Investment Q&A

Q: I believe that SGY will rebound sharply but want to use a five figure loss to reduce my capital gains this year. In the meantime what stock or etf would you recommend to replace SGY either temporarily or long term.
Thanks for the great service you provide.
Alex

Q: Cequence has taken it on the chin like all other stocks in the energy sector. Are there any concerns going forward or is it simply caught up in the selling tsunami? And if it is the later is it now cheap enough to consider adding to my position? I'm thinking a number of the energy stocks should have a fair size bounce in the new year. Your thoughts would be appreciated.

Q: Would appreciate a current opinion on Parallel Energy. Thanks

Q: Hi - the shares have been crushed in the sell off, are they a likely target or can they do the acquiring in this environment? what is their balance sheet like and any dry powder ? thanks

Q: Hi Peter and company. I would like a look into these as we head into tax loss season. I am interested in your analysis in these holdings... JOY,WRG. I spoke to management about the dividend in JOY but I do not trust the answer I received. Your thoughts... If I could impose these two I recently purchased for catalyst's in the near term... POE, MMT... I read many things on these company's from a variety of sources but they lack your honesty with NO BIAS.
Thank you as always Jason

Q: I hold Baytex in my TFSA. If I sell, I cannot claim any capital loss in this account. With COS cutting their dividend, I'm starting to think Baytex will be next, and then go down even more? What do you recommend - sell and replace with a better energy stock with a brighter future and better chance of recovery - or hang in for the long term with Baytex?
Thank you.

Q: Dear Team - could you please give us your thoughts on Mart? Two very significant and positive NR's were released and a 3rd should come before Christmas on the closing on OML 18. The stock is still down YTD and things have never looked better for the company. Thanks for you feedback.

Q: Hi Peter and Team, this is about the news that COS would be cutting its quarterly dividend by nearly 43 per cent. I have made a quick calculation, and based on the closing price of today of $10.98, the new yield would be of about 7%. Does my calculation make sense? If yes, is it okay to buy COS shares at this price? Thanks, Gervais

Q: hi folks,with cos/t cutting dividend 42% and production where CFPS15E decreased app $2.52 to $1.65,is this stock an avoid or is all bad news factored in and worth starting a position around $11sh,thanks as always,jb

Q: http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.cos/canadian-oil-sands-limited?postid=23197193

Mr. Hodson, at the risk of annoying you, I am providing this analysis with respect to Canadian Oil Sands (COS), which goes along with yours, and maybe further (as it is backed by actual buying of the stock). Was today's price a 35-65% discount and are reserves to last 90 years ? Do you foresee oil and COS substantially higher within the next year ?

Again, this is a private question, but feel free to let other members view your response if you think this is useful ?

Q: Hello,
With what is happening in the oil sector, can you list a few names that you would buy and hold for 5 year plus. I can take some risk (ok with smaller cap) and i don t need dividend. Also, please fell free to add names in other sectors if you feel they are treated unfairly. My approach would be to buy half now and the rest mid january. Thank you.

Q: On the oil getting whacked theme, have you guys looked a PRE today? Down to $8.20. They are forecasting the following:
A base case average WTI oil price assumption of $70.00/bbl during the year and the 2014 average Brent-WTI benchmark price differential.
Oil price realization is expected to average to approximately the WTI benchmark price assumption.
EBITDA of $1.9 to 2.1 billion and Funds Flow (Cash Flow) of $1.45 to $1.55 billion.

So the company is currently trading at just over 1X EBITDA and 1.5X Cash Flow. They do have debt on the balance sheet but at low rates strategically and are long term. Unless oil stays well below $70 for a very long time valuations like this seem crazy. What am I missing?

Q: Despite all the negatives about this company and lack of confidence even by the directors (based on their sales of stock), I see the CEO has been continuously purchasing shares from February to the present. He had about 100,000 and now has about 450,000 (direct and indirect). Is he an idiot or should I be following his lead? As always, I very much appreciate your opinion

Q: Hi,

I bought this a couple weeks ago thinking it was over sold. Was I wrong! I'm down 25% in a couple weeks and it keeps dropping. I read of fears with the dividend and price target cuts to $74! What do you make of this? I'm happy to hold for a long time but worry that, like ACQ and AVO, logic has nothing todo with it. Should I sell?

Q: Enbridge is up substantially today (Great!), but I'm not sure why transferring $17b to anther company creates so much value?

Poor old BDI, what did they do to deserve this drubbing?

Your thoughts as always, are greatly appreciated.
Mike

Q: I am looking at some of the oil stocks and see SGY and PD for example are trading at or below book and with a P/CF of less than 5 (based on stats from TD's web broker). Both pay dividends, though these may yet get cut a bit. Sure there is likely to be volatility for a while, but if not these, what metrics would you use to say it is time to start overweighting some of the sector?

Love your service!

Q: The other day Jeff Rubin, on BNN, talked about his 2008 thesis for $200 oil; and how the shift in world oil industry dynamics has altered the competitive landscape and hence oil prices. His current position is that oil prices will continue to fall until the high or highest cost producers cut back or shut down production, namely and mostly, Canadian Oil Sands players; but also US shale plays as well. Until these companies do cut back he expects oil prices to continue down. Where the bottom is no one knows.
In his mind, it is naive to look to Saudi Arabia (the low cost producer) to cut back at all.

Do you agree with his reasoning?
And do any oil sands or shale companies come to mind that might capitulate and reduce production?

Thanks again.

Q: Good Morning 5i team

Temperatures are dropping in the US big time and another cold winter is likely. Natural gas is a major fuel source for both heat and electricity. It is produced as we all know largely as an "associated gas" when oil is pulled out of the ground.

According to S&A Resource Report, Natural Gas supply/inventory is at a 5 year low in the US. And at $60 PB many of the oil producers will be shutting down less profitable wells in turn reducing NG production when it appears it may be needed the most.

My question is this... which well managed NG producing Canadian Companies would you recommend? And what is your view on my above comments?

Thanks for all you do

Gord

Q: To Rick's question of Dec. 1 regarding Birchcliff's dividend: Birchcliff's preferred shares pay 0.50 per quarter. There is also bir.pr.c, paying a bit less.

Q: Hi Peter and Team, Do you think that SGY's yield of 14.085% is sustainable until some stability returns to the oil market? Hopefully they won't do a "COS". Thanks!