Q: Can you please give your outlook for oil short term (6months) and longer term (3-5 years). I have hard time to wrap my head around $40 oil assuming supply destruction and the world still growing... Would you know the average or lower cost to produce with current fracking methods ? As many i am down on my oil stocks but don t really feel the need to sell. Thank you for your general comments
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Investment Q&A
Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.
Q: Peter et al.:
I noticed in your recent blog that you have IAE listed as one of the oil stocks that will be in a pinch if the oil price stays low or goes lower. Does this take into account their hedges out to mid 2016 and their hedges out to mid 2017? Assuming that Stella starts producing in mid 2016 there should be a large increase in cash flow with the 16K of extra production, is this taken into account. I think past mid 2016 there will be some risk but their break even price is stated at $10/B until Stella produces. They have been rescued in my opinion by their hedging regime and are seen as a show me stock. In this down energy market I think they have reduced their risk to the low oil price as reseasonably possible. Many companies have not done this but IAE's stock price does not reflect this. Also they are planning in this quarter to start to reduce their debt and they do no even have production from Stella yet - this surprised me actually. Yes it will move as the oil market moves but I believe it has a low probability of insolvency even with 800M of debt. I believe there are more companies that have a greater chance like my lottery ticket - INA (last time upgraded to 2 lotto tickets from 1 -LOL). I just hope I am right.
Waiting for an energy turnaround
Thanks,
Brendan
I noticed in your recent blog that you have IAE listed as one of the oil stocks that will be in a pinch if the oil price stays low or goes lower. Does this take into account their hedges out to mid 2016 and their hedges out to mid 2017? Assuming that Stella starts producing in mid 2016 there should be a large increase in cash flow with the 16K of extra production, is this taken into account. I think past mid 2016 there will be some risk but their break even price is stated at $10/B until Stella produces. They have been rescued in my opinion by their hedging regime and are seen as a show me stock. In this down energy market I think they have reduced their risk to the low oil price as reseasonably possible. Many companies have not done this but IAE's stock price does not reflect this. Also they are planning in this quarter to start to reduce their debt and they do no even have production from Stella yet - this surprised me actually. Yes it will move as the oil market moves but I believe it has a low probability of insolvency even with 800M of debt. I believe there are more companies that have a greater chance like my lottery ticket - INA (last time upgraded to 2 lotto tickets from 1 -LOL). I just hope I am right.
Waiting for an energy turnaround
Thanks,
Brendan
Q: Hi, I have no US exposure or Energy stocks so was looking to buy 1/2 of ETP.US for dividends but with the drop in price I am now looking at growth for the same stock.
Any comments would be helpful.
Any comments would be helpful.
Q: Hi.. Any update would be appreciated. Thanks inadvance. Cliff
Q: surge is now trading at a similar value to what it sold the asset to torc for.( 500 million) I know 5 i sold this stock but am I missing something else here or should I sell and move on.
Q: I have held ARX,CNQ and VET for over 10 years. CNQ and VET have been good performers compared to ARX. For a "quality upgrade" would you sell ARX and use the proceeds to buy more VET and CNQ? Thank You Ron
Q: I am losing big time with my COS shares which were purchased at $21 and are now trading around $6.00. Since COS has only one asset and a lot of debt are they in a financial position where they may have to go bankrupt or can it be an interesting buy for another oil producer? I am wondering if I should sell my shares or hang on to them. I would appreciate having your comments. Thank you.
Q: What are your thoughts on SKK at current prices? I'm doing some bottom feeding and understand the risks. I just bought WCP, TOG & ESN and am now considering SKK & PNE. As always, I value your opinion/comments.
Cheers! Austin
Cheers! Austin
Q: Our weight in VET has now dropped to 1.9% so I think I should either sell it or buy another $15,000 to increase the weighting back up to 3%. The only other energy stocks we own are CMG and PEY with a 2.5% weighting each. We have 27 separate stocks & ETF's and I believe you think 20 is the right number so selling VET may make some sense. Do you still feel VET's dividend is secure? Maybe I should just do nothing - any suggestions?
Q: Mourning ... yesterday a question was posted in regards to Paul Colbourne webcast at the Denver O+G conference. Can you decipher his comments and is the dividend safe at $40 oil? Also a prediction of $70 oil by Oct/Nov was made by another fella ...can you also see this happening?Thankyou.
Q: I haven't owned energy for a while and am waiting to buy 2-4 of these: HSE,WCP,PKI,IPL,ARX,GH. Please rank them in priority. Assume I'll buy them today.
Would you replace any of the energy stocks with SU or CNQ? Thanks
Would you replace any of the energy stocks with SU or CNQ? Thanks
Q: You suggest a 5% weighting in energy at this time. If I were to reduce my energy holdings to 5 %, it would involve taking a significant loss (and buying high, selling low). I'm ok with just holding on unless you think that's a bad idea. What are your thoughts on this? Many thanks for your steadying hand.
Q: With CPG's recent free fall far exceeding the recent decline in oil, do you expect the company's entire senior management to be booted out? Thanks as usual.
Q: Good morning - I own the above stocks in the energy sector and they make up a total of 9% of my portfolio. I am obviously down considerably. I own all of them for income purposes, but of course would like to see growth over the long term as well. With a long term outlook (3-5 years), does it makes sense to just sit on these stocks and collect the dividend? Or, do you suggest selling one ore more at a loss (CPG at a 55% loss) and redeploying the funds in something other than energy once things settle down.
Q: comment on these 2 please they use to be the old deethree,worth holding? i was thinking of selling bxo and put it all into gxo mostly for the dividend tkx pat
Q: Can I get your current outlook on Delphi. Will they survive an extended period of low prices, or is there debt levels too high? It seems pretty cheap here.
Q: Hello 5i, do you think that TOG's 0.045 dividend is sustainable in current oil sector conditions. I read that current cash flow does not cover the dividend. Thanks.
Q: What are your thoughts on Kel. I have this week taken a position of about 3% and am prepared to hold for 2/3 years. This is my only exposure to the oil/gas industry.
Q: Hi
I've started to do some early tax loss selling hoping I can buy them back cheaper while banking a "capital loss" in the meantime.
Which ones would you buy back in the fall if in fact we do get to capitulation mode?
CNQ , CVE , CPG , FRU , SU , ERF , HSE , CEU , WCP , PEY , ARX
Thank you..
I've started to do some early tax loss selling hoping I can buy them back cheaper while banking a "capital loss" in the meantime.
Which ones would you buy back in the fall if in fact we do get to capitulation mode?
CNQ , CVE , CPG , FRU , SU , ERF , HSE , CEU , WCP , PEY , ARX
Thank you..
Q: there is a very informative presentation by paul colbourne at the denver oil and gas conference available by webcast. dividend is more than safe at 40 dollar oil and share buyback starts tomorrow. enercom 360 oilandgas webcast if anyone who owns sgy is interested in watching.