Investment Q&A

Q: In their recent news release they have this paragraph:
The acquisition and subsequent integration of a Schedule I bank and Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation (CDIC) member into Home Trust helps the Company further develop its deposit diversification initiatives much sooner than would have been expected if the Company continued to pursue its previously announced plans to apply for a separate Schedule I bank license, as described in a November 10, 2014 Home Capital press release.
Does this mean they will no longer seek to apply for Schedule 1 Bank status?
Many thanks
Mike

Q: Hi Peter and Team,

I currently still own some oil/services stocks that I'd like to get rid of. They include WCP, ARX, SES, and BDI. A couple of parts to my question... Which of these would you continue to hold? I was thinking either only WCP or WCP and ARX. What stocks would you recommend to replace them with that will have more short-medium term potential. I already currently own TD, ATD.B, ESL, CCL.B, SJ, BOS, AVO, AYA, DRT, BAM.A, SYZ, MDA, CXI, KXS, XTC, GUD, DHX.B, OTC, and PHM. For simplicity assume my larger caps are 5-7% of my holdings and my small caps are <5%. And would you recommend making this switch now, or wait until there's a bit more of an upswing in the price of oil? They are held outside my TFSA so I can take a tax loss on them.

Thanks,

Jordan

Q: I cannot find any information on Home Capital's site about the geographical breakdown of their mortgages. Finally I found a Seeking Alpha article suggesting that about 3% of their loans are oil patch related and that the majority of their loans are in Southern Ontario and in the GTA specifically. Is this correct and where might this information come from so I can get more detail? Thank-you.

Q: Hi, my position in HCG has fallen to about 2.5% (my full position is 4%). Would advise continuing to wait , or are you comfortable going back to full position yet?

Thank you

Q: Hello Peter!
Can you please comment on my portfolio.I currently hold in my portfolio (stocks - Weightings): CSU-11.2%,CCL.B- 13%,BYD.UN-10%,DHX.b-10.8%,ATD.b-15.5%,AYA-5.6%,ESL-7.6%,SJ-9.8%,CXI-5.9%,MG7.9%
,BOS-2.7%,TDG.US-3.5%,NOC.US-1.5%,CBM.US-1.8%,AGN.US-1.8% .

I also have 18K CAD to invest. Would you please give me your 3(non energy)buys today to complement my existing portfolio.
Thanks Andrew B.

Q: The influential Barron's magazine wrote about this company recently with some specific concerns.
1. This is no longer a growth company. It deserves only a market multiple for a subprime lender which is 1X book value and not 1.5X which means a 35% lower stock price.
2. They have razor thin margin to protect against a possible downturn in the overheated Canadian housing market with salaries not rising.
If these concerns are valid. I have a feeling the bears will pile back in. What is your view? Thank you.

Q: Peter and Team,

Have you seen this video from today on BNN? http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=669530

The discussion regarding Home Capital is sobering and I am curious if you have research that supports or refutes the guest's views?

Q: Now that all the information about recent events is public, will you be re-rating HCG in the near future?

Thanks

Q: For the sake of calming fellows here invested in HomeCapital. Items from the conference call going on right now:
1- Only 45 brokers out of 4000 falsified information
2- Only income was falsified, not the credit or property value
3- Nobody inside the company was involved with the 'trickery'
4- An anonymous letter was sent to the board to warn them. Investigation began as soon as the letter.
5- They don't anticipate higher losses from those mortgages

Q: Could you comment on the present situation with HCG, please. How does yesterday's disclosure affect the company? I understand that ties with 45 mortgage brokers were cut over discovery of falsifying borrower income. Should I sell and move on? Thanks.

Q: Any thoughts on Home Capital's earnings release and broker termination announcement? Thought with originations down, numbers might have been a little lower.

Q: Is there any way to tell how much of the recent high volume selling in Hoime Capital is short sellers adding to their positions or longs liquidating their position? If longs, how much institutional vx. retail?

I always appreciate your expertise.

Thanks

Q: How concerned are you regarding new revelation that a long standing director has resigned. Of note is the timing just before clarification on mortgage originations as well as no reassuring comments from the director involved. I feel it's too late to sell now but this seems like more worrisome news. Thanks for your comments.

Q: I note the article in today's Globe about Marc Cohodes and his shorting of HCG. I own it at $ 33.00. Is today's drop to $ 27.50 (a 52 week low) an overreaction ? Is it a bargain at these prices or is it a falling knife ?

Q: I have been waiting patiently for HCG to show signs of recovery, but it's chart looks like a steep waterfall. I am seriously considering selling it and buying a more stable financial such as SLF or BNS. I would appreciate your opinion on this strategy.

Q: You may have read the Barrons article of a few days ago. I would think it may have contributed to the further weakness of the SP. It sounds like a bit of a hatchet job but do you consider it has much merit? I currently own 600 shares at an average cost of $41, and although I still like the stock, think it might be prudent to sell half in case of further weakness or a prolonged sideways slide. What would you do? It is still just 5% of my portfolio. I continue to berate myself for falling in love with companies. Thanks.

Q: Hi Folks. This is really not a question but rather an addition to the discussion. On July 11 RBC came out with a report downgrading HCG from market perform to under perform. It seemed quite well reasoned to me and made the point that RBC now sees HCG as a steady growth company rather than a high growth company. They think this problem is specific to HCG and not industry wide. They think HCG can deliver double digit EPS growth long term but in the near term it is likely to be low to mid single digit.

Ross

Q: Sorry, yet another HCG question. I have owned the stock for sometime and have faith in management, however I am wondering how one interprets an extraordinary announcement like this.
In your response to Jerry you say the company screwed up. Management on the other hand would have us believe this is evidence of their "continued progress" with originations. Maybe the "rebound in origination volumes" is especially strong and they forgot to put numbers to it.
Certainly they expect to achieve mid term guidance despite everything.
The language in these types of announcements is so convoluted. Perhaps with your many years in the business you could help with a translation/interpretation.
Many thanks
Mike

Q: Hi Peter and Team,

We hold HCG in several accounts.

It's down substantially in our grand children's RESP, so we probably should just hang on as it's only 3.2% of a well diversified portfolio that won't be needed for over four years.

However, in my RRIF that holds many 5i recommendations, I'm still up over 8% as it's been a long-term holding. Should I hang on and "hope for the best", or swap it for another divided paying financial stock that has better prospects going forward? (We hold BNS in a margin account).

As always, your advice is highly valued.

Q: HCG took a big hit today on downgrades. Yet its ROE is still above 20% and it is a dividend grower. Concerns are over lack of growth of new single family mortgages and conservative policies. I would look at this conservative approach as positive in present housing market. I have a small position in HCG. Should I panic or use this low price as a buying opportunity? Thank you.