Investment Q&A

Q: There’s a widely held belief that a recession will occur fairly soon which would see the US ten year yield decline, but there are also bond experts now predicting that the yield could rise above 13% within seven years. If that happens, does it mean that dividend paying “bond proxies” like pipelines, telcos and utilities will just keep drifting lower? Does the same apply to mining companies? What’s the investment thesis for such assets in a world of rising yields?

Q: Everyone. AI is at the beginning of a great breakout in many industries. AI is in exponentially growth period and the early adopters will benefit but the biggest beneficiaries are yet to be identified. I didn’t understand the benefits of MSFT or APPL in their pre-real growth stages. Will AI change the stock market in a profound way the humans will not be involved ie the human stock pickers. What tech areas should I look for be looking for or are they in my view already? Should we believe in the large cap tech stocks will continue to lead, or buy, the AI technology revolution? Clayton

Q: On Sept 7 Dave asked a currency question and your response was: ‘ The US economy does seem stronger, and we think the US dollar will outperform. Also, when investors get scared, and move to a 'risk off' mentality, they move to the US dollar for safety. Generally, we don't spend much time predicting currencies.’
We’ve recently come into some US dollars and are hoping you could provide some direction for us despite your reluctance to speculate. Brian Ackers’ prediction on BNN this week is the Canadian dollar will fall dramatically to 68 cents. We’re not interested in perfect timing but would like to convert some of it within the next 3-6 months. Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

Q: Everyone, if interest rates stay were they are today ( or higher) for three, four or five years - what would that do to the tech market? Specifically the large tech companies. Clayton

Q: Dear Peter et al:

This is a big picture, non-personal question of a "fictional" account of a million dollars :)

From your answers to various subscribers over a period of years, I know that you have always said the portfolio construction is based on individual's personal needs and wants. Agreed!
Hence this general question!

If one wants to have 20% of the portfolio in NON correlated, steady as she goes kind of stocks or bonds, what should one buy?
I see that even though the stocks and bonds are not correlated, in 2022 they both were severely punished. Gold hasn't gone anywhere. Energy was down now but has gone waay up!

Even the ardent fans of Technical Analysis seem to be "confused" about non performance of their Intermarket Analysis approach. (John Murphy)

So, the question is how can one construct a portfolio with non correlated assets and come up with an asymmetrical barbell portfolio (Nessim Taleb?)
I have been looking at Utilities, Financials, Emerging markets, bonds, Gold........nothing seem to be appealing!

Any words of wisdom?
Many thanks in advance.

Mano.

Q: Thoughts on whether or not you think we will have hard or soft landing. If one is a long term investor looking for income/growth what is your advice during this time especially watching areas like utilities/reits go lower and lower? Cyclicals too, not looking good and if we go into a hard landing with lots of bankruptcies things could get a lot worse. Thanks for your insight!

Q: Everyone, will we have a recession in the next 12 months? Also, how does tech compare to the broader market during a recession? Clayton

Q: Hi Team,
With the recent weakness (since the end of July pretty much) it seems like growth stocks, tech have been weak. Do you see this as the start of another "free fall" in the market like we had in 2022 for growth names? I find it odd that the central bankers are telling us how "hot" the economy is running and continuing to raise rates, yet the CEO's all speak of the current "challenging economic period". Sometimes I question the job numbers as being highly manipulated. I heard the other day Canadian jobs were high, but immigration was also at record highs and only half the immigrants got jobs which means the other half are a drain on our economy. I am seeing headlines that credit card debt is at record highs. Consumer spending numbers the government pumps out makes it look good but if that is all credit card debt spending then that's just a crisis in the making. I see today a headline of BMO shuttering indirect retail auto loans due to bad debt. It almost seems like right now that there are no catalysts in sight to support stocks. My portfolio has came up nicely this year but is still a far cry from its 2021 highs being that I was tech heavy. And now I feel like we are headed for another big drop or crisis. What's your take on this and is it time to head for the hills and take risk off the table? Thanks for your input!

Q: Currently, investment focus is on those companies that are developing technologies centered on AI. Can you speculate on what companies or sectors that will be the next wave to attract investment by being enabled by these new technologies.

Carl

Q: Dear 5i team.

The news is filled with headlines of strikes, and fairly hefty increases in Salary, both sides of the border. At what point is wage inflation going to be an issue for the Fed and BOC? What is your view on the wage inflation train leaving the station, and possible impact 6 months from now?

Many thanks for your insights.

Q: Just curious if you can enlighten me on the liquidity/risk of individual preferred shares? Are they liquid and what would you be looking for at this stage of the interest rate cycle. They seem to be beaten down pretty good, and the yields are compelling. Also, would you do perpetual fixed or floater/resets and why? thanks

Q: What drives the value of a Canadian dollar against the US dollar? We used to be a petro currency but the Canadian dollar is continuing to fall even with WTI oil above $86.00. Some were saying that our dollar follows the US S&P 500 but that doesn't seem to be happening either. Finally some say we weren't as aggressive as the US with our interest raises. I would appreciate your views on this topic. According to RBC the cost of a US dollar for average buyers is1.3955 as I write. Are there cheaper places to buy US dollars besides banks? Thanks as always,
Dave

Q: thoughts on interest rates inflation timeline thanks

Q: Hi 5i team:

So today (Sept 1st) there was economic news on a slight contraction to Canadian GDP and the TSX rocketed up, presumably on assumptions about the implications for interest rates. I know you have mentioned in the past that by the time a recession is officially declared we are probably well on the way to being out of it. I’m assuming that the “smart money” probably has more subtle indicators that they watch that probably don’t necessarily make the daily mainstream headlines? Curious if anything maybe below the average investor’s radar has caught your attention of late that has caused you go “huh” with regards to the market (I have learned to appreciate your insights over the years). Thanks,

Q: Retired, dividend-income investor. I have funds available over time to invest in / top-up some of my positions to meet long term asset allocation targets. I plan on continuing to invest these funds over a number of months...as I have been over the past 8 months.

The question is = in what order do I buy the following = XST, XIT (several BNN-ers say to avoid adding to technology at this point), BCE, BNS, LIFE, ZUT.

One method is to wait for these securities to hit my price targets (based on hitting a combination of fundamental and technical targets (a little bit is kind of bottom-feeding).

A 2nd method is looking at setting the order of buying, based on where one thinks each security is relative to their historic value.

Ignore asset allocation...these are smaller amounts and the AA is reasonably good right now.

My suggested order, subject to where each security's price is at (please shoot holes in my plan):
Sept = BNS,
Oct = XST-#1 (in 2 tranches-spread out),
Nov = ZUT-#1 (ditto),
Dec = XIT-#1 (ditto),
Jan = XST-#2,
Feb = ZUT-#2,
Mar = XIT-#2,
As each hits their price target (minor adds) = BCE, LIFE.

Please state your order and why.
Thanks...much appreciated...Steve

Q: I keep seeing and hearing questions about interest rates going down. I'm in my 70's. I had my first mortgage in 1985 at somewhere between 10 and 12% after my family helped me scrap together the 25% down required at that time.
I think interest rates are just normalizing (see https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-210-x/2010000/t098-eng.htm) and I do not understand why anyone would think rates would go lower? Could you explain?

Q: The Labour Contracts being signed today at 30 % and 40 % increases Airline Pilots, UPS, Port Workers in BC and more to come by Auto Makers and Hollywood means more inflation down the road and higher rates by Powell. This could go on for years. Causing defaults on Mortgages ,personal bankrupcy , credit card defaults. It does not look good.



Then there is China and unemployment of 25 and under at 26 % . No Jobs. China is fully built. Apartments Condos High Speed Trains, Highways etc. Nothing else to build. This will cause unrest with the young. What can XI do.. Not more military. They have the largest in the world

Then there is the expansion of BRIC by adding 6 new Members like Saudi, and Iran. plus 4 more.

And what about stealing of goods from all retailers and nothing being done to stop this stealing. Even people walk in to LCBO and help themselves and staff is told not to interfere. Why because every bad guy probably has a gun,




Question Why Own Stocks Why not Just a laddered Bond Portfolio of 1 to 7 year bonds with a yield of 7 % plus for the next few years.


Sorry for such a negative outlook . Look forward to your comments.


RAK

Q: Could you please elaborate on your response to Tim today where you stated “ the odds of a recession we think are actually diminishing now.”
I have concerns on China’s messy economic future as a headwind. Thanks for your thoughts.

Q: In many of your responses you mention the scenario of interest rates peaking and then going down. However, there is also the possibility of "higher rates for longer", I've heard mention of up to a decade. I've also read that 5% is historically a very average rate. If this scenario plays out, how will it likely effect dividend blue chip stocks and the markets in general? I know this is a predictive question, but I'm looking for your knowledge based on what has typically happened in the past with sustained higher interest rates over a longer period. Thank you!

Q: I know it is uncertain but when/where do you think this rate hike cycle will end ? Do you think the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note will reach 5-6% ?
Thanks !