Investment Q&A

Q: Peter, if the FED rate is lowered significantly due to the desire of the administration but US inflation picks up due to tarrifs etc, which sectors will benefit the most ? Is it hard assets like materials (metals & other commodities) and gold ? What about oil, real estate, and financials ? Would the knock on effect in Canada be similar ? Thank you.

Q: Everyone, is this a good time to sit quiet and listen to the noise? Clayton

Q: Hello Peter and 5i Team,

We have to trim our exposure to AI. It has been a good ride and the time is right to take a little profit to reduce the risk in this sector. We added a little to our small cap and mid-cap ETF's to align with the 5i theory that markets may have some runway yet.

For the remaining funds could you let us know which of the two strategies that we should use?

1. We do not have any dividend stocks. Are there any high dividend (4%+) stocks in the US or Canada that have been hit recently, and thus, may be able to avoid depreciation of their current value if the markets turn south (5%-10%)? We would consider those stocks as safer dividend stocks to purchase now.

2. The other option is to continue with our standard default that purchases PSA and BIL as a default safe play when markets are high. Those funds are deployed back into sectors that get obliterated on a pullback. This strategy is 12%-15% of our portfolios.

Thank you
D&J

Q: What do you think about going into cash until the end of September? I understand that for most people, the advice is to stay invested and weather the course to avoid missing up days. I also appreciate that you do not advocate market timing. However, my thinking is as follows:

a) historically September is a poor month for the markets - 55-60% of the time the market is down in September;

b) since we've had an excellent year, maybe the odds of a draw down are higher this year. It also appears that the USA may not provide a rate cut due to inflationary pressures which would be a big disappointment;

c) selling now protects gains from a pullback. While this does incur a tax liability, I would rather have a big gain and pay tax than suffer a draw down (and miss the change to buy back lower);

d) if one is in cash, any pull back present golden buying opportunities;

What are your thoughts?

Jason

Q: In terms of positioning, the easiest answer is to just rebalance and trim some areas that have done well over the last few months and add to more defensive areas like fixed income or maybe more value oriented areas.

This is what 5i responded to an earlier question. In your view, what would those « more value oriented «  areas be?
Thanks as always

Q: Question for Peter only.

After going through multiple recessions, depressions and big drops in the market do you or your cohorts have a reasonable guess when the next one may occur and what would cause it?

The day, month & year it might happen?

How big a drop percentage wise?

How long will it last?

Would Ai be able to come up with an answer to this?

Thank you.

Q: Is it possible that, since technologies ( and even bitcoins) are so widely popular with the hope for big future gains ,this trend would direct less money towards more traditional sectors as utilities and energy ,then generating interesting opportunities ?

Q: I have been reading about "Stablecoins" in recent articles re Crypto. Do you see Stablecoins replacing cash as official currencies around the world? How much , in your estimation, do you see the Genius Act, the bipartisan bill recently passed in congress, will it effect the financial world as we know it?

Q: Hi again
What is 5iii s overview on holding a VIX position ?
What ETF would be your CDN (hedged) and USA recommendations ?

Q: When is it considered a market correction? I currently have money sitting on the side lines, waiting to buy a discount but unsure if a 5% drop is validated as a true “discount”. Would YOU be waiting for a certain drop in percentage before buying a dip? I understand that involves perfect timing which is impossible. Any help is appreciated. Thanks

Q: Everyone, were do you see interest rates by the end of the year? Clayton

Q: Everyone, what do you see for the remaining part of 2025? Clayton

Q: I read an opinion piece in the Globe & Mail on July 25/25 titled "A billion-dollar bet on artificial intelligence is about to hit reality." The gist of the article was that companies are pouring billions of $'s into AI on the premise that it will "lift global GDP by trillions, create entirely new industries and transform how we work." That is to say, the underlying bet is that machines will eventually deliver what humans can’t: scale, speed and 24/7 output. The author believes that while there will be some benefit from AI, it will not be as big as people believe. He says, user results to date remain mixed. More than 80 per cent of businesses using AI technology are not yet seeing significant earnings gains, and most (new) AI deployments have a failure rate of up to 80 per cent. Yet, the spending keeps increasing even though results underwhelm. An MIT economist and Nobel Laureate Daron Acemoglu estimates AI may lift U.S. GDP by a mere 1.1 per cent to 1.6 per cent over a decade, translating to annual productivity gains of 0.05% (nowhere near the level implied by current valuations). If this opinion turns out to be true, I'm wondering if the (tech) market is setting itself up for a massive fall or correction down the road (not unlike the dot com bubble burst of 2000). I'm curious as to what 5i's view is?

Q: When I short stocks I start at the top and work my way down. Currently I am looking at problems in the U.S. economy which I think are somewhere between serious and more than serious. In this case I am looking at how a slowdown in consumer spending will dovetail with sectoral effects of tariffs and international policy responses to tariffs. So I have two sectors in mind for shorting, agriculture and manufacturing. Agriculture seems difficult because many of the companies seem to have been hit already. But if that continues it could put a squeeze on Potash. More interesting, at least to me, is the potential double (triple?) whammy that will be felt by U.S. automakers with a weakening economy, higher input prices and a less than favourable international sentiment landscape. These latter issues point me to shorting GM rather than Ford because I don't want to pay the higher divvy on Ford while waiting for the thesis to play out.
Apologies for the overly long question, but what do you think of my overall thesis, and specifically GM as a short and are there any other sectors and/or companies that you feel are vulnerable right now. Thank-you.

Q: A colleague of mine, who is both a student of history and risk adverse, has suggested there are significant parallels between what is occuring in the market today and market conditions leading up to the 1929 great depression. In particular, he points to what he believes to be grossly inflated p/e values across all sectors of the North American market. I do not share his views and would be interested in your thoughts - backed up with a few pertinent statistics - regarding both my colleague's historical comparison to the late 1920s and current p/e values. (I am well aware books could be written on this subject, so looking for just your top-line opinion.) Thank you.

Q: How often do you change the companies included under the "Best Stock Ideas" tab?

What are the general criteria for inclusion?

Thanks,
John

Q: You often speak of money on the sidelines. I understand the logic of this as people want higher returns and eventually get lured back to equity markets. But can you provide some granularity of where the sidelines are? Are we talking GICs, Bonds, cash, Gold, money market funds or what?
What do you think about the thesis that investments in money market funds simply never come back to equities but rather move from shorter to longer duration vehicles?
When speaking of this move to the sidelines, are we talking mostly about individual investors? And finally where is this information available?
Thank-you.

Q: So I’m thinking if Trump imposes a 15 % tariff on all countries , how is Canada’s competitiveness changed for all countries except the US ?
Under CUSMA 90% of all trade in goods are tariff free. It will be the renegotiation of this agreement in 2026 to be most important.
How’s my thinking? Thanks. Derek

Q: An advisory service that I follow on X seems reasonable and has made the following comment today which I have seen variations of popping up with more frequency:

"Markets speak louder than headlines.

If good news can’t lift prices, risk is rising.
If bad news can’t sink prices, a bottom is forming.

Distribution has been underway for 2-3 weeks, lots of weakness under the hood. The indices are the last to roll over."

Is 5i of the mind that the market is running out of gas in the near term and poised for a pullback? I know that you are tilted more bullish in the long term but would you suggest waiting on new deployment today on the assumption that comments like the above are correct or at least likely? If you could explain in detail whether you agree or disagree I would appreciate it.

Q: Further to some news commentaries today, do you have any thoughts on market reaction if Trump discontinues trade negotiations with Canada and just imposes a flat tarriff? If that does happens can you suggest some income stocks that are potentially less at risk? Thank you