Q: Hello 5i,
Thanks for the detailed and quality answers during these "interesting" times. I know predictions are pretty much "off the table", but ... I wonder if you could ponder the chance over the next few years of a dividend cut at the Banks. (1 = impossible, 10 = possible if things get really bad).
Knowing that such an action would be a very tuff call for the banks to make. All Canadian banks in general, but specifically TD and BNS (which are some of my TSFA holdings and used to generate retirement dividend revenue.
Thanks for the detailed and quality answers during these "interesting" times. I know predictions are pretty much "off the table", but ... I wonder if you could ponder the chance over the next few years of a dividend cut at the Banks. (1 = impossible, 10 = possible if things get really bad).
Knowing that such an action would be a very tuff call for the banks to make. All Canadian banks in general, but specifically TD and BNS (which are some of my TSFA holdings and used to generate retirement dividend revenue.
5i Research Answer:
We would give TD a 2 and BNS a 3. Nothing is impossible but both survived the 2008 relatively fine. Banks tend to be extra conservative and new safety regulations were put in place following the financial crisis. But there is some risk always. An economic shock, rogue trader or massive corporate loan losses or housing losses might, if bad enough, see a bank cut dividends for the sake of conservatism. But based on history, and their ability to raise capital or sell assets if things got really bad, it is not something we would expect in five years. Forecasting beyond that timeframe is even more difficult.