Investment Q&A

Q: Hi 5i,

Has there ever been a time (in relatively modern history) that the central banks have actually been raising rates in a recession?

For all the talk the banks have done about raising rates, very little has actually been done.

Thanks!
David

Q: Hi Team,

Something doesn't add up to me:

1. The USD has been exceptionally strong why are commodities also so strong (I think it might be a supply/supply chain issue)?

2. Wholesale inventories are also very high (stocking up due to supply chain fears)?

I feel that the inflation is artificial and once consumers reach the limit they can afford there will be massive demand destruction and disinflation/deflation as inventories are overstocked.

What is going on?

Q: What signs can be identified and where can they be found to illustrate that inflation fears have peaked? It will be obvious to some but I don't want to miss the boat.
Thanks for sharing your experience, wisdom and judgement. We recognize that it has been a tough slog for 5i over the past few months.

Q: Hello!

I'm fully invested in the market (just turned 30) and have a small cash cushion on the side. I'm making 6 figures and have all my RRSPs in indexes and TFSA in growth stocks. Went from $100,000 to $65,000 in the last few months in that acct. I wont be using any of the money I'm investing for 10+ years and I'm not really bothered by the drops. My plan is to keep investing monthly in indexes and your picks for my TFSA and non registered account. I will not be selling. Is this a good plan ? Anything else high-level I should be aware of. PS I have no debt and can save half my income and my job is very secure!

Q: Good morning, I kept almost all my growth stocks thinking I'll ride it down as usual but it's a bit worst than I thought, instead should have trimmed more to the like of NVDA and SHOP and a few others. Down over 12.6% from high so far. Everything seems to being priced for recession. Panic selling has not started yet just a slow drift down. Market could go down considerably more from here. Like 10 to 20% and we won't hear the bell.
Starting to get jittery. Your view on this assumption please?
Thanks for the great service!

Q: Inflation/recession fears are putting pressure on stocks. Rising interest rates, with even more increases to come, are putting pressure on bonds. Looking a few years out, what would be your stock/bond weighting today for a balanced portfolio with the hope of earning 4+% per year? And of your bond weighting, do you still prefer short vs long? Thanks.

Q: With interest rates on the rise how will this affect dividend paying stocks, dividend funds and ETFs. If not positive for this sector, what sector do you feel in your wisdom will benefit most?

Q: The Canadian energy sector is taking a hit today (Apr 21) despite oil prices being up. What's behind this? Is it falling in sympathy with general commodities (metals, agriculture), which are also plummeting today?

Q: Wanting to add some large cap growth stocks to my large cap utility, bank, pipeline,infrastructure, portfolio as new money becomes available. Growth seems to be out of favour so am seeing this as a time to buy with a 2 year window.

You often advise waiting for a declining stock to show some strength, or at least to start building a base before stepping in. I find this difficult on 2 aspects. Technically, how do I determine when to buy a declining stock in this market ? Psychologically, I hold off on buying when the stock declines further, thinking the decline will continue, and if the stock moves upward I get get frustrated believing that I missed the boat . Do former “ favourites “ such as the 2 above lose their shine even when the markets recover ? Which of these would you purchase first ?
Thanks. Derek

Q: Hi team,

Grateful if you could develop your answer to Chris April 19 and provide your full list of buy-and-forget stocks both in Canada and USA in order of preference and with suggested entry price.

With appreciation,

Jacques ISD

Q: during a recession, could you give me your opinion as to the sectors which are most defensive. some eg. would be appreciated thanks

Q: Hello Peter
This is a predictive question.Do you think these 4 index , TSX . Dow Jones,S&P 500 and NASDAQ will be higher or lower the beginning of the year 2022 ? No rush to answer.
Pease deduct as many credit that you feel is appropriate.
Thanks

Q: Mark Leonard said this a while ago:
"When really good companies start trading at 5 and 6 times revenues, it’s time to start worrying.. I hope our shareholders are never in that position.."
Your company data shows CSU trading at 9 times sales. Should we worry?
Mike

Q: Good Day to 5I team: With banks trending down I am down about 7% but still with a 4% dividend.With VRIF my core retirement income holding also in a downward trend am down about 5% with a 4% dividend. Would you consider one or the other a sell for tax loss and. Investing proceeds in a 1 year gic at 2.45% to take shelter from what may or may not transpire into a resession and redeploy funds when markets look better? Which do you feel has a better chance of revovery?

Q: over the past 5 years, I've noticed when QQQ takes a decent dip, it climbs hard after. Do you believe we have seen the worst of this dip? And if not, when would you feel comfortable entering?

Q: If the fear of higher interest rates was causing the share prices of tech companies to fall, why would share prices rise today (April 13) with the announcement of a 0.5% rate increase?
Puzzled...Steve

Q: Consensus is that a recession is coming, question is when. When the recession hits will that be a precursor to a bear market? If so will that be cyclical or secular?
You recently answered a question stating that recessions typically last less than a year. If so that would suggest it may be a precursor to a cyclical bear market but not a secular (multi year??) bear market.
Many pundits suggest we are in the late innings of a secular bull market, which started in 2009, I wonder whether this imminent recession would be the precursor to a pending secular bear market, thoughts?

Q: Hi 5iTeam,

I would like to find out how stock markets did in times of high interest and inflation rates. Would you please shed some lights as to how the US and Canadian stock markets did in late 1970s and early 1980s.

And indeed if there were significant pullbacks during these periods, how long then did it take for the markets to recover.

As always thanks for your invaluable service.

Best Regards,
H

Q: Hi, At times like these when positions at companies like Shop and Nvda are eroded..when does it make sense to add? Should one wait until the interest rate cycle is over and wait for the tides to turn? What indications should you look out for for growth stocks to rebound? Thanks. Shyam

Q: Hello

This question is mainly for Peter because of his long experience.

It is obvious that rates will rise significantly in 2022 and maybe 2023 due to high inflation. And at the same time it also seems very likely that there will be a recession in 12 to 18 months. My question is how can central banks react in such an environment? Will they start cutting rates when the recession is on the horizon or is it possible that they will leave them stable for a more or less extended period, even in a recession?

Thanks