Investment Q&A

Q: I know this isn't a chat forum but I am intrigued by Saeed's question and wished to comment. Perhaps food for thought for some other members. I took a close look at Valeant also, because some of the selling was motivated by fear, and this can represent an opportunity. I chose to pass because:
1) I don't really understand how they are making the profits they report. They buy established companies with valuable products. OK. But what are they adding that allows them to earn so much more than the original owner? It is hard for me to believe that they can continue to grow this fast for very long. Anyhow, if I don't understand the business, I don't buy the shares.
2) VRX response to Citron, to me, was all bluster and obfuscation. VRX never came out and said in plain language that all their sales were absolutely legitimate. Instead they seemed to emphasize that their accounting was technically legal. And, by the way, whenever any organization delays giving answers but instead hires a team to "investigate" themselves....that is a sure sign they have been caught doing something wrong. It is a tactic to delay and hide the truth.
I hope for Saeed and others that VRX wrongdoing is only minor and that the core of the business is legit. Would be good for us all if it bounced back. I'll be on the sidelines though.

Q: Hello team,
On Monday last week, I purchased a 10% position in Valeant. This was after seeing the videos on BNN on both side and also asking you a question about my decision to do this. I reasoned that I am a long-term investor and I would not touch this money for at least another 10 years. This has not changed. What has made me question my original decision however is the promise of new report that is even worse, further reveals Valeant’s accounting practices, and shall “nail” the company following their presentation last Monday. I didn’t think philidor story could carry that much weight in the end and that is why I bought in. Now, I think where this whole story is going to stop with a masterfully planned report releases to do maximum damage. Would that point be “beyond point of repair” for the company?
I know everything is possible and I know you cautioned me against too much weight here. I made the mistake and I learned my lesson. My question here is how much I have to pay for the lesson. I know that the additional loss on Friday was a response to the news for this Monday release and the damage is already in the stock again. What I am asking here is: should I look away and ignore all of this noise or should I at least try to lower my weighting and reduce my overall losses. I will be still holding the company if it happens to be around 10 years from now.
I think time is the only thing I have on my side as a retail investor. Andrew Left and other short sellers have made their money. Bill Ackman will make money by averaging down. And perhaps, I won’t lose money if I sit still and don’t react at all.
What do you think?
Having you guys at 5i cannot be appreciated enough during such times. Thank you!

Q: I wonder if you are able to clarify Knight's business model with respect to the degree it aquires companies and then agressivley jacks up the price of existing drugs. This unseemly practice appears to be one of the big complaints about Valent and the possibility that legislators will go after drug companies and bring in regulations. I do not see that explicitly referred to in your 5i report but would like your opinion on this matter. I want to make money like everyone else, and I have read Ryan's blog on Valeant, but to the extent that the allegations in this regard are true, it seems a risky business model (and probably unethical) to me and the public at large. Thanks

Q: Convalo released August 31, 2015 quarter over quarter growth rate of 145% and an annualized growth rate of 580%. Does this meet or exceed expectations? Would also appreciate your explanation of why the warrants expiry has been accelerated to Nov 17. Thanks

Q: Hi team, I recently sold MCD (in an RRSP) after the run up, and am looking to redeploy cash into a blue chip healthcare or pharma stock in the US. I'm looking for reliable dividends with capital appreciation, and planning to hold for three plus years. MRK and PFE are looking like good candidates, do you have any favourite blue chip healthcare stocks that you think would be a better fit?
Thanks, Alex

Q: Until recently I had no healthcare exposure. My plan is to add about 4 positions in the US large cap healthcare/bio space. So far I have purchased JNJ and GILD. Can you suggest 2 or 3 other names? Based on the research reports I have read I am leaning toward CELG and AGN, but I'd appreciate your opinion. Thank-you.

Q: This isn't a question, just another interesting tidbit regarding the VRX/Citron drama. Feel free to post if you like...

From Reuters: "Short interest in U.S.-traded Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc shares stood at its highest in nearly a year in the first half of October, exchange data showed on Monday, indicating bearish investors were stacking up against the stock even before a negative report torpedoed the shares last week.

Short interest in Valeant shot up to 10.54 million shares, or about 3.1 percent of the stock available for trading, in the period to Oct. 14, according to FactSet Research Systems data cited by the Wall Street Journal.

That was the highest since the last half of October 2014 and an increase of 49.3 percent from the 7.06 million shares, or 2 percent of the public float, at the end of September.

Overall short interest on NYSE stocks declined 2.2 percent during the same period, exchange data showed."

Q: What are your thoughts on the Valeant conference call? It seems like they refuted Citron's claims but the stock has been pretty neutral today. Any idea why that is/do you think their response was satisfactory?
Thanks!

Q: JD on BNN today says ROE on VRX is 40+%. How does one arrive at that number?
What would CXR's ROE be according to your sources?

Q: sorry for another vrx question. when 5i removed vrx from the model portfolio what were the main reasons for removing vrx then?

Q: VRX isn't enjoying CRX's bounce. Is it facing stiffer headwinds because of direct accusations of fraud versus CRX's guilt by association, or do you think there's something else at work here e.g. it's business model needs to change, reducing profits going forward.
Bought CRX on the way down, is that trying to catch a falling knife or dollar cost averaging!! Average price $42, so fairly happy here, at least for the moment. Just wondering if there's an opportunity with VRX at this level or avoid altogether. My sector weight with CXR, GUD, PHM, PLI is 13%.
TGIF and thanks Peter.

Q: I will use Valeant as my example. When someone attacks your stock
And it is in serious decline why not call a news conference immediately. Refute the claims and announce a huge share buyback and have the short sellers squeezed.

Why do you not favour short sellers?

Q: I read the link to the Citron report provided here the other day and saw Mr Left on BNN yesterday. Bot the report and the interview revealed, im my opinion, were over-the-top to the point of being cartoonish. Citron's motives are obviously highly questionable. However, I can't help but think that Valeant doesn't own some responsibility for this. Why would Valeant not want to get out in front of this matter sooner? Why has Left done all the talking this week, while we have had so little info come from VRX?
The problem may very well be that Citron is correct in their accusation, and that VRX really wasn't sure what to say about it. It may be a small part of their overall sales, and the Enron comparison may be ridiculous, but it is possible that VRX got caught doing something wrong and can't refute it. That gave Citron a golden opportunity. Maybe we will learn more Monday. Just my 2 cents. Thx.

Q: Would there not be an opportunity cost by buying Knight now instead of a couple of years from now, since you keep saying that it is a five year investment, thanks?

Q: I was reading the latest TD analyst report (dated Oct. 22, 2015) regarding CXR and was a bit frustrated that they significantly lowered the price target not because of the earnings expectations for the company but on overall sector valuations/conditions (I would say this was primarily driven by Valeant). It seems the report was reacting to recent market events (which can quickly turn around) more than anything else, and doesn't seem to take into consideration that there will be a guidance announcement this coming Monday Oct. 26. Thoughts?

On a side note, is there a way to obtain all analyst reports for a security without paying an exorbitant amount? I have access to TD reports because I trade through TD Direct Investing but not much else.

Q: i do not own valeant or concordia-- i do own knight, crh and some others,but the article by ryan modesto on valeant leaves out the key point of this whole debacle--- this negative post by the short seller brought down the whole healthcare space across all spectrums and this to me is what the jason donvilles are really raving about-- it is totally unfair and wrong. i side with donville 100 per cent, this type of sensationalism and negativity must be eliminated. even if the short sellers post is true, it represents about 10 per cent of vrx revenue, which begs the quesstion should the whole healthcare space have been hammered the way it was?i think not,scary stuff.post if you want. dave

Q: Hello team,

First thing on Monday 26 Oct, I am moving to buy 500 shares of VRX. This will account for roughly 10% of my portfolio. I am even tempted to buy 1000 shares depending on your honest answer to the following question:

Is this a one time opportunity to invest in a good company suffering from unfair publicity or is this a moment of greed which has blinded many to see a broken story?

I have seen the interview with Jason on BNN and I am sorry for not buying VRX when it reached 116$....if Jason is right this company is worth north of $400/share. If Jason is honest and I know you respect him a lot, then why should I (or everybody else) hesitate and lose this golden opportunity? Or is he telling us all of this because he is massively invested in VRX and he is looking out for himself first.

I know you don't like target prices but is it even a possibility for this stock to see the light of $250/share ever again.

I know you will refuse my weighting in the company but I am more interested in your genuine and personal trust in the company's management and what the company is doing (borrowing to grow ROE at all costs) as well as your desire to invest in this company after all is said and done...., Today?

Love to hear back from you. I know your long-term investment logic and wisdom are the only thing that could stop me from making a deadly mistake. So thank you in advance.

Q: Dennis Mitchell gave a more grounded interview on BNN regarding the Valeant - Citron debacle, in my view. In short (oops!) he suggests it's the investor's responsibility to fully understand the business they have bought into regardless of what any research piece, pro or con, says. Further, Buffett would suggest a 'margin of safety' shield any purchase you are contemplating and that volatility can be your friend if you understand the underlying business. Read lots (not just 5i) and take the time to ponder before your purchase but in the end you are responsible for your investments, not the media, not the research firm, not any politicians.
Post at your discretion.
Tim

Q: I thought your readers may be interested to see Jason Donville's response to the short sellers of Valeant:

http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=733570

Some harsh words against the unregulated short market.

Q: GUD is apparently well positioned. They have money and they have the skill set. Waiting for it to move is seemingly like waiting for Godot. When do you think they might pull the trigger with the money they have and make and investment? See you at the show.