundamental news regarding the markets causing this downward momentum? Can you comment please on latest remarks from IMF regarding global financial instability? Thanks

Q: Happy Thanksgiving to All! I am doing a little portfolio clean up. These are the names I am considering selling: Atco (ACO), Barrick (ABX), Census (CVE), Stantec (STN). Are any still worth holding? Why? Can you offer replacement ideas within the same sector? I am about a decade from retirement and prefer stocks with a (growing) dividend, and also have potential for price appreciation. I have a buy and hold investment style.

Q: Generally, if you took out the rise of pot stocks from the TSX year to date, where would the bourse be at today?

15,800 maybe? Or is the sector not that influential yet?

Q: From today's Globe and Mail: Equity markets opened lower Thursday as global bond yields surged higher. Mehul Daya, an analyst from South Africa-based Nedbank, believes bond yields are approaching the “Rubicon level,”

“The JPM Global Bond yield, after being in a tight channel, has now begun to accelerate higher. There is scope for the JPM Global Bond yield to rise another 20- 30bps, close to 2.70%, which is the ‘Rubicon level’ for global financial markets, in our view. If the JPM Global Bond yield rises above 2.70%, the cost of global capital would rise further, unleashing another risk-off phase."

Normally, 'risk off' means purchasing the very stocks which perform badly during rising rates, ie. dividend stocks. That would not seem to make much sense here. What sectors do you believe would be most and least affected by these rising bond yields? I know it supposedly helps the banks and insurers but we have been hearing that all year without much sustained impact on their stock prices. So I'm uncertain where to put new money.

Q: Hi Peter, know as the nafta deal is over where do you see our Canadian $$ against US. $$$. Thanks Alnoor