Investment Q&A

Q: Jennifer Gauthier in the Globe presented an article indicating that some of the key drivers of consumer price growth are declining. ie. oil (WTI) drops below $100, wholesale gas price drops 7%, lumber prices are a fraction of their pandemic peak, freight rates on major shipping routes have fallen 40% since September 2021 but remain a lot higher than pre-pandemic rates.

By contrast, Eric Lascelles Chief Econ. At RBC Global Asset Mgmnt. is quoted as saying that inflation has spread to a wide range of products rather than just a few key drivers and he believes that inflation has not yet peaked.

I have a few questions after reading it.

Do you agree with these assessments?

I suppose the way to know that inflation has peaked is to see it drop. Would it be unlikely to rise soon after once the market signals it’s peaked?

At the peak, do you see any sectors rising quicker than others?

Do GIC rates quickly start coming down once the peak is signaled?

Q: Do you see any upside for this ETF in the year or two.

Q: What would be safe bond ETFs with decent dividends for the next 2 or 3 years.

Q: In this uncertainty in the market is gic a good place to invest in?

Q: Perhaps a bit out of your ballpark, but related to thoughts about bond markets.

I am currently on a floating mortgage which was very attractive a couple of years ago. That is going up, of course, but locking in would be about 2-3% higher.

You can't predict the future, but what do you see as the wise choice here? Stick with the floating rate or bite the bullet and lock in for the next 3-4 years?

Q: Have losses on ZAG in a cash account. In your opinion, would selling ZAG and buying XFR (suggest a better one?) be a good move right now and pass the superficial loss test?
Many thanks.

Q: I found this article in today's globe quite surprising:

Banks block online sale of cash ETFs that compete with bank savings products

I hope there is sufficient outrage to get banks to change their practice. I am amazed that they can get away with this.

Q: Currently, Invesque 6% convertible debentures series V are trading at about $83 US ( on the TSX). They mature on 30-Sep-2023 at $100, i.e. about 15 months from now.
This corresponds to a fabulous annualized Yield to Maturity of roughly 21%.
In your opinion, what is the risk that Invesque will default in the payment of these debentures? Does this seem to be a good risk to reward?
Thanks!

Q: As a follow up on Maria's question on June 29th.
Do bond prices differ from broker to broker?
Are some platforms more specialized for bonds than others?

Q: Hi 5i team,

If you were to do a bond ETF portfolio to complement equity and other holdings, what (Cdn-listed) ETFs would you choose for balanced exposure to a range of market environments? Long-term registered account. I am thinking:

XBB--Canadian universe
VGAB--Global universe
XSTP--Short term US inflation-linked government

Thanks.

Q: I can get 5% + annual return to maturity on many triple B+ rated corporate bonds in the 6-8 year time frame. Do you see much risk of default or other issues with corporate bonds with companies like Enbridge, TD, Loblaws, and BCE? (I realize their face value will fluctuate as interest rates go up or down)

Q: Many months ago, everybody and their brother was predicting interest rate increases, so I sold the bond funds in my RRSP (primarily ZAG) and bought short term bond funds like ZST and XFR. And for some fun /an experiment, I bought some TBF. I try not to time the equity market (as per your sage advice), but I could not resist with bonds (because it seemed like everyone was convinced about the interest rate direction). Good news is that TBF is up 22% YTD; and ZAG is down 13% YTD, but I do not understand why I do not hear anyone promoting TBF as a solution for this rising rate environment. What am I missing? Is there a liquidity risk for sellers when the rates start to flatten out; or is there a significant and quick price plunge risk; or...??? Thanks in advance for your comments.

Q: Hi, GIC rates are increasing. Where do you see them in 6, 9, 12, 18, 24 months? Any strategy to propose, laddered approach ? Most 1Y GIC now have the highest rate, but probably too soon to buy ?

Q: Based on your best guess, how high do you think Prime rate can go and at what level will the 5 yr Canadian bond yield stabilized?

If the 5 yr Canada bond yield was to increase above say 5%, would it trigger a much larger stock market correction? There was not many alternatives to the stock market over the last many years in view of the very low rates. It seems to be changing to fight inflation. I am curious of you general comments on this. Thank you!

Q: Hi, further to your reply on real return bonds to Alex on April 28th, I am trying to understand the return I could expect to receive on XRB from the underlying bonds vs. the inflation component.

For XRB, Blackrock currently shows the weighted average coupon at 2.33% and the the weighted YTM (coupon plus amortized realized gain/loss) at 3.43%. My understanding is that YTM is the true measure of bond return. If I bought this ETF could I theoretically expect to receive a 3.43% return from the underlying bonds in addition to an annual principal increase from inflation. So if inflation averaged 3% per year could I expect 3.43% YTM plus 3% inflation principal increase = 6.43% total annual return. Is that generally how it would work? Also would the annual principal increase just be added to the NAV of the ETF?

Thanks.

Q: Hi team,

The Globe recently published an article on high-interest savings account ETFs. It included this sentence: "A recent report by Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) Capital Markets pegs the after-fee yield from these funds at between 1.8 and 1.9 per cent, which is far better than most other cash alternatives available to the typical investor."

Link: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/article-this-cash-parking-spot-for-investors-has-never-looked-better/

Does this look right to you? I'm seeing more like 0.6% as the yield on these products.

Thanks.

Q: Based of a previous comment from you, I bought ZRR as a hedge against rising interest rates. I am down 10% since buying it. Perhaps I misunderstood what you said. Why is it dropping? Thanks.

Q: What do you recommend for high yield short term savings?

Q: I have held XSB in my fixed income portion of my RRSP for a year now down 7% plus dividend. In your opinion with rates maybe peaking this year would a move to XLB or CBO make sense or just hold XSB. Will not be touching for 4 years.

Thanks

Q: hello 5i:
A search of this DB indicates only one previous question asked.
At a 6% yield, a chart that doesn't show much volatility at all, and knowing you like the company and its management, it seems to be a security that would garner much more attention. Can you run through the pros and cons of buying /owning it? The current price looks attractive (to the untrained eye). We already own shares of ECN, and did very well with it over the years.
thanks
Paul L