Investment Q&A

Q: I was stopped out of AVO today; I set my stop loss at 94% of my purchase price. Please comment on stop losses and how to properly set them. How much of a loss is reasonable before it is time to get out before it is too late? Is the greater volatility part of the package for a stock that has run up quickly? Thank you.

Q: Hello Peter
I have a policy that no individual security should exceed 5% of the value of my total portfolio. Normally when a stock reaches 5.5% I trim it back to 5% and invest the proceeds in the fixed income portion of my portfolio to maintain a 30% fixed income, 70% equity allocation. Over the past couple of years I have needed to trim shares of TD, RY, BNS, BCE, T, TRP and CU as they have all exceeded the 5% threshold. These stocks are held in an open account, so capital gain taxes must be paid on the dispositions. I know that the value of my portfolio would currently be higher if I did not follow this policy. Is this policy flawed? Should I just let the winners run?
Thanks David

Q: Hello 5i,
I’m looking to raise some cash and diversify my holding, as it stands right now, which two companies in the list below would you sell.
Enterprise Group (PEG), PPL Corp ( PPL), Duke Energy Corp (DUK), Emera Inc (EMA), Fortis Inc (FTS), Southern Co (SO), Hawaiian Electric Industries Inc (HE), Consolidated Edison Inc (ED), TransAlta Corp (TA), FirstEnergy Corp (FE)
Currently I’m a little overweight with Utilities and am looking for good companies in other sectors with the exception of telecom with a dividend around 5%, any ideas?
Thanks for your help!!

Q: Hi Team, I have heard more than one commentary about a coming market correction. I own a wide spectrum of sectors, about 65% large cap, and 25% in mid-cap. and 10% small cap I have gains in all sectors (not all stocks) and I'm thinking about taking some gains to move into some cash for the next couple of months. What are your thoughts about the following sectors in small, mid and large cap , and how they might be affected if the market corrects. (all Canadian stocks)
Oil and gas
Pipelines
Financial
Industrial (eg. BGI.UN, WEF)
REITS
Tech
Consumer (DH)
Thanks so much.

Q: Hello Peter and Co,
A few advisors are suggesting that it is timely to raise some cash because a serious pull back is expected (my RRIF portfolio has only 3% cash); in my opinion, this suggestion flies in the face of the principle of investing for the long term (time in the market vs timing the market)
Your opinion is most valuable; in the meantime, I'm trying to identify my "lowest conviction" holdings.
Thanks,
Tony S.

Q: Hi Peter and Team,

In previous answers to questions you've said that 1) earnings, 2) interest rates, and 3) flows of capital (e.g., from bonds to stocks) tend to be the main drivers of market activity.

What is your take please on these drivers so far this year in Canada? Are any trends emerging?

Many thanks.

Michael

Q: Do you anticipate a substantial pullback in the market in the next while?
How would you recommend to prepare for the possibility and
Would things would you recommend to do if it should come more suddenly than rxpected?

Thanks

Q: it is quite often suggested that so called allternatives can be benefical to diversify. could you advise? and also what would your opinion as to the weight and could you please comment on xal for this purpose? thank you kindly Larry

Q: I was wondering what you thought of Prem Watsa's statement about a 'monstrous' real estate bubble set to burst in China. If it does, would there be a major impact on CDN markets? And if it would, which sectors would be hit worst or least?

Q: For a young new investor just starting a RRSP, in which product would you accumulate initial savings? Would something like XWD be an appropriate starting point, and how much would you accumulate before diversifying to a typical portfolio approach.

Q: Hi 5i,
Given the recent announcement regarding Peladeau (sp.?) joining the PQ and the impending election, one might reasonably anticipate increased uncertainty re: the "Sovereignty Issue". In the event that this issue percolates to the forefront of Canada/Quebec politics over the next few years what, if any, stocks/sectors in the TSX would you see being the most impacted? The least (i.e. a defensive play on the issue)? Also, the dollar? I believe Peladeau's entry into the equation to be a potential game-changer for the sovereigntists and could cause some market turmoil. Just speculation; would love your insights on this issue from an investment perspective. Issue or non-issue?
Thanks,
Cheers,
Mike

Q: The objective of this question is to find out if I can further refine my stock selection process and enhance my win/loss record.

Specifically: given that several stocks have similar p/e ratios and similar financial strength, would looking at the Sharpe Ratio and Momentum (as in average monthly return numbers) help with the final decision?

For example, would you be more likely to select a stock with a Sharpe Ratio of 2.1 and a growth rate of 7.8% over a stock with a SR of 1.4 and a GR of 4%? If so I would assume that you consider these to be reliable (but knowing that nothing is perfect) indicators of likely future stock prices.

On the other hand, if I am wandering off into the "wilderness" with this approach, would you please let me know; and then also why these metrics would not be suitable for this purpose.

Thanks again for all your insightful observations and suggestions.

Q: Hi - In the event that the PQ wins a majority in the Quebec election and starts another referendum process, what sectors / companies in Canada (especially amongst the companies you follow) do you think would benefit the most or be hurt the worst?

Q: Hi Peter + Group do you have any thoughts on Ballard Power (BLD) + Plug in (PLUG) both are jumping over the last few mths. Do you like any others in the space and what is your Outlook / Risk for this sector going fwd...Thanks

Q: Hi,
I bought a couple of stocks (BB and MU)a few days ago that were highly recommended on Seeking Alpha. They do not seem to be doing too much. What is your opinion?
Momentum Stocks like TKM, HYG and ARWR-US just keep going up forever. Would this be a better way to invest?
Watching the financial news which I do regularly due to the fact I am retired, everyone is talking (waiting) for a 5% pull back - it has been a long wait - will it be coming by July, 2014?

Q: My husband and I have self directed RRSP's with 10 years to go until the RRSP's become self directed RRIF's. The annual minimum RRIF withdrawal starts at 5% at age 70, and increases each year. At age 85 the withdrawal rate is 10.33%. My question is - would the investments in the RRSP's be best as an income portfolio to preserve capital but also allow for the required cash withdrawals? Or do you think a portfolio combination of growth and income is more advantageous given the 10 year time frame? Thanks!

Q: What Canadian stocks are most vulnerable in the event of a P.Q. majority government in Quebec? Thanks. Michael

Q: Hi Peter,

Hoping you and team can provide some advice on when to sell a stock. I consistently struggle with when to hold and when to sell so have always erred on the side of holding. This has generally worked out for me with the exception of cyclical stocks. I have held Magna for a very long time and it is creeping over 8% of my portfolio and wondering if this is the time to trim a bit. However, the momentum in the stock is quite strong and so I continue to dither and sit on the sidelines. Your advice would be helpful.

Q: I've been reading quite a few articles recently about the high level of margin debt in the US. What is your opinion on the correlation between margin debt levels and major stock market corrections. Apparently margin debt levels are very close to where they were just before both the 2000 and 2007 corrections.
Thanks for the great service.

Q: Hi Peter and 5i: I have been reading Ben Graham's “The Intelligent Investor,” on your recommendation among others. Thank you for that. It is a wonderfully provocative read. It has me considering the increasingly defensive positioning one might come to in the later stages of a bull market through balancing and rebalancing the fixed-income and equity components of one’s portfolio. I am considering capital preservation strategies including diversification between components of conventional bonds, cash & short term income vehicles on the fixed income side of things, and (ironically?) gold on the equities side. But I am also wondering about the inclusion of non-leveraged short or “inverse” ETFs (MYY, HIU and the like) specifically to hedge the risk of the long equity positions I might be inclined to hold or accumulate throughout a market downturn, and also to provide the possibility of some positive equity-based returns in a declining equity environment. I wonder though about how reliable they will be in delivering the suggested returns, especially in what may be perceived as “crisis conditions” in the markets. Have they been tested over sufficient time and sufficiently variable market conditions to warrant confidence for capital preservation purposes? They seem to be investments in derivative instruments which are likely not well understood by many investors (me included!). That description reminds me of the “black box” ABCP investments that caused a significant crisis of confidence prior to the 2008 market meltdown. I also wonder about the dynamics of a derivative products market which becomes increasingly larger than the supposedly underlying repositories of value (the equities themselves). Should one be concerned that the next major market crisis may result from a loss of confidence and unravelling of the same derivative products that people may be depending on to protect them from a bear market? Am I completely off base or would you suggest any parameters for restricting one’s approach to investing in specific kinds of “non-leveraged” inverse ETFs or ETFs in general? Thanks for any thoughts! (Please feel free not to post this if you think it is unsuitable.)