Q: Hello Peter:
I decided to buy a small quantity (200 shares) of the HOD ETF to hedge a bit against my oil stock holdings (Ithaca, Iona, Surge and Freeport McMoran). It fell hard yesterday with the news of the 8% cut in drilling rigs on the continental US. I am still expecting the oil price to fall further between now and the next OPEC meeting on June 5th.
My strategy is that I will use the gain that I will get in HOD to eventually buy more of my oil stocks when the oil market turns around. If OPEC in June does not cut their production then the oil price will fall much further before it bounces back. The U.S. inventories have gone up in the last two weeks at unbelievable levels - 10.7M two weeks ago and 8.2M last week. The reduction in rigs will not have a quick effect on the U.S. daily production numbers for at least 6 months. I believe yesterday's bump inthe oil price is a bit of an over reaction and will go down again next week when the inventory numbers come out for last week.
When you look at the HOD it states that it is a daily calculation based on the WTI price. How does the ETF actually work because it has increased more than the stated 2 times the drop in oil price? If my hedge is wrong I will still be very happy because my oil stocks will go up instead. I am banking on a increase in the oil price 2 to 3 years from now so I am not concerned about this blip but would like to hedge a little bit right now to make some money on the downside trend. What is your opinion of this strategy?
Thanks,
Brendan
I decided to buy a small quantity (200 shares) of the HOD ETF to hedge a bit against my oil stock holdings (Ithaca, Iona, Surge and Freeport McMoran). It fell hard yesterday with the news of the 8% cut in drilling rigs on the continental US. I am still expecting the oil price to fall further between now and the next OPEC meeting on June 5th.
My strategy is that I will use the gain that I will get in HOD to eventually buy more of my oil stocks when the oil market turns around. If OPEC in June does not cut their production then the oil price will fall much further before it bounces back. The U.S. inventories have gone up in the last two weeks at unbelievable levels - 10.7M two weeks ago and 8.2M last week. The reduction in rigs will not have a quick effect on the U.S. daily production numbers for at least 6 months. I believe yesterday's bump inthe oil price is a bit of an over reaction and will go down again next week when the inventory numbers come out for last week.
When you look at the HOD it states that it is a daily calculation based on the WTI price. How does the ETF actually work because it has increased more than the stated 2 times the drop in oil price? If my hedge is wrong I will still be very happy because my oil stocks will go up instead. I am banking on a increase in the oil price 2 to 3 years from now so I am not concerned about this blip but would like to hedge a little bit right now to make some money on the downside trend. What is your opinion of this strategy?
Thanks,
Brendan