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  5. CTC.A: hi, can I get your thoughts on Canadian tire as a long term hold. [Canadian Tire Corporation Limited Class A Non-Voting Shares]
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Q: hi, can I get your thoughts on Canadian tire as a long term hold. in particular I am interested in growth prospects, dividend sustainability and dividend growth. do you expect more downside in price over short term? what price would be a comfortable entry point?
cheers, Chris
Asked by chris on September 12, 2023
5i Research Answer:

CTC.A is now trading at 10.8x times' Forward P/E;  historical averages range from 10.5x to 13.0x over the last few years. Based on consensus estimates, sales are expected to decline by -3% this year given weak consumer spending, and then normalize to around +3% going forward.

The balance sheet is quite leveraged, with net debt of $$7.6B and net debt/EBITDA is around 4.1x, Although the leverage is quite high, the dividend is quite well covered by cash flow in the trailing twelve months.
With weak consumer sentiment recently, we think growth near term would be a bit challenging.
Having said that, we think the current price would be a good entry point given it is currently trading at the lower end compared to historical averages and much lower than peers such as LOW, HD. It also has managed many prior recessions and other crisis quite well, and maintains a strong market leadership position in Canada in many categories.