Q: Great article: The Other Side - April 19, 2017 by Michael Batnick
http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2017/04/19/the-other-side/
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http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/12.jpg
Excerpt:
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If I were in the business of picking stocks, I would do two things: I would try to exclude the worst stocks rather than attempt to pick the best, and I would focus on value, which are really two sides of the same coin.
While the best performing stocks from year-to-year are all over the map, from deep value to high beta and everything in between, the worst performing stocks over time share similar characteristics. So maybe it’s not such a bad idea to be a closet indexer after all, except you should try to be in the closet that screens out stocks that are highly levered, have growing accruals, inventory build, or whatever metrics you prefer.
Investors are drawn to glamour stocks because the payoffs can be huge. But while they have great possibilities, they also have bad probabilities, as Patrick has shown. The best performing glamour stocks outperform by 112% on average, but the median result is underperformance of 11%. The best performing value stocks on the other hand, saw a 78% average excess return, while the median saw a 5% average excess return.
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Comments? As usual, thank you for sound advise.
http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2017/04/19/the-other-side/
See/Insert graph:
http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/12.jpg
Excerpt:
...
If I were in the business of picking stocks, I would do two things: I would try to exclude the worst stocks rather than attempt to pick the best, and I would focus on value, which are really two sides of the same coin.
While the best performing stocks from year-to-year are all over the map, from deep value to high beta and everything in between, the worst performing stocks over time share similar characteristics. So maybe it’s not such a bad idea to be a closet indexer after all, except you should try to be in the closet that screens out stocks that are highly levered, have growing accruals, inventory build, or whatever metrics you prefer.
Investors are drawn to glamour stocks because the payoffs can be huge. But while they have great possibilities, they also have bad probabilities, as Patrick has shown. The best performing glamour stocks outperform by 112% on average, but the median result is underperformance of 11%. The best performing value stocks on the other hand, saw a 78% average excess return, while the median saw a 5% average excess return.
...
Comments? As usual, thank you for sound advise.
