Investment Q&A

Q: From today's Globe and Mail: Equity markets opened lower Thursday as global bond yields surged higher. Mehul Daya, an analyst from South Africa-based Nedbank, believes bond yields are approaching the “Rubicon level,”

“The JPM Global Bond yield, after being in a tight channel, has now begun to accelerate higher. There is scope for the JPM Global Bond yield to rise another 20- 30bps, close to 2.70%, which is the ‘Rubicon level’ for global financial markets, in our view. If the JPM Global Bond yield rises above 2.70%, the cost of global capital would rise further, unleashing another risk-off phase."

Normally, 'risk off' means purchasing the very stocks which perform badly during rising rates, ie. dividend stocks. That would not seem to make much sense here. What sectors do you believe would be most and least affected by these rising bond yields? I know it supposedly helps the banks and insurers but we have been hearing that all year without much sustained impact on their stock prices. So I'm uncertain where to put new money.

Q: Hi Peter, know as the nafta deal is over where do you see our Canadian $$ against US. $$$. Thanks Alnoor

Q: I sold dol recently. I'm down 8% on ccl and 5% on pbh. Both have been week lately which is driving crazy while the US markets grow. I'm tempted to sell these 2 and replace with ba, ita, grub.

Your thoughts please.

Q: How does the unwinding of the Fed's balance sheet impact the bond market?

Q: Thank you for your HUV recommendation. I am looking for a "short/bear" type ETF or stock to protect against downside. Would you suggest any strategy.

Q: These tech stocks have been under pressure recently. Is a rotation out of the Tech sector underway. Thanks.

Q: Do you have any feel for what is going on with the TSX, one would think that resolution of the NAFTA issue would have settled down canadian markets but they seem to continue their downward movement. Thanks

Q: I know you've made sector percentage allocation recommendations in the past (always with caveats), but i can't seem to find them. So I apologize for what will no doubt be repetitive for you. What sector allocation percentages would you recommend for a retiree with no immediate needs for cash but needing to keep things pretty conservative due to advancing age and increasing health issues? I will keep your reply on file!

Q: The TSX appears to be shrugging off the US/Canada trade agreement without much interest, once again by far the worst performing north American index. Are you surprised at the lack of response? Would you expect much going forward or should money be moved into US markets?

Q: Feeling that Canadian stocks were due for a post NAFTA bounce, I am "all in " on Canada. My thinking is that while some companies and sectors will get an immediate boost, there is also a good chance that other Canadian companies, even ones that don't benefit too directly from NAFTA, will get another look over the medium (3 months to 1 year) term due to the improved stability of the investment environment. Obviously things can happen, but, in gneral, does this scneario make sense to you? Thank-you.

Q: A U.S. based financial advisor who specializes in ETF’s and is bearish on the market states in his weekly newsletter that a retired individual should hold an equivalent percentage of bonds as their age in their portfolio:

What would be your thoughts on this degree of allocation and what would you suggest?

Would your allocation change if the individual has already accumulated sufficient capital to take them to the end and still leave a nice inheritance?

If you do think that a retiree should have a percentage of bonds in their portfolio can you provide some ETF’s?

Thank you for considering my questions.

Q: Hi 5i Team,
At the recent Toronto Money Show, David Rosenberg advised that the leading indicators he monitors are showing signs of an economic slowdown. He advised people to become defensive. My question is what does he mean by defensive and how does a retail buy and hold investor do this. Would it be possible to give examples of defensive sectors and stocks?

Thanks and regards,
Danny

Q: Interest rates (as reflected in the 10 year U.S. T-bond) are up again today.
Canadian term deposit rates are at the same time starting to make me feel all pink and fuzzy. Over the last while I've started to build a ladder of rate reset preferred shares (5 yr with a floor) mixed with term deposits of varying durations, and at the same time moving slowly out of common stocks except for special situations. Good idea or too short-sighted?
(Full disclosure, I am very much a senior). Thank you.

Q: After the 2008 recession, which stocks/commodities made the quickest comeback. Also, which market US or Canada?

Q: can you help me understand why a stock earning 6% dividend and growing the dividend annually by 4% is not as good as a stock earning 4% and growing the dividend annually by 6%

Q: when i started investing 40 years ago i remember watching a young mario gabelli who was everywhere saying NEVER FIGHT THE TAPE.
i bring this up in relation to the marijuana stocks, when all this started i agreed with you, but about 3 months ago i stopped fighting the tape and joined the party and i have made a huge killing but also my year, i am mostly out now, so my question is you constantly talk about momentum, new highs etc etc but you never participated, imagine what mj could have done to your portfolios, why. dave

Q: I know that no one can predict the next market correction/ recession, but with the Yield curve getting quite close to inverting, being this long in the cycle, and low unemployment, how cautious should I be at this time.

I normally just continue investing every couple months.

With your advice I feel quite diversified across many sectors with some international investments in as well. That being said, is now or ever a good time to trim a little bit of everything have have cash ready for the next crash.

Would you ever invest in an inverse ETF during a market crash/correction, or is cash the better holding during that time?

If I think a crash may come in the next few months what percentage of cash would be an acceptable amount.

Thanks, Colin.

Q: I just read the report by Eric Lascelles and the team of economists at RBC (Sept 7/18).They give a 1% probability to a modernized NAFTA that produces positive economic outcomes. All the other scenarios are negative with the highest probability (35%) given to the US getting all their demands with of course negative economic effects for all parties. Given this, a sane person has to wonder why we are even discussing changing NAFTA. As investors though, are we better to ignore all of this and assume well managed Canadian companies will adjust and emerge competitive once they know the new rules, or should we try to be more proactive. I am assuming you lean toward the former.
Your thoughts are appreciated.
Mike

Q: Trudeau's Canada is dead for business. No Pipelines, he wants to wean off Tar Sands, farmers can't get grain to markets Railways too busy hauling Oil, major international Oil Companies have left Canada, Why would any International Company want to expand into Canada ?, Uncertainty towards NAFTA is overhang to stock markets. Do we have to wait for Conservatives to come to power for our Stock Markets to improve. I guess the alternative is to be fully invested in the USA , Frustrated Investor RAK.

Q: My question is 2 part.
I am a long term investor, ok with risk and fluctuations and no need for the cash anytime soon.
Ive read a few of your comments regarding some hesitation towards emerging markets. Would you sell out of VEE or do you see it doing something positive soon?
What do you think about buying into one of the trillion dollar companies now? I was hoping for a dip on Amazon, but that doesnt seem likely to happen. Do you have a favorite? Would you reccomend using the proceeds from VEE to do this or keeping VEE and using new money?