Investment Q&A

Q: This isn't a question, just another interesting tidbit regarding the VRX/Citron drama. Feel free to post if you like...

From Reuters: "Short interest in U.S.-traded Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc shares stood at its highest in nearly a year in the first half of October, exchange data showed on Monday, indicating bearish investors were stacking up against the stock even before a negative report torpedoed the shares last week.

Short interest in Valeant shot up to 10.54 million shares, or about 3.1 percent of the stock available for trading, in the period to Oct. 14, according to FactSet Research Systems data cited by the Wall Street Journal.

That was the highest since the last half of October 2014 and an increase of 49.3 percent from the 7.06 million shares, or 2 percent of the public float, at the end of September.

Overall short interest on NYSE stocks declined 2.2 percent during the same period, exchange data showed."

Q: What are your thoughts on the Valeant conference call? It seems like they refuted Citron's claims but the stock has been pretty neutral today. Any idea why that is/do you think their response was satisfactory?
Thanks!

Q: JD on BNN today says ROE on VRX is 40+%. How does one arrive at that number?
What would CXR's ROE be according to your sources?

Q: sorry for another vrx question. when 5i removed vrx from the model portfolio what were the main reasons for removing vrx then?

Q: VRX isn't enjoying CRX's bounce. Is it facing stiffer headwinds because of direct accusations of fraud versus CRX's guilt by association, or do you think there's something else at work here e.g. it's business model needs to change, reducing profits going forward.
Bought CRX on the way down, is that trying to catch a falling knife or dollar cost averaging!! Average price $42, so fairly happy here, at least for the moment. Just wondering if there's an opportunity with VRX at this level or avoid altogether. My sector weight with CXR, GUD, PHM, PLI is 13%.
TGIF and thanks Peter.

Q: I will use Valeant as my example. When someone attacks your stock
And it is in serious decline why not call a news conference immediately. Refute the claims and announce a huge share buyback and have the short sellers squeezed.

Why do you not favour short sellers?

Q: I read the link to the Citron report provided here the other day and saw Mr Left on BNN yesterday. Bot the report and the interview revealed, im my opinion, were over-the-top to the point of being cartoonish. Citron's motives are obviously highly questionable. However, I can't help but think that Valeant doesn't own some responsibility for this. Why would Valeant not want to get out in front of this matter sooner? Why has Left done all the talking this week, while we have had so little info come from VRX?
The problem may very well be that Citron is correct in their accusation, and that VRX really wasn't sure what to say about it. It may be a small part of their overall sales, and the Enron comparison may be ridiculous, but it is possible that VRX got caught doing something wrong and can't refute it. That gave Citron a golden opportunity. Maybe we will learn more Monday. Just my 2 cents. Thx.

Q: Would there not be an opportunity cost by buying Knight now instead of a couple of years from now, since you keep saying that it is a five year investment, thanks?

Q: I was reading the latest TD analyst report (dated Oct. 22, 2015) regarding CXR and was a bit frustrated that they significantly lowered the price target not because of the earnings expectations for the company but on overall sector valuations/conditions (I would say this was primarily driven by Valeant). It seems the report was reacting to recent market events (which can quickly turn around) more than anything else, and doesn't seem to take into consideration that there will be a guidance announcement this coming Monday Oct. 26. Thoughts?

On a side note, is there a way to obtain all analyst reports for a security without paying an exorbitant amount? I have access to TD reports because I trade through TD Direct Investing but not much else.

Q: i do not own valeant or concordia-- i do own knight, crh and some others,but the article by ryan modesto on valeant leaves out the key point of this whole debacle--- this negative post by the short seller brought down the whole healthcare space across all spectrums and this to me is what the jason donvilles are really raving about-- it is totally unfair and wrong. i side with donville 100 per cent, this type of sensationalism and negativity must be eliminated. even if the short sellers post is true, it represents about 10 per cent of vrx revenue, which begs the quesstion should the whole healthcare space have been hammered the way it was?i think not,scary stuff.post if you want. dave

Q: Hello team,

First thing on Monday 26 Oct, I am moving to buy 500 shares of VRX. This will account for roughly 10% of my portfolio. I am even tempted to buy 1000 shares depending on your honest answer to the following question:

Is this a one time opportunity to invest in a good company suffering from unfair publicity or is this a moment of greed which has blinded many to see a broken story?

I have seen the interview with Jason on BNN and I am sorry for not buying VRX when it reached 116$....if Jason is right this company is worth north of $400/share. If Jason is honest and I know you respect him a lot, then why should I (or everybody else) hesitate and lose this golden opportunity? Or is he telling us all of this because he is massively invested in VRX and he is looking out for himself first.

I know you don't like target prices but is it even a possibility for this stock to see the light of $250/share ever again.

I know you will refuse my weighting in the company but I am more interested in your genuine and personal trust in the company's management and what the company is doing (borrowing to grow ROE at all costs) as well as your desire to invest in this company after all is said and done...., Today?

Love to hear back from you. I know your long-term investment logic and wisdom are the only thing that could stop me from making a deadly mistake. So thank you in advance.

Q: Dennis Mitchell gave a more grounded interview on BNN regarding the Valeant - Citron debacle, in my view. In short (oops!) he suggests it's the investor's responsibility to fully understand the business they have bought into regardless of what any research piece, pro or con, says. Further, Buffett would suggest a 'margin of safety' shield any purchase you are contemplating and that volatility can be your friend if you understand the underlying business. Read lots (not just 5i) and take the time to ponder before your purchase but in the end you are responsible for your investments, not the media, not the research firm, not any politicians.
Post at your discretion.
Tim

Q: I thought your readers may be interested to see Jason Donville's response to the short sellers of Valeant:

http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=733570

Some harsh words against the unregulated short market.

Q: GUD is apparently well positioned. They have money and they have the skill set. Waiting for it to move is seemingly like waiting for Godot. When do you think they might pull the trigger with the money they have and make and investment? See you at the show.

Q: Could you explain, in general terms, how companies like CXR (and I suppose VRX) actually thrive? CXR buys an existing company, but how do they become so successful? Do they somehow unlock synergies to cut costs or increase sales, or is it just price increases? Or is it that they somehow are able to purchase these companies at a great price, and if so, why would the existing owner sell at such a low price? CRX has levered itself to buy their most recent company, but why is this such a great deal? Thanks again for your insight!

Q: Hi guys. I own XLV.us, IWO.us, CXR, SIS, SIA, and PLI all varied weights and losses or slight gains in different accounts for a total weight dropping to 7% and dropping more. My question is do you see any of these as a Sell for the time being (perhaps a year or so)..to be bought back when the sector starts to look better. and freeing up cash for better places to hide. Perhaps GUD??? Thanks for your tireless support! We cant do it without you.

Q: Hi guys, again.

Feel free to take your time on this one and dont post publicly if you feel it adds zero value to the discussion.

I was reviewing Citron's twitter account and it looks like they only took notice of Valeant after Hilary Clinton's tweet, promising drug pricing reform. Citron Research's first tweet on Valeant, that I can find, was on September 28.

Do you think its possible, Citron, noticing Valeant's reaction to Hilary Clinton's tweet, decided to only then initiate their short attack on VRX by simply packaging the questions that have always surrounded Valeant in a nice neat report?

Imagining a world where Hilary Clinton never sent that tweet, would Citron have thought of to initiate their short on VRX? Would they have the courage of their conviction to place a $50 price target on VRX?

If you think Citron's report on Valeant took months to research and create, then obviously, the above timeline doesn't work out as Hilary first commented on drug pricing reform in late September.

So which do you think it is? (1) Citron was working on their report previously and independently of Hilary's comments or (2) Citron noticed the weakness in Valeant's share price, after Hilary's tweet, and smelling blood in the water, were opportunistic in deciding to create their short report.

Thanks again for your insight.

John

Q: The Valeant short-seller (Andrew Left) was on BNN today:

http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=732841

I have to say (in my opinion) that the above video does not paint him in a good light. It seems this whole story is more about sensational headlines than material evidence.

Q: Peter and Co.
I have 3% in Canadian healthcare stocks, CRH and PHM. Would you buy CXR today? Is it catching a falling knife or has it started it's rebound (up 18% yesterday.)
To me it looks like it has a ton of upside, but I don't think I could handle another PHM haha! cheers

Q: What is your view on ZUH? Is it and the sector breaking down or just a setback? Would you add to the position.