Investment Q&A

Q: A follow-up regarding the senior notes announced today at 9.5%.

Per http://concordiarx.com/concordia-provides-update-on-amco-financing-and-capital-structure-post-amco-acquisition/ , the maximum blended interest rate (including the new $790m of senior notes) is 7.25%. Therefore, if I'm understanding correctly, the senior notes announced today aren't priced any higher than CXR was expecting them to be on Oct. 15.

Q: Hello Team,
there have been more than enough inquiries about this company, here is another. Today, a 'Marketwatch' article indicated that the company has now determined the issue of unsecured senior notes of US$790m at 9.5%. There appears to be a negativity about the company and its difficulties in financing the acquisition. Would you be able to find out with respect to short sellers whether the stock suffers from serious manipulation? And if so, why is there no news from the company?
Communication should be key!
Thanks

Q: What's your take on the recent press release by Concordia regarding the offering of senior notes?

http://concordiarx.com/concordia-healthcare-announces-pricing-of-offering-of-senior-notes/

CXR seems to be conducting business as usual, getting deals done and closing the AMCo acquisition. The continued hammering of the share price is baffling.

Q: CXR hit $35. I have two questions. First, Jason Donville said that he called brokers and was told that a lot of the shares were owned on margin. Can we trust it is true and can we verify this using a bloomberg terminal or website? If not, it seems like a good way for a portfolio manager like him to encourage us to buy the "bag holders". Secondly, there is news today about Concordia offering "senior notes". Is there something not to like there? I don't know what "senior notes" are. Thank you!

Q: Is CXR a compelling buy yet or stay away? I have been holding off adding to have a full weighting in my position. The financing terms were obviously unfavorable based on the plunge today but at least it's done. My cost is substantially higher. what are your thoughts?

Thank you

Q: Hello Peter,
This is just and example but wanted your opinion. If you had 20k and the amount represented 5% of the portfolio, how much would you put into the 4 stocks: cxr, vrx, phm, nhc. I was thinking 10k cxr, 5k vrx, 2.5k phm, and 2.5k nhc. Appreciate your comments.

Q: I know, another PHM question...

In 2015 they acquired $161 million in businesses:
- Black Bear Medical = $10.3 M
- West Home Health Care = $14.2 M
- Legacy Oxygen = $4.2 M
- Sleep Management = $98 M
- Patient Aids = $34.3 M

In addition, their pre-2015 businesses were generating $35 million in revenue and $8.8 million in EBITDA.

The market value of PHM is now $117 million.

Assuming they didn't overpay for the 2015 acquisitions, I'm just wondering how there could be downside concerns, beyond the short-term, from here? Thanks

Q: With phm at new lows daily.The stock is obviously telling us something is wrong.What would make you go to a sell on this stock?Obviously the fundamentals would make your decision.The stock to me looks like .30 is where support comes in.Would there be good value @30 cents based on the new revenue guidance?

Q: I'm considering investing in this medical technology company based in Ireland, and would like your opinion on its stability and growth potential. Is it still a good buy at $74.
Many thanks

Q: There has been considerable turmoil in PHM stock price in the last week or so.

Looking back, we see the signs of momentum reversing from those that pushed it higher and now the same crowd walking away from it. People are voting with their feet mainly from fear and from people taken the advice from the President's Letter.

I had a specific question about PHM. They mentioned that the LOIs on the acquisition table are being actively negotiated to be 'all-cash deals'. How successful can these with the incentive for part or in whole stock-based details off the table now?

Q: Hi Peter & Team,

What do you think of VRX's Q3 results?

Thanks

Q: Hi,

Some of the selling in PHM is being prompted by analysts who were earlier recommending it and now backing away from it. Also, the company has revised 2015 annual run rate to 155M from 200M in their updated investor presentation. I think this has to do with their low share price making it difficult to finance new deals. What do you think?

Q: I just found this info. DO you guy's have a opinion? I can find nothing that has changed here except the market perception of the sector. Would you hold or sell especially after the beat down Friday afternoon.
thx for your opinion

Q: .give your assessment of this stock,please

thank you

Q: CRH is taking a real beating today. Do you have any idea why beside the fact of the sector it is in. You previously described this as high risk but also continued to like it. I also remember you saying don't get nervous an a bad Friday afternoon.
thx for any help

Q: BNN reported that they are having a hard time raising the debt is this as bad as it sounds?

Q: How much worse could this media nightmare get?

Reading everything that I can get my hands on, re: Concordia, the consensus is that "everything is fine" in the accounting department, and once the media flak settles down, this is still a good company, overall. We may all be in for quite a ride, but it will survive. That's what everyone is saying.

Nonetheless, does this not beg the question why they did it at all, and why they did it this way? The more I read, the more it makes me think that this is a case of the cobra swallowing the elephant: everything is digestible, but how long will it take; and while things are being digested, will the cobra survive, or starve on its own cleverness?

Q: Hi Peter and team,

You mentioned in your answer to Gordon "Bloomberg has a note indicating the debt issue is having a tough selling process, but the financing is there from the backers..." I just want clarification, does this mean if Concordia cannot sell enough of it's debt issue, the "backers" (financial institutions?) WILL FUND the remaining money owing so the acquisition deal can go through?

It is reasonable to assume that if the deal does NOT proceed Concordia's balance sheet would look more favorable in the short term? That they would then have cash on hand to wait for another acquisition or pay down debt? It would seem to me that either scenario (although very volatile in the short term) would be OK for a patient investor in the long run.

You quoted $4.25 USD per share earnings for 2015 before the deal; does Concordia not give an earnings price range (i.e.: $3.75-$4.50 USD) or just a single target number?
I'm also assuming that if the acquisition added say only $0.80 USD per share and you picked up the stock at $35 CAD which looks possible, and it got back to trading at 10 times earning, that you might see a 30%+ return in the next year. Or even a multi-bagger in the next 2 years? Not suggesting or endorsing to load up of course!

I have more questions on Concordia but I will put them in a separate submission. Please and THANK YOU in advance for answering all these questions as accurately and detailed as possible! I think your responses will not only greatly help myself but all your members who have been asking so many questions on this deal. I think I can speak for everyone when I say that I find your services invaluable and irreplaceable!!!

Thanks again, Shane

Q: Hi there,
Do you think this is a good entry point for XLV.US for a 2 year hold? Any opinion on this ETF?
Thanks,
Kerri

Q: Hi Team
This company is setting new lows daily with increasing volume.What is the possibility of fraud?I rely a lot on insider buying and at these levels no insider buying.What would change your bullish view on this company.