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Investment Q&A

Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.

Q: Hello team, How would this news released yesterday (19 April) affect PHM? Worth holding?
Thank you!

...announced today that it has promoted Greg Crawford to the position of Chief Operating Officer.

In finalizing the post-closing payments for the previously announced acquisition of Patient-Aids, PHM and Mr. Crawford have agreed to amend the original purchase agreement which required PHM to pay approximately $11.4 million to Mr. Crawford in a combination of cash and shares over two payments in April and October 2016.

Under the amending agreement, Mr. Crawford has elected to receive all of the remaining consideration due under the original purchase agreement for 33,758,952 shares in addition to stepping into his new role as Chief Operating Officer. As a result, total insider ownership will exceed 20%. In addition, PHM will issue to an arms-length party 285,000 shares associated with the closing of the amendment. The foregoing transactions are subject to final approval of the TSX Venture Exchange.
Read Answer Asked by Silvia on April 20, 2016
Q: I am sitting on the sidelines with well over 6 figures intended for the oil patch. However, I have decided to wait a little longer based on current prices and/or conditions. In the interim I was contemplating parking funds into GUD based primarily on your very positive opinion of the CEO as well as the companies excellent Balance Sheet notwithstanding the current stock price which is currently flat from last year at this time. Your comments are appreciated. Thank you.
Read Answer Asked by Robert on April 18, 2016
Q: Hi Peter, So tomorrow probably would be a significant down day as this futile attempt by this credit holder to ask for default. Can you give me reasons why some rational investor should not buy(as company already promised filing by April 30th)? I see these positive short term catalysts. 1. 10-K file by 30th April, 2. New CEO in weeks, 3. Probably some analyst upgrade days after 10-K filing, 4. 2nd quarter report showing nice cash flow. On the negative I see 1. Hilary Clinton's posturing and other headline risks. Can you please think of any other negative catalysts I am missing? Your detail analysis please.

Also is there an opportunity in Valeant bonds? Can you please provide some tickers of their bonds(probably those are maturing after 2018) from your Bloomberg? I could not find it. And your detail analysis on their bonds please. Much appreciated.
Read Answer Asked by Sridip on April 13, 2016
Q: Hi Peter, So my RBC Direct Investing just removed the ticker from my portfolio for Guestlogix. So my $8K is worth zero now. I called the Guestlogix IR department but no one is picking up the phone. Is there any way to get any dollar back from Guestlogix? I meant should I keep trying their IR department? Do you know any other way?

My worry with PHM is similar, I am 80% down on it. Do they have any debt? What kind of cash flow they are generating? Are there business fundamentals improving? Can you please provide their price to cash flow and price to earnings for 2016? Last year when they was acquiring did they issue debt or issue shares? Do you think it would go higher if I just keep it for 2-5 years? Can you please name any other public company in the same business like PHM(and what is their valuation?)?
Read Answer Asked by Sridip on April 13, 2016
Q: Looks like GUD has broken out and it is now above its 200 MA. Is it time to buy more? I'm in for the long haul. Thanks.
Read Answer Asked by michael on April 13, 2016
Q: Your opinion would be appreciated, as always, many thanks!
Read Answer Asked by Clayton on April 11, 2016
Q: What are your thoughts about today's news release ?
Read Answer Asked by Norman on April 11, 2016
Q: I lived through the BreEX scam and promotion. Kind of watched the GXI Guestlogix episodes. Now watching PHM.So many companies are well promoted and pushed. The analysts are not infallible and listen to the company lines. If it makes sense, we take a look.
My question is simple. PHM has a business. Management is changing. Is it a viable, potentially good company that can survive and prosper? Or is it likely to end up like GXI.
My take on BreEx was that it was totally dishonest. GXI was incompetence by management. How about PHN looking forward 2 -5 years.
Read Answer Asked by Ronald on April 11, 2016
Q: It is, of course, audacious to disagree with you considering your enviable success record and experience but I can't come to terms with your defensive posture regarding the fair and detailed member question concerning the rise and subsequent fall in PHM's share price. PHM revenues were $70M in 2015 and guided to about $130M this year - lower than originally expected. How many other companies in your universe would you eliminate from your portfolio if this was the case? I think you are being influenced by the stigma rather than the fundamentals and have no reason to be defensive about dropping this company. First, no stock picker is perfect and second, who could have anticipated the avalanche that has consumed this company?
PHM is strictly a noise story. Period. The two new bosses have hunkered down and not made themselves available to combat the negativity this stock is experiencing. Good for them. Results should be the only barometer.
Every guest on BNN, except Ryan, has slammed the stock. The call-in show host inevitably pipes in , unsolicited, to add the medicare reduction while never adding a positive comment about a company that has had only one revenue reduction quarter in it's entire history. Inevitably, as soon as a caller asks about PHM, within a nanosecond, hundreds of thousands of shares appear on the sell side as short sellers stalk this company, taking advantage of the stream of undefended comments. At the end of the trading day, hundreds of trades transpire within the last few moments. There is a concentrated effort, taking advantage of this hysteria, to drive the share price into oblivion.
I was glad you dropped PHM and I wish BNN would declare a temporary moratorium on questions. Give them a year and we will see a company whose share price reflects the fundamentals rather than the noise. I am joining my suggestion by refraining from commenting again on this stock for 12 months. It's just time to let the company emerge from the cloud and see if they can prove their worth to investors. The downside is now thirty cents. What is the true value of a $130M revenue generating company? We'll see and good luck to fellow patient investors who see value in what is really a great idea - servicing seniors as their health declines.
Read Answer Asked by Steven on April 08, 2016
Q: What do u think of this stock for a 2 year hold in a 2.5% position?
Read Answer Asked by Graeme on April 08, 2016
Q: Original Question re PHM sent April 4
No answer received, so I am re-sending. Would 5i please respond?
Please see below:

Member feedback re PHM experience. Please publish in the Q&A:

In the 5i email update to members today, April 4, it is conveyed that it is now time to remove this name from the Growth Portfolio. From all that I have followed in the 5i Q&A, this is the first clear research opinion from 5i to be out of this position well after we have all witnessed (and I participated) in the round trip with PHM. As recently as March 17, the clear guiding research from 5i was to stay the course for a few more quarters.

While I fully appreciate that members must take responsibility for all our particular investment decisions, I think this PHM saga gives all of us a reason to pause and reflect on when any of us could make a better judgement to bail on PHM, and other such strong “upward momentum” opportunities, to decide to step away and take profits.

In retrospect, I would wish that 51 would have given members a clear guiding research opinion much earlier to step away from this former upside momentum stock. Just as you have given a clear guiding opinion by taking out the full weighting of Descartes out of the Balanced Portfolio today citing that it has had a good run, going forward it would be very helpful if 5i would do so with other names, especially "upward momentum" stories that PHM used to be.

As a learning opportunity to share with members, would 5i consider a review your experience with 5i research, thought and opinions 5i expressed on the PHM continuing story, in order to do a retrospective analysis to share with 5i members. Are you willing to identify at what points in time there may have been sufficient reason to step away from this position while it had most of a good run intact (well before April 4)? This may provide many of us regular people a hands-on lesson to apply going forward. We look to 5i to be in our corner to provide conflict free independent research, so perhaps this may be a “real experience” avenue to learn from the pros at 5i. What do you say 5i team?

SGR
Read Answer Asked by SG on April 07, 2016