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Investment Q&A

Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.

Q: Congrats on the new web site. Most definitely a big step in the right direction. Excellent work! Thank You. Greatly appreciated.

Few questions re web site or web site related.

I recently saw that somebody asked you for the consensus estimates for AVO. You stated "$0.22 EPS; $107.7M revenue".
- Looking at your web site (assuming I properly understand) it shows current estimate (and for last 2 months) "$0.20 EPS". Are you using the same source for your data? I am hoping to be in sync.

- Does the web site provide consensus numbers for Revenue, Net Income in addition to EPS?

- Side question. Analyst consensus numbers - are these #s based on the top line and bottom line numbers or "adjusted" top line and adjusted bottom line or "adjusted diluted".... or can it vary from one company to another (as I feel I have seen situations of the latter)?

When referencing the company section, are there restrictions to which companies you have in your database. I tried to access Amedisys (AMED on Nasdaq). No luck. Same challenge with CNI (on NYSE) but CNR present.

On multiple occasions there are questions pertaining to P/E in the Q&A. You always mention that you use forward looking P/E. Is the web site providing the forward P/E or other? Hoping to be in sync.

What is the update frequency for the "News and Media" section in the Company section?

Thank You!
Read Answer Asked by Walter on November 08, 2017
Q: My husband and I are seniors. I look after our portfolios (RIFFS, TFSAS and cash account containing US and Canadian securities. Thanks to your SPLENDID advice, we are up 26% on the year. I tend to let the winners run without taking profits. Should I consider doing this on a regular basis and at what stage? Again, our gratitude for your dedication to provide thoughtful advice to members.
Read Answer Asked by Elaine or Gerry on November 08, 2017
Q: I am a big supporter of your service but I am a little disappointed that the initial page I seen when I sign in is only showing the US markets and US movers. I know the NYSE is the most important market in the world and is a major influence on our Canada markets. However, I thought most of us bought into to this as a service for Canadian stocks. Especially in Canada with the dividend tax credit that is the primary focus of many Canadian investors. I think the US information is useful but should be a supplement for more detailed Canadian stock information e.g. movers by Canadian income and growth stocks.
mike
Read Answer Asked by Mike on November 07, 2017
Q: just a comment that i would like you to publish.
today you took pivot out of your portfolio, i was surprised but i immediately asked you a question and you responded in 5 minutes, saying in your last discussion with management you were uncomfortable or less comfortable, i immediately sold my shares,did not make any money on this one.
my point is for me this is where 5i research shines, as a retail investor i had no clue about pivot, but that one word uncomfortable , and immediately taking it out of your portfolio even with 7 per cent yield, was all i had to know.
thanks again, really fantastic stuff. where else could i get that info, answer— no where. dave
Read Answer Asked by david on November 07, 2017
Q: Hello Folks:
Thank you again for your terrific service!
I am a 71 yr. old investor who has never kept any amount of cash in our accounts.
I feel there may be a serious negative re-evaluation approaching for world
markets; therefore considering moving to a half cash position, as we rely on returns for a good portion of our income. It is a difficult choice as dividend and rising equity prices have been very good since the recession, however nothing remains stagnant.
Our portfolio is primarily large cap US stocks and some quality dividend paying Canadian equities.
As always, I appreciate your point of view and suggestions
Brian
Read Answer Asked by Brian on November 07, 2017
Q: Professionals have preferred means to determine value and whether or not they actually invest in a company. Free Cash Flow appears to often come up these days as a key consideration in interviews and their recommendations. Not all research sites provide it consistently across all sectors. I decided to refresh my memory but my research suggests there are variations? A recent guest on BNN provided a basic quick version. Corporate financials are not all reported the same way so that creates its own challenges.

In the case of the discount broker I deal with, their research reports provide FCF for certain stocks/sectors but not all. When I tried to duplicate their numbers, I ended up with different results!

Would it be possible to explain how you go about determining FCF? I am basically looking for something I can rely on for consistency across all market sectors. Or is that where/why adjustments must be made?

Your insights would be gratefully appreciated

Thank you,
Mike
Read Answer Asked by Michael on November 06, 2017
Q: Sharesight. This is exactly what you should implement into your services!!!!! It is such a perfect add on, that we will pay for, in my humble opinion. I am sure that the figures are not complete thru my discount broker or the port tracker that I use.
Anyhow, I would appreciate your opinion on it as I am contemplating it because accuracy is all we have to work from.
Also I am considering all ETF's thru Vanguard although I hold with I shares, Purpose and a couple of others. I appreciate your opinion .
IF 2 CREDITS fine.
Read Answer Asked by JAMES on November 06, 2017
Q: Do you have any comment on Bill C 27 regarding Defined Benefit Pension Plans being altered to Target Pension Plans which would introduce uncertainty in the size of the pension as the employer would shift risk to the employee. I am a retired member with a Defined Benefit Pension. The bill applies to Federal and Crown Corporation pensions but I can see the bill potentially affecting all defined benefit pensions. The bill is now in second reading and was quietly introduced. Actuarily sound pension plans would likely not be as vulnerable as those that are not.
Read Answer Asked by Donald on November 06, 2017
Q: I asked a question about staying in unregistered equities or paying off my mortgage at 2.79% a few days back. I was a bit surprised for equity guys to tell me to pay off my debt at 2.79%. I get it and basically asked the question because that is what I am likely to do...however doesn't that seem like a pretty low bar even when risk is factored in? Even if you assume I would be taxed at highest rate of 33% you only need to get me 4.2% to come out ahead. So can I interpret your answer that you expect your balanced equity portfolio to return below 4.2% in 2018 and that you fear your current run of 8% annual returns might be coming to an end?
Read Answer Asked by Tom on November 06, 2017
Q: I've made a ton of money on Warrants but don't know of any site that reports New Warrants as they are issued. FP releases a monthly report on the 1st. Business day each month....but that's too late as most are out of the money by that time.
Until a year ago the Star would everyday display high volumes and I caught the Warrants from there.....but they stopped reporting on that.
Do you know of any site that reports Warrants as they are issued?
Thanks for the great service. I've learned a lot and made a lot of money from it.
Cheers. Austin
Read Answer Asked by Austin on November 06, 2017
Q: Here are two strategies. I sense that a lot of us are doing 2) but that you would favor 1) am I right? How strongly do you feel about the pros and cons of each.

1) Pick one (or more) of the 5i portfolios and invest your entire nest egg into it. Keep the asset levels in sync with changes you make. Keep doing that for many years no matter what your emotions may tell you.

2) Pick and choose only certain stocks you want to buy looking at the 5i portfolios, also BNN top picks, the "Buy" ratings on your online investment tool, similarly with stocks not in 5i portfolio but that are discussed here in the question section, etc. etc.

P.S. I ask in the context of a basic semi-savvy investor who is no way as knowledgable as any expert, does not have the time or ability to become one, is retired and whose worst-case investment needs are simply to beat inflation over time to preserve purchasing power and deliver an income stream that does not run out before death.
Read Answer Asked by John on November 06, 2017
Q: from my week end "musings"The Reality of Long Periods of Underperformance
The following is from Meb Faber.  I felt it worth sharing with you.  Please feel free to share it with your clients.
One of the biggest challenges of investing is long periods of underperformance, or outright negative performance and losses.  Cliff Asness has a fun piece out on his blog where he talks about 5 year periods in stocks, bonds, and commodities and basically how anything can happen.
Unfortunately for investors there are only two states – all-time highs in your portfolio and drawdowns.  Drawdowns for those unfamiliar are simply the peak to trough loss you are experiencing in an investment.  So if you bought a stock at 100, and it declines to 75 you are in a 25% drawdown.  If it then rises to 110 your drawdown is then 0 (all time high).
One challenge for investors is how much time they spend in drawdowns.  It is emotionally challenging largely since they anchor to the high value in their portfolio.  If your account hit $100,000 last month up from $20k ten years ago, likely you think of your wealth in terms of the recent value and not the original $20k.  If it then declines to $80k, many think in terms of losing $20k rather than the long term gain.
I thought it would be interesting to look at a few asset classes and ask how long they spend in each outcome – either all-time highs or in a drawdown.  Below is a chart of a basic 60/40 portfolio’s drawdown since 1972, REAL RETURNS.  Notice how brutal the high inflation 1970s were to the portfolio:he investor only spends about 22% of the time at new highs, and the other 78% in some form of drawdown.  A few values for common asset classes below….
• US Stocks 17% new highs, 73% in some form of drawdown
• Foreign Stocks 12% new highs, 88% in some form of drawdown
• Bonds 16% new highs, 84% in some form of drawdown
• REITs 16% new highs, 84% in some form of drawdown
• Commodities 9% new highs, 91% in some form of drawdown
• Gold 4% new highs, 91% in some form of drawdown
• 60/40 22% new highs, 91% in some form of drawdown
Meb concludes, “So if you’re going to be an investor, get used to being a loser!”
print ONY if you think worthwhile info for members
CDJ
Read Answer Asked by claude on November 06, 2017
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