Good article recently in G&M about BHP Jansen project in Sask. It looks like they could be producing by 2027. Then I went down the rabbit hole about the MLP Banio project, my guess is it may produce by 2031. So my questions: When might be the optimum time to invest in MLP? Would you anticipate a series of share issuances for funding?
And NTR seems to have some seasonality where it does well Feb-May and then pulls back. I remember the big run up in 2022 and I sold about 1/3 of my shares. I'm getting tempted to take my profit before investors start to worry about Jansen again. Thanks, Greg
Production is expected mid-2027 for Jansen regarding BHP, and typically, the markets start to price these events in advance, which is where we think the market is moving right now. Any type of construction delay or cost inflation could send shares lower, but without any negative news, we think the stock can slowly grind higher as the market prices in an eventual startup.
MLP is an early-stage developer, and it is still in the feasibility, permitting, and financing phases. We think if the feasibility studies prove its economics and the capex becomes credible, this is where some of the better entries exist, and currently, it is just before that phase, right now, in the cheap valuation and funding risk stage.
There is an agricultural demand timing where February to May looks strong as it is the Spring planting season, farmers lock in fertilizer demand, and then following this timeframe, there can be a pullback as the demand gets pulled forward and crop uncertainty exists. We think some profit-taking can make sense here, but it is one of the few areas of the market that is currently working and showing positive momentum.