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Investment Q&A

Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.

Q: from p hodson moments ago.......

"Unfortunately we think too many investors are playing individual stocks and not following a portfolio approach"

bingo!

if you have a balanced portfolio, you hold 25 individual stocks averaging 2 - 5% each

on a 500k portfolio, if you had 5% in CXR and bought at the peak ($117) and sold today at $12.17 you would have lost $22,500 (ish)

on an absolute basis $22,500 hurts, yet a portfolio loss of 4.5% is nothing

even with this loss, chances are some of the other 24 issues were up and you clipped a few divvies and likely your portfolio is flat to + 3 - 4% ytd

yet people are greedy and contrary to accepted wisdom want to
over buy the most risky of assets

and then 'double down' to 'get back my money'.....

5I is not a baby sitting service; sometimes you must put on your big boy panties and learn to read a chart or at a minimum institute a system which will allow you to cut your losses

history repeats again and again and yet again

don't look now but the north American equity markets are at all time highs and sitting on deflating earnings and increasingly lower breadth......

maybe 4.5% was a gift; a wake up call as it were

cheers
Read Answer Asked by Robert on August 16, 2016
Q: I should have dumped CXR immediately after receiving your email on Friday, but incorrectly assumed that the 20% drop at the time was as bad as it would get and that I would just wait until I made some other portfolio tweaks next quarter.

I've decided that I am going to replace CXR with BIIB. Would I be best to do this immediately or wait another quarter? Can CXR really go any lower? Perhaps it will get a bounce and outperform BIIB in the short term as value investors move in?
Read Answer Asked by Andrew on August 16, 2016
Q: I am still invested in CXR.
1) Is CXR going to be bankrupt, or what is the probability of it happening.
2) The current prices are too cheap for a company that has a decent revenues. Missing a quarter earnings and a lower forecast for 2016 is not something that hasn't happened before. I see a reason to be invested in it for say another 2 yrs. Is that reasonable.
3) Is there a thesis to hold rather than selling off now.
Read Answer Asked by Vinod on August 15, 2016
Q: Please help me to understand that if 5I doesn t have any more intel on company management than that of the avg investor,what is the benifit of membership?
I, like so many others in this forum have been ambushed with the recent developments and incurred losses leaving me disillusioned
with 5 I research.
I really thought that with 5 i"s connections to the market they had more insight,(cxr hasn't been the only surprise)
Please understand I am not blaming 5i for this,it was my decision at the end of the day. I just don't see the benifits of renewing my membership.

Thank you for the education.
Read Answer Asked by ron on August 15, 2016
Q: With the devastating losses I’ve suffered on CXR (-85%) and PHM (-80%) my holdings in the healthcare sector are down to 5%. I was considering purchasing some IBB to bring it up a bit. After my experience with CXR and PHM I’ve become a bit worried about owning individual healthcare names and am now feeling more inclined to want the safety and diversification of an ETF. How do you feel about IBB or do you have any other suggestions? I already own GUD, SIS, and XLV.
Read Answer Asked by Steven on August 15, 2016
Q: It is easy to fault advisors when things go south but they are only making decisions based on the information given to them and trusting the source of that information. I got burnt on PHM and many very honest and reputable advisors such as Peter and Jason Donneville were believers also. CXR is EXACTLY the same. The events which unfolded at these two companies should prove to us that above all else the number one metric in evaluating a public traded company must be the Quality And Integrity Of Management. When any critic corners that one, let me know, please
Read Answer Asked by Clarence on August 15, 2016
Q: I had purchased CXR, aware of some inherent risk, but comforted to some degree by an element of reassurance from analysts I respect - including those at 5i - and held on to cxr, to my huge detriment having lost a significant amount of $ on Friday. This is not a question, but rather an expression of gratitude in the midst of CXR's debacle for the much-appreciated alert you provided us; I sold on Friday to redeploy the funds into something I hope will turn out to be more generous. Thanks again. It's time to move on. Regards.
Read Answer Asked by francesco on August 14, 2016
Q: I know that you are removing from the Growth Portfolio today but what should an investor with real money on the line do that's down 70%. This was a 7% position in my portfolio. Should I just eat the loss and move on or hold for 5 years to see if I get my money back (or at least some of it)? I don't need access to the capital for at least another 15 years.
Read Answer Asked by Rob on August 12, 2016
Q: For those of us who bought CXR above 60$/share, selling here won't recover much cash and so I wonder, is there a point selling? What if like WIN or PHM, we sell near the bottom? The guidance is reduced, but some of this was out of their control (currency due to Brexit). If there was a fraud, yes, I agree, but EPS is 3.2% down and revenue revised by 18%. Not good, but they aren't the only ones with troubles (Brystol-Meyers and Gildan). At least they are doing something about it: laying off the CFO and cutting the (small) dividend.
Read Answer Asked by Matt on August 12, 2016
Q: Trying to think of away to avoid two mistake made recently, or at least increase odds of avoiding in future.

PHM purchased and then up over 100% in few weeks/months, then down to minus 30%-50% range few weeks/months later.

CXR purchased and then up over 70% in few weeks, then down to minus 30%-50% range in a few more months.

Gross losses manageable as portfolio weighting was responsible.

PHM I guess fundamentals did not justify the increase and was popular stock at time is best thought I can think of and maybe a soft sell signal?

CXR seemed to go up on short covering, then down dramatically, then slightly back up on takeover rumours. No idea what to have done differently on this one. Feel like the CEO and CFO just dishonest on it.

Ideas? Lessons?
Read Answer Asked by John on August 12, 2016