Q: MRE
I wish to get your opinion on MRE Q4. LNR also missed recently. AM was OK. MG missed but was positive on outlook so went higher.
Scotia says:
■ MRE reported Q4/12 adjusted EPS of $0.15 (excluding $0.23 in severance costs, restructuring charges, and customer chargebacks), which was below our estimate of $0.19
and consensus of $0.17.
Implications
■ The miss vs. our forecast was on sales (largely North America). D&A was also higher than we expected, resulting in a lower gross margin (including D&A) vs. our forecast. The miss
vs. consensus was on margins, partially offset by better-than-expected sales.
■ Q1/13 guidance a bit light. MRE expects sales (excluding tooling) of $700M-$720M and EPS of $0.22-$0.26. This compares to our estimates of $782M and $0.26, respectively. Q1/13 consensus EPS is $0.25.
■ Operational update. Shelbyville is experiencing improved throughput with less overhead and labour. The facility was profitable in February and cash flow positive in January.
Continued operating improvements are expected. Hopkinsville is improving but not yet profitable.
■ Our take. We are encouraged that operations in Kentucky are improving. Overall, we do not anticipate material changes to our investment thesis.
I wish to get your opinion on MRE Q4. LNR also missed recently. AM was OK. MG missed but was positive on outlook so went higher.
Scotia says:
■ MRE reported Q4/12 adjusted EPS of $0.15 (excluding $0.23 in severance costs, restructuring charges, and customer chargebacks), which was below our estimate of $0.19
and consensus of $0.17.
Implications
■ The miss vs. our forecast was on sales (largely North America). D&A was also higher than we expected, resulting in a lower gross margin (including D&A) vs. our forecast. The miss
vs. consensus was on margins, partially offset by better-than-expected sales.
■ Q1/13 guidance a bit light. MRE expects sales (excluding tooling) of $700M-$720M and EPS of $0.22-$0.26. This compares to our estimates of $782M and $0.26, respectively. Q1/13 consensus EPS is $0.25.
■ Operational update. Shelbyville is experiencing improved throughput with less overhead and labour. The facility was profitable in February and cash flow positive in January.
Continued operating improvements are expected. Hopkinsville is improving but not yet profitable.
■ Our take. We are encouraged that operations in Kentucky are improving. Overall, we do not anticipate material changes to our investment thesis.