Q: Dear Peter,
Don Vialoux has spoken a few times, most recently on BNN, about the behaviour of the market in mid-term election years. He suggests an interesting pattern for these years: that the market takes a dive in January and then rallies between February and April. From April until October, the market takes another dive, and then begins a huge rally from October to the end of the year. His data goes back approximately 60 years. I realize that 5I believes in long term value investing, and not technical analysis so much, but I was wanting your opinion nonetheless on Mr. Vialoux's thesis.
With all your experience in the market, have you noted such similar co-relations, and if so, how would you play the position with the higher risk stocks in your portfolio? (My view would be that it would be a good time to add to higher risk companies which are essentially solid otherwise, but are experiencing volatility, and to hold down the tent on the conservative parts of the portfolio.)
Your opinion is much appreciated. Thank you.
Don Vialoux has spoken a few times, most recently on BNN, about the behaviour of the market in mid-term election years. He suggests an interesting pattern for these years: that the market takes a dive in January and then rallies between February and April. From April until October, the market takes another dive, and then begins a huge rally from October to the end of the year. His data goes back approximately 60 years. I realize that 5I believes in long term value investing, and not technical analysis so much, but I was wanting your opinion nonetheless on Mr. Vialoux's thesis.
With all your experience in the market, have you noted such similar co-relations, and if so, how would you play the position with the higher risk stocks in your portfolio? (My view would be that it would be a good time to add to higher risk companies which are essentially solid otherwise, but are experiencing volatility, and to hold down the tent on the conservative parts of the portfolio.)
Your opinion is much appreciated. Thank you.