ARX missed estimates and cut production guidance. We would see it as a HOLD today. We would view WCN as more attractive (BUY), and the stock could get more interesting if we see a shift in the market (more defensive). Decent growth is expected next year. Waste Connections delivered a slight earnings beat and affirmed guidance despite falling recycling commodity prices that may remain a headwind. Organic revenue growth was in the mid-single digits as solid-waste price increases offset declines in volume, recycling and FX translation. Margin increased nominally as commodity headwinds largely offset price increases. Guidance for 4Q was affirmed, and the initial 2026 outlook implies expectations of growth similar to 2025, assuming no further economic deterioration.
Free cash flow exceeded consensus as higher Ebitda and reduced working-capital outlays offset increased growth capex tied to new renewable-energy projects. Waste Connections’ net leverage remains toward the middle of the target range, supporting additional M&A and an 11% dividend raise.