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Investment Q&A

Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.

Q: Hi 5i: I am thinking about Amaya’s (AYA) valuation, at this point with the stock around $17.50ish, and whether it makes sense to add some. Relative to before the announcement, it seems there is now a new risk factor and a counterbalancing potential reward, the balancing of which indicates market approval via the pop to the shares. Presumably the difference between the market price and the equity financing price of 20.00 reflects some deal completion risk, at least in part, along with merged enterprise business risk. Could you comment on what that deal completion risk really amounts to? In other words, if this falls apart, which participant(s) would be most likely to balk and why? If the deal doesn’t close, AYA likely dumps back down into the $9.00 – $11.00 range, all else being equal. The guys financing it at $20 obviously think there is significant upside from $20. Are they likely to be averaging down with public market purchases in the meantime? On the other hand, is there any sense in which a stock price below $20 between now and the acquisition closing date might itself amount to a barrier to the successful completion? Or is the equity financing effectively committed at $20? Thanks for your perspective on these points.
Read Answer Asked by Lance on June 18, 2014
Q: great great stuff on Amaya, great article by ryan modesto. I had 15000 shares at 5.25 and rode it to 10. sold half when stocked dropped to 6.00, and bought it all back plus another 5000 at 9.00 when stock started moving quickly again, no complaints from me. last year paladin made my year and this year Amaya made my year all due to 5i research, unbelievable.only one caveat is for those of us who follow stocks hourly like me Amaya was a give away, news was leaked etc.etc., I wonder if the authorities will get on this one. dave
Read Answer Asked by david on June 15, 2014
Q: The 5i team: First of all Peter many thanks for the AYA suggestion a long time ago. I would like to follow-up on your statement “We think the stock goes much higher from here”. Would you please elaborate on that. Thanks.

If a similar question is asked, please don't publish and clog up the Question and Answer section as it is a valuable investment tool.

As always, thanks to everyone at 5i for your valuable service.

Doug
Read Answer Asked by Doug on June 14, 2014
Q: Thank you for the update on AYA. Very good news!
I went back to the charts for the last year and noticed that AYA was trading even below $7 for the month of April and even hit it's one year low. However, from then on it started to climb to it's incredible high right now. Can you comment on what may have contributed to this pattern? I'm thinking that people with insider knowledge (friends/family/etc) are passing on "tips".
Thanks for the wonderful service you provide!!!
Read Answer Asked by Brenda on June 13, 2014
Q: Dear Peter, First of all, thank you for your stock analysis on Amaya, and thank you also for your patience in answering my (our) questions. I am learning, but slowly, I know.
Question: you have said in a couple of places that Amaya is going much higher, but I can't tell if you said that after the roughly $14 closing price yesterday, or after the roughly $20 opening price this morning. (I now see--even more clearly--why you don't like price targets.) But i don't know what the shares in the bought deal being priced at $20 means, if anything, for the future. I have seen stock prices sink below the bought deal price with several companies. Thanks again, and cheers.
Read Answer Asked by Gordon on June 13, 2014
Q: Since I have not been a subscriber for very long, I missed out on the big price increases in BAD, BDI and ACQ and I am sure many others. Can I expect that AYA could possibly be as successful as the former three. I know they are in an entirely different sector (gaming) but is it in the realm of possibility all things being equal and everything goes right. I never seem to know when to sell and most often I sell too early but when I do not sell, my stocks seem to fall. I never seem to get it or out at the right time. So I am being disciplined and not selling AYA just because it is up huge in just a few days. Thanks. I am loving your newsletter.
Read Answer Asked by Helen on May 27, 2014
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