Q: Peter et al.:
I noticed in your recent blog that you have IAE listed as one of the oil stocks that will be in a pinch if the oil price stays low or goes lower. Does this take into account their hedges out to mid 2016 and their hedges out to mid 2017? Assuming that Stella starts producing in mid 2016 there should be a large increase in cash flow with the 16K of extra production, is this taken into account. I think past mid 2016 there will be some risk but their break even price is stated at $10/B until Stella produces. They have been rescued in my opinion by their hedging regime and are seen as a show me stock. In this down energy market I think they have reduced their risk to the low oil price as reseasonably possible. Many companies have not done this but IAE's stock price does not reflect this. Also they are planning in this quarter to start to reduce their debt and they do no even have production from Stella yet - this surprised me actually. Yes it will move as the oil market moves but I believe it has a low probability of insolvency even with 800M of debt. I believe there are more companies that have a greater chance like my lottery ticket - INA (last time upgraded to 2 lotto tickets from 1 -LOL). I just hope I am right.
Waiting for an energy turnaround
Thanks,
Brendan
I noticed in your recent blog that you have IAE listed as one of the oil stocks that will be in a pinch if the oil price stays low or goes lower. Does this take into account their hedges out to mid 2016 and their hedges out to mid 2017? Assuming that Stella starts producing in mid 2016 there should be a large increase in cash flow with the 16K of extra production, is this taken into account. I think past mid 2016 there will be some risk but their break even price is stated at $10/B until Stella produces. They have been rescued in my opinion by their hedging regime and are seen as a show me stock. In this down energy market I think they have reduced their risk to the low oil price as reseasonably possible. Many companies have not done this but IAE's stock price does not reflect this. Also they are planning in this quarter to start to reduce their debt and they do no even have production from Stella yet - this surprised me actually. Yes it will move as the oil market moves but I believe it has a low probability of insolvency even with 800M of debt. I believe there are more companies that have a greater chance like my lottery ticket - INA (last time upgraded to 2 lotto tickets from 1 -LOL). I just hope I am right.
Waiting for an energy turnaround
Thanks,
Brendan