Investment Q&A

Q: When buying a company is it better to buy in only one account or purchase the stock in several accounts? I currently own SGY but in both the RRSP(2) and TFSA(2) account. Going forward with buying some stocks recommended from your portfolios just wondering if it is just better to purchase the amount up to 5-10% in one account?

Thanks
Dolores

Q: Hi Team, with the recent rise of Surge, I am down (only!) 16% and thinking of bailing to buy a few more stocks in your new growth portfolio. So far I own PLI, PHM, IT, XTC and DRT. Do you suggest this move, and if so, what would be the next 3 stocks you would suggest. Thank-you so much for your service.

Q: Further to John's point on the risk of Surge, my position is now relatively small. I am assuming that the bottom for the stock would be it s book value, since it does own tangible assets. First, what is the estimated book value of the stock and would that be a good proxy for the floor price?

Thanks for the insight.

Paul F

Q: Hi Peter,

Your recent answers about Surge Energy (SGY) have shaken me a little. Your advice is all about the long-term and don’t worry what the markets are doing with the current price. In answers to members, SGY has gone from a strong buy to a sell (Peter’s answer on April 9) in less than a year. In my mind, that means SGY is no longer a good long-term investment and should be sold by all members.

In your opinion (not worrying about sector diversification), IS SGY A SELL FOR ALL CONSERVATIVE, INCOME ORIENTED MEMBERS?

Is there a quick way you can advise all members about the change in your opinion on any stock you give advice on?

Thanks
John

Q: Hello 5I,

This a follow-up to a question you answered on the book value of Surge Energy; but applies across all Canadian E&P Companies. You noted Surge's book value is dependent on the price of oil and quoted a value of $68 US.
The problem I am having with your statement and all the other literature I read which quotes share price based on WTI is; What are the surrounding parameters that are needed to support the individual companies value. For example what is the exchange rate of the Canadian $ for the $68 WTI? At the current exchange rate this would suggest that Surge needs well over $80 Cdn to have a book value you suggested. Another question is at what oil futures price? If the current Contango widens so that a one year futures contract is $68 WTI; can I then apply that forward price to Surge, or which ever other company I am following?
Any clarification you can offer would be greatly appreciated.

Cheers,
Bob Ahearn

Q: Thank you for the details regarding SGY's year end however, I can't seem to square with their claim of achieving a Book value of $7.36/share!? My calculations don't agree with their Balance Sheet. Maybe it's because I'm from south of the border. Help & thanks again.

Q: My SGY is my worst performing stock down 70%. I just don’t know what to do. Will it survive or crash and burn? Do I sell at this HUGE loss in my TFSA or buy more or hold?

Q: Surge reported last on Feb. 11/15 with its management numbers - ie: NPV, etc, etc. What is the deadline for their 4th qtr.& year end audited financial statements? Thanks.

Q: Hi Guys,

I have bought Surge Energy over the past 6 months or so and I am down over 50%. One of my rules is to re-evaluate a company if it drops below 2% of my portfolio. If it stays below the 2% limit for a month, I have to invest more to get it back over 2% or sell my position. I have 2 questions:

1) Should the amount I already have invested influence me?
2) Would you buy or sell SGY today? I cannot just hold.

Thanks for your opinion.
John

Q: Since I am down about 50% on Surge am wondering if I should buy more to reduce my costs or go somewhere else like ATD or Parkland Fuel. Opinion please Thanks. Ernie

Q: Hi Peter and team,
I hold SGY and HWO as part of my O&G portfolio, you used to recommend these two for income. I am surprised with the lack of correlation with oil prices for HWO stock (is it due to small size?) and with unexpected behaviour for SGY stock today: the oil is up, Canaccord Genuity raised stock price target to C$4, yet the stock is down? Any explanations? Any thoughts on HWO and SGY perspectives and risk level? I have losses on both stocks but don't mind holding them if there is a light at the end of the tunnel :-)
Also, what do you think of CVE situation, is it a buy opportunity?

Q: Peter I hold only SU (Down 10)%) & SGY (down 58%) Should I dump sgy? What's a good replacement in the energy sector? thanks

Q: Hi
Looking for an update on a few of your recommendations I currently own:
Surge- Seems like oil has found some footing for now. Would seem like some kind of move to the middle would be in order after such a panic adjustment. Looks like you are suggesting a hold here. Do you have a sense for the underlying commodity price going forward.
Avigilon- seems to have recouvered from weakness. is there upside here or a good time to sell.
Descartes- same
Fiera Cap - same
Questor-same

Q: Sensing 5i's eroding confidence in Surge, I have sold my shares (even though you have recently suggested holding). Now I have zero allocation to the energy sector. I want to get back in on more solid ground. Can you suggest two stocks and a methodology for easing back in? Your persistence in recommending a full and proper sector allocation has been so valuable that the strategy has more than balanced out the loss in Surge. Yet I know I need to get back into energy. Thank you, don't know what I'd do without you guys.

Q: Hi 5i team!

With $47 oil would you know what SGY's approx. net back is? I know it was disclosed in the recent quarterly release at much higher oil prices, but the royalty rate also fluctuates. I am looking to go overweight in my portfolio with SGY and am willing to be patient with low oil prices for 2 to 3 years, but I am wondering SGY's "going concern" (risk of bankruptcy) with prolonged low oil prices. From my perspective if SGY is still making money at $30 oil when their hedges roll off then the long term investment should pay off?

Thanks for the advice and looking forward to the 5i Conference!
Angelo

Q: Will Surge Energy survive and eventually prosper? Is there a large short position presently and are you maintaining the confidence you have shown towards this company?
Thanks.

Q: STB - I know it's not a strong Balance Sheet - too much debt, etc. etc. but it has given my wife nearly 8% for over 3 yrs.& that huge French transportation co. has kept buying 95,000 shares per month for over 18 months. I can't find out anything else - can you?!

SGY - Insiders keep buying large - even last week. Any news??
Thank you.

Q: Royal Bank released an update with a new target of $4.00, sector perform. Their release also indicated an "exit net-debt-to-trailing-cash-flow ratio of 3.3x, higher than its direct peers at 1.9x". The SGY website indicated their "current" D/CF was 1.4x. BNN analysts have said that a D/CF ratio > 2.0 is a warning sign. Your thoughts please?

Also, I have been using P/CF, D/CF and hedging % (H1 = 34% @ $101, H2 = 14%) as a few of the metrics to guide me. Your thoughts please?

Thanks for your help,
Steve

Q: Do you plan on keeping SGY in the income portfolio?

Q: SGY Paul Colborne has stepped down as Chairman, however remains as CEO. Dividend cut by 50%. How secure is their reserve credit line?
PETER, You know the management of this Co personally. What is your current judgement?

ARX New issue as a Bought Deal. Current price is now down approx. 33% to 22.5 from 33.68. Does this represent a buy or a sell after the rebound in O. Thank you - Bob.