Investment Q&A

Q: Interest rates are dropping but bond funds are getting clobbered - they normally would go up - is there fear that huge numbers of companies are going bankrupt such that bonds will not be repaid? It doesn't seem to matter whether short term or long term bonds - they are going down. XBB down 3%, ZAG down 3%, ZCS down 4% today so far. This seems crazy. Is this a buy opportunity for corporate bond funds or is the great depression about to happen and everything should be sold into cash?

Q: A few times I've seen replies to member questions about oil companies and their debt to cash flow metric (OXY and OVV ring a bell, and 5X and 3X respectively ring a bell too, if I remember correctly). Are you calculating this? I don't see it in security details in 5i or my broker's site (or on other finance sites). Is it a question of having to read the balance sheet and cash flow statement, and if so what are you comparing? "Total Debt" (rather than "Total Liabilities") to "Total Cash from Operations" for the year ? For OXY the data I get presented (source is Morningstar via online broker) are Cash from/Used by Operating Activities + Cash from/Used by Investing Activities + Cash from/Used by Financing Activities = Increase/Decrease in Cash, however, I'm guessing you just use the first number, which for 2019 is 7.3 billion (so 38.6 debt / 7.3 total cash from operations = 5X)...is that correct? or do you get the ratio from somewhere else? Thanks

Q: In view of the severity of the selloff, would you accelerate buying stocks in this market or spread the over 6 months or more ?

Any indication what the new multiple looks like for the US and CDA markets vs foward earnings. I suppose it s anyone's guess but I thouht you might have interesting comments. Thank you!

Q: Hi, I am surprised bond index funds have not performed great at this time either? Which ones are doing well? Today is another bad day...investors brought to their knees..I personally have several lessons learned..One of them being never feel shy to take profits off the table due to tax consequences. .The second one being, the day you feel like selling your bond fund in order to purchase more equities ( while assuming that this would be for the short term)..is the day you should be selling more equities.. cheers,

Shyam

Q: Hello,

I am wondering what your thoughts are on the eventual recovery? We won’t know 100% until the virus plays out further but best guess, what do you think a recovery will look like?

My thoughts are that once the virus is under control we may see a quick turnaround in the equities market due to the economies ramping back up, but I am concerned that if this virus continues to provide more questions then answers we may be stuck in a longer downturn.

Keeping the recovery in mind, what are your thoughts on picking away at a Russell 2000 position over the next few weeks/months and what effect will a rising loonie (if Russia and SA work through this spat) have on the dollar hedging. Is it best to buy the Canadian version or the US version with this drop in the loonie and hopefully the eventual recovery in it.

TIA

Q: Hi 5i team,
Publish if it is any help or not. There is not much to do in the market these days, as it is what it is. I am just catching up on the Q&A and notice some negative comments about 5i on repairing damaged portfolios. Well, I don’t put any blame on 5i. We are in a bear market. I have been around the markets for a long time and bear markets happen, although this one was the quickest from peak to trough, although I doubt this is yet the trough. In a bull market, cash is trash. In a bear market, cash is king. You have said many times in your answers that asset allocation is our own personal decision. It is up to all of us to manage our own portfolios, raise some cash once in a while, review our asset allocations and to be able to sleep at night.
Thanks for all your work, especially during rough patches.
Dave

Q: So if they close the markets for an extended period, does one still receive the dividends?
Have they ever had a "brokerage holiday" akin to the "bank holiday"
Thanks.

Q: I always thought that it is wrong to regard bond etf's as fixed income. With all the equity carnage I also suffered a 4.46% draw down on XBB today. Individual bonds have a maturity date at which time your principle is returned; not so with XBB. Can you explain the reason for XBB falling off a cliff today. Thank you

Q: Your thoughts on this pls Peter/Ryan and team: with the VIX over 72 as I ask; historically (and I know all bets are off in this environment) and a best guess: are we "somewhere" near maximum panic?
Fyi I have been a net buyer over the last couple of weeks, panic creates opportunity imo. Your thoughts and opinions have been invaluable even though some have been hammering you for your answers..thanks!

Q: Hi 5i
Just so you know, I was going to ask a very similar question to the one asked about potential portfolio adjustment. I too read into your answers as preparing to repair a damaged portfolio.

My concern here is after reading most of 5i answers and trying to align thinking like long term manager, 5i takes this opportunity to wholesale change the portfolio. To make a move of this nature for an investor with skin in the game would suffer huge losses where it is a key stroke for 5i.

I can only hope to be profitable sometime again in the next ten years.

Dave

Q: In rebalancing just before the coronavirus and oil correction I find my self in a 27% cash position. { 18% American and 9% Canadian } . In following 5I's advice I decided to weigh in slowly. And am mostly looking at 5I's list of 10 stocks to purchase. First purchase JPM for a 4.6% position. Two days later and another large correction. I hadn't planned on another purchase this quickly but SLF { for a 3.5% position } is looking attractive at this price as the yield has reached 4.3%. CAE is also on my list but I think waiting and observing market reaction might be prudent on this one ..... My question is .... Should I be shopping by price entry points on stocks I like or by treating the market as a whole and wading in by observing and making my judgements on volatility ? I guess the question is stock versus stock market ? Also in a question this morning I got the impression 5I gave the edge to MOC over X . X is on my short list as well but with US cash to deploy MCO is tempting as well. Am I correct in my assumption you like MCO a little better in this sector ?

Q: Considering the huge drop in portfolio values, do you still recommend staying the course or would it be prudent to take profits where we still have them?

Q: You may recall my question a couple weeks ago when I had sold all equities and was building a defensive portfolio of inverse etfs (HXD, HQD, HIX, and volatility HUV) and asking for further suggestions for the troubled times ahead. I noted that this coronavirus is not a one off event (like 9/11 or the 2008 crash) but a steadily worsening situation on a global scale that was sure to lead to major declines (especially given how overbought N. Ameican markets have been) and also stoke volatility. My thinking was that having made the "trend my friend" during the 11 year bull market, it was high time to give the bear a chance. The virus was the spark, but it could have come from elsewhere, as we saw with the oil shock yesterday.
Needless to say, the returns on the bear bunch have been stellar (I keep moving up the stop losses to lock in any gains when the markets decide to turn positive). Each 'bad' day is putting more money in the coffers for the days of capitulation when it looks like the tide is finally turning. (Disclaimer: I don't recommend this approach to everyone, as leveraged etfs can bite both ways, and one must always use stop-losses). Many experts are chanting the old mantra "the best thing to do is do nothing" and advising us to keep our long-range objectives in sight. One problem with this is that after such routs, markets often look for new leadership and favor new sectors of the economy. This happened after the tech crash, when it was back to bricks and mortar.
My question concerns methodology: I don't really understand why anyone would hold any equities through the kind of rout we are witnessing (except maybe virus-driven names like Clorox or some of the Pharma companies working on vaccines). Isn't it far better to sit on cash (cash is king and queen) or do a bit of contrarian investing in order to keep eking out modest gains through the market mayhem? Then, one can rest easy until the dust finally begins to settle (instead of losing sleep wondering what the next day or next moment will bring), and gradually leg into your favorite long-term positions on the worse days? Am I missing something?

Q: I am coming into cash in August which will be roughly triple the value of my current portfolio.
I am not particularly jittery over this downturn and have a good 10 year horizon. To that end I have started selling puts on a few top US names. With the VIX as high as it is I can sell puts with an additional 10 to 15% drop from today's numbers and get a 8 to 12% pay out for August or September puts. At those numbers, I would be happy to own, for example, AAPL at a further 12% discount (with another 12% cushion i.e. money received via the put.) I m only selling puts on companies that I would like to own and in quantities where they would fit an overall portfolio allocation strategy should I need to pick them up. While I know this strategy is not for everyone, does it sound reasonable to you? Also do you know of Canadian stocks that have good liquidity in the medium term options market and are also good long term investments?
Thank-you.

Q: What would you look for in timing a buy? The vix at over 80? In particular I am interested in adding to my position in Verisk Analytics but this could apply to any stock.

Q: I hold 50 shares of bip.un in myTfsa and am up 50%. What will happen to this holding as of March 31 and what might be your recommendation? Do I have to tender the shares?

Q: My son has $ 1,000,000 sitting in cash and wants your best 10 stock or ETF picks for the next 5 yrs and what buying strategy do you recommend for example every wk, month, quarterly etc;
THANK YOU!
Nick

Q: Can you tell me what is the total drop % since the top. How often have 20% or 30% drops happened in the last 100 years?

Q: My question is about online access to investing accounts while visiting the USA. My accounts (Canadian equity accounts as well as US equity accounts) are domiciled in Canada. What are the rules for viewing or online trading in those accounts when I am in the United States?

Q: I am trying to understand how a payroll tax cut rumour can spark a potential bounce in the market and if a big bounce (should it happen) is just an artificial bounce or something to take seriously? To me it would seem that coronavirus is only just beginning to be felt in North America and that rate cuts and tax cuts can't change the impact of fear and potential shut downs. My question is do you think the market has fully priced in the impact of coronavirus on the economy or has it just reacted to the headlines with another probable leg down when earnings are dented?