Investment Q&A

Q: Today, Reuters (Mike Dolan) published a piece "Financial Market Storm Brewing.." and the last paras stated:

"If investors are surprised by financial storm, it won't be because they weren't warned. Financial watchdogs have been waving a red flag about overstretched markets for the past year and stressed concerns again this month.

"There are increased signs of complacency in financial markets, in part reflecting search for yield amidst exceptionally accommodative monetary policies," the Bank governor Mark Carney said last week, citing conclusions of the G20's Financial Stability Board which he chairs.

"Volatility has become compressed and asset valuations stretched across a growing number of markets, increasing the risk of a sharp reversal."

Particularly because of Mark Carney's comments, this caught my attention. Any thoughts on how this might play out?

Q: Since we are having a correction, I need to free up some cash to buy stocks I have been waiting for to pull back. Do you recommend selling a partial position of a winning position or selling a losing position(precious metals of course).The new positions I want will help diversify my portfolio. I am tempted to sell the losing position. Also, could you guys give any recommendations on a course of action with this correction and any possible future outlook of the economy etc..... Or any nuggets of wisdom you wish to throw out there.
Thank you

Q: Waiting for an entry point on your A rated stocks. Held on to excess cash for this reason. Should I just go with A rated or lower? I know you don't like to time the market but what might be the turning point clue?

Q: The Russell 2000 index is now negative for the year and looks (to me) like a topping pattern. Is this likely to be an early warning?

Q: What's your view on what's going on in the markets today?

Q: Hi Peter and team,
If Scotland say YES on Thursday, how bad will affect us in Canada - Will TSX Index down 10-15% ?
Thank you for your great service to all members !
Regards,
Tak

Q: Hello Peter,

What a difference a month makes! In August you wrote an article on reasons to be bullish and a short month later you identified reasons to be bearish. It is now up to us to navigate in those cross currents. At the end of August, I had decided to raise some cash in my RRIF portfolio (I’m 71); it now stands at 15%. If a correction occurs and some of my holdings pull back, I will take advantage of opportunities.

But what worries me are the doom and gloom scenarios that some pundits elaborate and that forecast cataclysmic crashes. So I decided to research for the principal reasons that caused the tech bubble in 2000/01 and the more recent 2008/09 crash. I found out that the answer lies in the bond market, specifically in the yield curve. In the period prior to the tech bubble, the yield curve had flattened and reversed and in the period prior to the recent crash, the yield curve had flattened.

Why is that fact significant? Financial institutions borrow money on the basis of short term bond (lower) rates and, in turn, lend out on the basis of long term bond (higher) rates; they make their money on the differential. But if the yield curve flattens or reverses, these institutions will cease to borrow and lend; as a result, the liquidity in the economy will dry up leading to stagnation and crash.

Knowing very well that there must be other reasons for the downturns, I take comfort in falling back on the KISS principle.

So, I routinely (daily) make it a point to take a look at the yield curve and then move on.

I appreciate your comments,

Tony

Q: According to your article in the September 12th issue of the Financial Post, you appear to have taken a bearish stance. What is your outlook for the markets over 1- year, 3-year, 5- year and 10- year time periods? What cash/equity proportion in your portfolio would you have currently?

Q: re: Mitigation Strategy (MS)and lagging equities

Saw your answer for Rita re the MS and your comment to reallocate into stocks that "are lagging."

Could you give us a few examples of your opinion re which equities you would consider are lagging?

Thanks for all your do

Gord

Q: Hi Peter and team:
Just inquiring about your view on Cad-US over the next 3 to 9 months. Appears recently to be in a trading range between 90 to 94 cents. Do you see this as the possible range in the near term and if so what catalysts or negatives are possible to change this scenario?

Q: considering Europe's weakness, do you think this will have a negative effect on cdn $ ? (ie weak oil and other commodies)

Thanks, Bob

Q: Hello again Peter and Team. Would you be able to rate the Ten sectors as to their potential volatility within a correction or recessionary environment.I am sure that Financials would be the strongest suit, but not sure which way I would lean towards in considering the positive, or negative potential of Energy, Utilities and Industrials. I am particularly interested in where you would place Materials and Info Tech. Your thoughts please? Thanks again.
Rick

Q: Hello: Further to the August 06, 2014 question asked by Paul about the recent market declines... If someone has cash to invest, what would you recommend? Wait till close to the end of Sep.? Wait x weeks to see if the markets "settle down"? And, please tell us where and how to look for the volumes you mentioned? (Total market or individual stocks or etf's?)

Just a few days ago, I invested about $100K in some US etf's. They are, of course, now down about 1.5% to 2.5%. I have a further $275K to invest. Is it best to wait?

Q: Peter or Ryan.... The markets have fallen dramatically over the past week and, with oil approaching $95 a barrel, do you think we are slowly moving into correction territory? August traditionally has been one of the worst months for the stock market, if not THE worst. And, if the markets do correct 10%, how easily could 10% become 20% or 30% with stop-loss orders kicking in on the way down? Your comments please.

Q: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/the-man-who-foresaw-the-2008-crash-now-says-stocks-are-in-a-highly-advanced-bubble/article19812168/#dashboard/follows/

Hi Peter,
I would be very interested to hear your thoughts on this article. Thanks in advance.
Best regards,
Judith

Q: Hi Peter. I have been hearing rumors of a severe correction or even a crash of the markets. Last year in May, a friend of mine panicked and cashed in all his stocks and funds because of the same rumors at that time. It was obviously a huge mistake, given what the market has done in the past year. I know that no one can time the market with any real accuracy. However, I am getting a little nervous. Is it a good time to have more cash in my portfolio. In other words would you recommend selling stocks that have done really well in the last year in order to have the security of cash? Thanks for your great insight. Cam

Q: may i have your thoughts on, 1) central banks owning 29 trillion of world equities. 2) the demise of the petro dollar and how it would affect n.a. markets if the saudis start selling thier oil in other currancys (yaun, ruble, gold,etc.) tkx pat

Q: This is by way of me trying to figure out why the market will suddenly shoot up or plunge down. I guess I can't help always seeking a reason. The reason given for today's big drop in the TSX and the DOW is tension in Iraq (or so I read on Bloomberg). This confuses me. The worst hit sectors were materials (Gold) and energy. Why would people fearing turmoil in the middle east sell off energy stocks in Canada? Would they not benefit? And isn't gold supposed to rise during times of tension? Or is Bloomberg simply seeking a reason for the fall and plucking that one of out of the air?

Q: Team,

I've read a couple of recent articles and continue to hear BNN talking heads talk about inflation / inflation risks to the economy, hoping to get a 5i opinion on the matter, specifically:

1. What industries would be hurt the most by inflation?

2. What is the best way to protect your portfolio if one feels inflation will start to creep back into the market? Do we just buy more gold / gold companies? Are there other industries that can benefit from inflation?

3. Based on recent reports (CDN and US) what are your thoughts on inflation risks over the next 6-12 months?

Thank you for your insight.

Q: safety??
the market seems to go higher and many feel a significant correction is coming. what say you ??
Which stocks might fair best in a serious correction or and bull market.A short list with a reason would be very helpful.
thanks
Yossi