Q: I'm puzzled by the fact that NTR hasn't spiked recently, with the Hormuz chokehold, farmers wailing about fertilizer costs, the Ukraine war etc. It's a cyclical stock, I know, and the market looks way forward but I'd have thought the current conditions would be excellent for NTR's share price. If it's not popping under these conditions what happens when Hormuz clears, etc. That could be a while. Can you shed your bright light on my little mystery?
5i Research Answer:
Well, the stock is up 16% YTD and up 37% in one year. The stock is quite cheap, but we would note that even consensus estimates call for lower EPS next year vs 2026. While the current situation is positive, it still is dependent on contract pricing, and these can be highly variable. NTR did get a broker target price upgrade today (Oppenheimer). IF contracts are renewed at higher prices the stock should be able to act positively.