Q: Hey guys, novice question here, : looks like cos is trading above the take over price that Su has offerd (8.77 being the takeover price) - did I get something wrong? Does this have to do with the fact its a share deal, and as su shares climb, so do the value of COS? Thanks for clarifying.
You can view 3 more answers this month. Sign up for a free trial for unlimited access.
Investment Q&A
Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.
Q: Hi Peter
Regarding Suncor's hostile bid for COS, would you advise accepting or would you hold on to COS. I own both companies. I'm not sure what to do here.
Thanks.
Cam
Regarding Suncor's hostile bid for COS, would you advise accepting or would you hold on to COS. I own both companies. I'm not sure what to do here.
Thanks.
Cam
Q: I’m presently thinking I just may hold on to my COS although I think SU is far better company to hold but I paid too much for my COS to sell it down here when I think when oil recovers so will COS with less shares being traded on a daily basis.
COS has a good Asset or SU wouldn’t want to increase their portion of the Oil Sands.
I think after the Offer closes if in fact SU gets enough COS shares submitted for them to accept them, there will be less shs of COS in the marketplace. It will likely drop off to about say $4.00 while oil is low and if it does, I’ll average down.
When Oil recovers so will COS. It won’t get anywhere close to what I paid but if I can average down when I think COS gets low enough to buy to average down I won’t lose as much as tendering my shs to SU.
COS can always do a New Issue to bring their shs to a half decent level besides giving them cash to benefit their operating expenses. SU isn't going to be selling so a New Issue may be successfully done.
This may just be the best thing that could happen favouring the COS shareholders.
Now give me your opposing argument to this flakey idea. Tomorrow I just may change my mind but at the moment I think I favour this idea.
Thx Fellows - don't be afraid to be brutally critical - in fact I'd appreciate it.
COS has a good Asset or SU wouldn’t want to increase their portion of the Oil Sands.
I think after the Offer closes if in fact SU gets enough COS shares submitted for them to accept them, there will be less shs of COS in the marketplace. It will likely drop off to about say $4.00 while oil is low and if it does, I’ll average down.
When Oil recovers so will COS. It won’t get anywhere close to what I paid but if I can average down when I think COS gets low enough to buy to average down I won’t lose as much as tendering my shs to SU.
COS can always do a New Issue to bring their shs to a half decent level besides giving them cash to benefit their operating expenses. SU isn't going to be selling so a New Issue may be successfully done.
This may just be the best thing that could happen favouring the COS shareholders.
Now give me your opposing argument to this flakey idea. Tomorrow I just may change my mind but at the moment I think I favour this idea.
Thx Fellows - don't be afraid to be brutally critical - in fact I'd appreciate it.
Q: Hi Peter & Team, I know you would tender COS shares to Suncor. But I am wondering what will happen if I do not tender my COS shares? Thanks, Gervais
Q: With Suncor attempting to entice exhausted shareholders with a 0.25 SU share exchange offer, COS loyalists are fortunate to have an influential shareholder in Seymour Schulich.
Schulich was quoted in saying:
“I ain’t selling at that price,” he said of Monday’s bid, adding that he believes Canadian Oil Sands is worth $20 per share. “If they succeed, I’ll go to court to get a valuation.”
My question is what options do COS shareholders have if SU were to be successful in this takeover chicanery? Could someone like Schulich order an independent valuation and let a judge decide what is fair for shareholders?
Here is link to article:
http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/suncor-energy-incs-4-3b-hostile-bid-for-canadian-oil-sands-ridiculous-seymour-schulich
Schulich was quoted in saying:
“I ain’t selling at that price,” he said of Monday’s bid, adding that he believes Canadian Oil Sands is worth $20 per share. “If they succeed, I’ll go to court to get a valuation.”
My question is what options do COS shareholders have if SU were to be successful in this takeover chicanery? Could someone like Schulich order an independent valuation and let a judge decide what is fair for shareholders?
Here is link to article:
http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/suncor-energy-incs-4-3b-hostile-bid-for-canadian-oil-sands-ridiculous-seymour-schulich
Q: Hi Peter and Team,
I've written to you before about COS. I'm a long term shareholder of this company. I own 100K shares. Will I get a chance to vote on this deal offered by Su - and what's your take? Personally, I think it's a good fit and I think Su will be able to finally! get the syncrude project moving in a better direction (i believe that operation suffers from too many cooks in the kitchen syndrome). many thanks!
I've written to you before about COS. I'm a long term shareholder of this company. I own 100K shares. Will I get a chance to vote on this deal offered by Su - and what's your take? Personally, I think it's a good fit and I think Su will be able to finally! get the syncrude project moving in a better direction (i believe that operation suffers from too many cooks in the kitchen syndrome). many thanks!
Q: I am losing big time with my COS shares which were purchased at $21 and are now trading around $6.00. Since COS has only one asset and a lot of debt are they in a financial position where they may have to go bankrupt or can it be an interesting buy for another oil producer? I am wondering if I should sell my shares or hang on to them. I would appreciate having your comments. Thank you.
Q: Can I get your get your opinion on COS in terms of their debt and possible take out. Thanks.
Q: Potential for further upside in near term? Thanks.
Q: Is this a good entry point for Canadian Oil Sands stock? Tx
Q: http://email.seekingalpha.com/track?type=click&mailingid=2798555&messageid=2800&databaseid=&serial=2800O2798555O1420497134.b35c9666ac01032ec25c6b2b2ec0e005&emailid=1079842&userid=1079842&extra=&&&3000&&&http://seekingalpha.com/article/2798555-canadian-oil-sands-5-price-target?source=email_rt_article_readmore&uide=1079842&uprof=46
Mr. Hodson, does this January 5, 2015 article by Mark Liew make sense ? COS at 5$ and eventually no dividend at all. In a complete chaos situation, everything is possible, but anyone can imagine anything. What is a common sense likely outcome ? Otherwise, I believe COS' reserves are there for 40 years or more, not 20 years. And what's the value of long time predictions when the overall context may change in a year or two ?
Mr. Hodson, does this January 5, 2015 article by Mark Liew make sense ? COS at 5$ and eventually no dividend at all. In a complete chaos situation, everything is possible, but anyone can imagine anything. What is a common sense likely outcome ? Otherwise, I believe COS' reserves are there for 40 years or more, not 20 years. And what's the value of long time predictions when the overall context may change in a year or two ?
Q: Hi peter I recently read a "research report" citing the wrong dividend yield for COS. At the current price of $10 and change and the annual yield at 80 cents annually the yield is around 7.5% give or take a basis point or two. I mention this because at these levels a yield in this range is sustainable even at oil $52/barrel. Do you agree? Do you see another quick leg down for oil prices only to spring back up to the magical prices area just below where most shale producers are still losing money (65). Thanks.
Q: Hi 5i team,
I'm thinking of dollar cost averaging either my Canadian Oil Sands holdings (purchased in 2008 for an astonishing $39/share) or Goldcorp (bought in early 2012 for cringeworthy $47/share). My time horizon is 3-5 years. I have similar weighting in my portfolio for both oil/gas vs mining sectors. Both these battered stocks pay dividends. Which of these 2 would you suggest I choose now to dollar cost average? I'm working under the assumption neither company looks like they will become insolvent and declare bankruptcy.
thanks
I'm thinking of dollar cost averaging either my Canadian Oil Sands holdings (purchased in 2008 for an astonishing $39/share) or Goldcorp (bought in early 2012 for cringeworthy $47/share). My time horizon is 3-5 years. I have similar weighting in my portfolio for both oil/gas vs mining sectors. Both these battered stocks pay dividends. Which of these 2 would you suggest I choose now to dollar cost average? I'm working under the assumption neither company looks like they will become insolvent and declare bankruptcy.
thanks
Q: 7:55 PM 12/16/2014
Hello Peter
Despite your somewhat lukewarm advice [you were quite right to be cautious] about Canadian Oil Sands [COS] I purchased 1% position some time ago. I am now down 62%. After the dividend cut I would think it is now somewhat safe however I would appreciate your advice on whether to just hold for many years or whether I should switch to a pipeline or a utility that might have more growth potential and more liklihood of dividend growth too.
I would like to get a dividend in the 4 to 5% range as I imagine that would be safer and maybe allow more growth.
I was wondering about switching to one of : PKI, GEI, ALA, IPL, PPL, AQN, INE, EMA. Can you tell me which 2 or 3 are most likely to have reasonable growth and a solid growing dividend that would be better than COS, and could you rank them in order of preference.
We now have a 4% position inclusive in these three : BNE, SGY, BTE. Is COS "Dead Money" for the next few years or will it spring to life if the oil price rises? Would you advise a switch or would you just stick with COS?
Thank You... Paul K.
Hello Peter
Despite your somewhat lukewarm advice [you were quite right to be cautious] about Canadian Oil Sands [COS] I purchased 1% position some time ago. I am now down 62%. After the dividend cut I would think it is now somewhat safe however I would appreciate your advice on whether to just hold for many years or whether I should switch to a pipeline or a utility that might have more growth potential and more liklihood of dividend growth too.
I would like to get a dividend in the 4 to 5% range as I imagine that would be safer and maybe allow more growth.
I was wondering about switching to one of : PKI, GEI, ALA, IPL, PPL, AQN, INE, EMA. Can you tell me which 2 or 3 are most likely to have reasonable growth and a solid growing dividend that would be better than COS, and could you rank them in order of preference.
We now have a 4% position inclusive in these three : BNE, SGY, BTE. Is COS "Dead Money" for the next few years or will it spring to life if the oil price rises? Would you advise a switch or would you just stick with COS?
Thank You... Paul K.
Q: Hi 5i team,
A few weeks ago I dumped a whole bunch of COS shares at the open of market. I've never really understood "who or "what" is buying these shares that I'm selling. In Particular, it seems no one in his or her right mind would be an active buyer of oil stocks, yet someone is on the other end of my trade accepting the garbage that I am throwing out. Who is it? Is it ETF's that are required to purchased stocks to keep their balance of holdings equal? Or something like this? Thanks!
A few weeks ago I dumped a whole bunch of COS shares at the open of market. I've never really understood "who or "what" is buying these shares that I'm selling. In Particular, it seems no one in his or her right mind would be an active buyer of oil stocks, yet someone is on the other end of my trade accepting the garbage that I am throwing out. Who is it? Is it ETF's that are required to purchased stocks to keep their balance of holdings equal? Or something like this? Thanks!
Q: Hi Peter and Team, this is about the news that COS would be cutting its quarterly dividend by nearly 43 per cent. I have made a quick calculation, and based on the closing price of today of $10.98, the new yield would be of about 7%. Does my calculation make sense? If yes, is it okay to buy COS shares at this price? Thanks, Gervais
Q: hi folks,with cos/t cutting dividend 42% and production where CFPS15E decreased app $2.52 to $1.65,is this stock an avoid or is all bad news factored in and worth starting a position around $11sh,thanks as always,jb
Q: http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.cos/canadian-oil-sands-limited?postid=23197193
Mr. Hodson, at the risk of annoying you, I am providing this analysis with respect to Canadian Oil Sands (COS), which goes along with yours, and maybe further (as it is backed by actual buying of the stock). Was today's price a 35-65% discount and are reserves to last 90 years ? Do you foresee oil and COS substantially higher within the next year ?
Again, this is a private question, but feel free to let other members view your response if you think this is useful ?
Mr. Hodson, at the risk of annoying you, I am providing this analysis with respect to Canadian Oil Sands (COS), which goes along with yours, and maybe further (as it is backed by actual buying of the stock). Was today's price a 35-65% discount and are reserves to last 90 years ? Do you foresee oil and COS substantially higher within the next year ?
Again, this is a private question, but feel free to let other members view your response if you think this is useful ?
Q: http://email.seekingalpha.com/track?type=click&mailingid=2725315&messageid=2800&databaseid=&serial=2800O2725315O1417550693.ee8baa118f6bde76b6a9a57f2d931657&emailid=1079842&userid=1079842&extra=&&&3000&&&http://seekingalpha.com/article/2725315-canadian-oil-sands-whats-it-worth?source=email_rt_article_readmore&uprof=46
Mr.Hodson, this is a follow-up to my recent questions on Canadian Oil Sands Ltd (COS). The market is currently doing a carnage on COS, but this paper puts things in a different perspective. See also comments by Uncle Pie, who owned COS for a long time. To what extent do you agree with the author and Uncle Pie ? Should you think this would be useful to other members, feel free to act accordingly and let them see your response. It just does not make sense to discard a company that had better days, and still might continue to do so in the future, while having a superior product (SCO or synthetic oil). Of course, the market is king, and should it decide to punish COS, just like other oil producers (with regular Canada crude), it might be better to acknowledge the market is always right. What's the correct view in such a case ?
Mr.Hodson, this is a follow-up to my recent questions on Canadian Oil Sands Ltd (COS). The market is currently doing a carnage on COS, but this paper puts things in a different perspective. See also comments by Uncle Pie, who owned COS for a long time. To what extent do you agree with the author and Uncle Pie ? Should you think this would be useful to other members, feel free to act accordingly and let them see your response. It just does not make sense to discard a company that had better days, and still might continue to do so in the future, while having a superior product (SCO or synthetic oil). Of course, the market is king, and should it decide to punish COS, just like other oil producers (with regular Canada crude), it might be better to acknowledge the market is always right. What's the correct view in such a case ?
Q: Hi, Peter
I want to replace COS to CNQ and PWF to TD or CIX ,could I
please have your thoughts about these. Thanks
Selina
I want to replace COS to CNQ and PWF to TD or CIX ,could I
please have your thoughts about these. Thanks
Selina