Q: Good morning,
Regarding WTI and expectations for continued price pressures for H1 2026 for reasons we all know well, I want to get your thoughts on China demand for Venezuelan oil. China has been the largest buyer of Venezuelan oil, and following the events of last weekend with Maduro and comments yesterday from Trump regarding the US “taking” ~$2bn in sweet crude from Venezuela, do you think China leans on Iran and Russia for their crude requirements near term? Or do you think there is potential for Canada to play more of a role?
I am at a bit of an inflection point on names like CNQ/Suncor at the moment, and would appreciate your views.
Thanks as always.
Regarding WTI and expectations for continued price pressures for H1 2026 for reasons we all know well, I want to get your thoughts on China demand for Venezuelan oil. China has been the largest buyer of Venezuelan oil, and following the events of last weekend with Maduro and comments yesterday from Trump regarding the US “taking” ~$2bn in sweet crude from Venezuela, do you think China leans on Iran and Russia for their crude requirements near term? Or do you think there is potential for Canada to play more of a role?
I am at a bit of an inflection point on names like CNQ/Suncor at the moment, and would appreciate your views.
Thanks as always.
5i Research Answer:
China is likely offended by the US moves in Venezuela, so we would 'guess' they are more interested in Russian and Iranian oil just as a political move. But Canada should be able to see some larger global role in the sector, hopefully, and China makes sense as a new customer. Because (new) Venezuela oil may take a long time to come to market, we think the negative reaction to Canadian sector names is likely a bit overdone.