Investment Q&A

Q: What is a derivative in the financial world? I have heard that derivative values issued worldwide are enormous, in gold well over 100 times the value of all physical gold existing. Are we facing a bank problem with these entities that will repeat the subprime mess again?
Mark Stewart

Q: Hi, I have had this stock for a year,and it seems to be on steady downtrend from around $14. I'am alittle overweight at 7%,would you hang in or reduce to 4-5%.Financials look to be weak right now, your thoughts .
Thanks

Q: I am 44 years old and I have $100k, thinking of an even split $50k for CPD and $50k for Zdv. I have also considered putting the whole $100k into XIC, and writing the occasional calls. Your thoughts on this. What would give me best returns over 10years with the least amount of work or worry?

Q: I have this hedged ETF, VXC, for foreign exposure. If I expect the Canadian dollar to trend up over the next few years which ETF should I buy instead? I'm aiming for 15% of my portfolio to be foreign. Sound like a good idea?

Thanks.

Q: What is the best way calculate EPS Growth. I have noticed it is very erratic from one analyst to another. Should I use historical or future estimates to get the most accurate growth rate?

Q: As part of my portfolio, I own five Canadian smallcal stocks, the five I own now are: ALP; EL; LND; PHM and SPN. I have five, no more and no less, small caps so I can spread out the potential risks if one or two behave badly, ie price drops. I am finding small caps trade differently ( ie. sometimes low volume will move price down or up with no news) since volume has a big impact on my decision.

What should I use as a signal to sell my small caps? Cross below the 200 MVA and sell? as an example.

As always thanks for your response.

Q: Hi, how do you feel about csw and should I consider a or b shares. Greetings, Peter

Q: Hi Team

I may be selling my Costco and am a bit low in Industrials. So with the US money to deploy, what is your take on BIN.US?
Thank you for helping most of us keep our course. "KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON" to all.

Q: 3rd submission:

I forwarded an question yesterday regarding this rant and I guess it was missed so I will resubmit. I have reviewed many of the concerns today on your blog, and wish to obtain your views further.
A bear market condition in which the prices of securities, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As an investor anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimisms only grows. Although figures can vary for many, a downturn of 20% or more in a multiple broad market indexes over a month period is considered a bear market. This has occurred since Jan 1-2016
A bear Market should not be confused with a correction, which is short-term trend that has a duration of less than usually two months. While corrections are often a great place for a value investor to find an entry point, bear markets rarely provide great entry points, as timing the bottom is very difficult to do. Fighting back can be extremely dangerous because it is quite difficult for an investor to make stellar gains during a bear market unless he or she is prepared to short the seller.
My gut feeling that is not a simple correction as well I have been kicking around markets for over 60 years, I cannot remember an incident as severe as what we are presently experiencing. I felt in the first few days of this year it was going to be a usual correction, however within the past week I made the decision (right or wrong) and have liquidated over 70% of my portfolio to capital gains on the ones I was above water on.
Coupled with this our government is arranging a major restructuring for Alberta and Saskatchewan as well as major funding to kick start "infra structure" which is going to take some time in put in place. In addition, Canadians have now been labeled as have the highest personal debt levels of all G7 Nations and if we get an much as 1/2 to 3/4 interest rate increase, we have a bubble in real estate and the consumer cannot service debt. We all know what happened in the US when this occurred. Real Estate will be the next thing on sale.
So My Rant is, as we work through this, and we will, what can 5i offer in suggestions and recommendation for us an investors to get through this delima. If this stays with us, will we have to change our investment style to shorting and putting. :)
I would appreciate your usual and frank suggestion and comments as well as Peters take on the present day situation.

Q: Like most people I have a bit of cash to spare but am nervous about catching the proverbial falling knife in this market. Would you recommend easing into a stock I liked slowly by buying part positions? Or better trying to buy based on a technical signal. Such as waiting for the ten day moving average to turn up or a golden cross to develop etc.? In the past I have found technical signals to be pretty useless and I think academic research shows their accuracy to be at best slightly better than a dartboard.

Q: Peter; What do you think of using this plus XGD in this market environment? I'm thinking of a 5% position in each. Thanks and keep up the hand holding! Rod

Q: Recently and in very short order, the TSX blew through a correction (10% down), then quickly passed through bear market territory (20% down) and is right now on this very bad day about 26 % off its high. At what point do we start calling this a market crash? At what point would you consider there to be blood in the streets? It certainly feels like the blood is being sucked out of my portfolio!

Q: For income generation for the next 3-5 years, is there one or 2 sectors to overweight on or is it still better to diversify across sectors?

Thanks

Q: Most analysts seem to agree to CDN dollar is going further down compared to the U.S. Some think to 50%? What do you think and is there an ETF or investment that you think would be a good way to play that belief?

Q: Hello, do you think the reasoning 15 or 16 times earnings of 90-100$ which implies the spx benchmark adjusting to around 1500 has some merit in the current environment ? Also, with the US economy doing ok and the $can below 0.70, is it a strong stimulus for Canada or are we not exporting to them as much anymore ? Thank you

Q: Regarding certain analysts recent advice to sell everything I would like to refer to a chart in Stock Charts that was published today on the Juggling Dynamite blog. The chart follows the value of the TSX and the $Cdn. The $Cdn leads and the TSX eventually catches down. 2002 TSX bottom 6000 & $Cdn at 62.5. 2009 TSX bottom 7500 & $Cdn at 77.5. If the TSX follows the $Cdn down to the current 68 cents, the TSX level will be 7000.

You keep telling us that nothing has changed. Maybe all assets are reverting to the mean from their elevated levels caused by all the QE. Almost every 10 year stock chart that I look at shows super charged growth starting about 2012.

The chart that I referenced is quite shocking and suggests that this correction could test the 2009 levels. Would you please comment.

Q: Hi 5i team

I'm trying to put together a excel spread sheet of my portfolio for better analysis based on the financials. What would be the best way to calculate the free cash flow? Is ROIC an important measurement of profitability or is ROA sufficient? Thank you.

Q: I am 68 years old, retired, and rely on dividends for income. I went 100% into cash on December 31st, thereby avoiding the 7.2% drop in the TSX over the past two weeks. Once the dust settles, I plan on re-establishing my previous positions in individual high paying, low beta, small to mid-cap Canadian dividend paying stocks, diversified across most sectors. I prefer Canada over the U.S. for the dividend tax credit, and I prefer small to mid-cap stocks for their monthly payouts. Given the current macro and micro economic conditions influencing the Markets, in your view, is this a reasonable strategy going forward? As always, thank you for your valued response!

Q: Headlines scream out "Sell Everything" ... but surely there needs to be someone on the other end to "Buy Everything".

I've been slowly dipping in and buying and appreciate the wisdom in your answers to all members questions.

Do you have a gut feel for how long the market sell off will continue? I like open ended questions like these to see where you go with them.

Thanks
Mike

Q: Would you advise buying now in anticipation of a bounce back, and if so, what sector? Tech? Health? Or should we buy defensive stocks or bond funds in anticipation of continued heavy turbulence?
If you had some money ready at hand, what would you do with it?