While there are so many possibilities of what can happen, we subscribe to the school of thought that 'many overestimate what can be accomplished in a year, and underestimate what can be accomplished in five years'.
We think the potential for job losses and deflation as a result of AI in the coming year are quite low, as many corporations are still putting up guardrails and assessing how to best use the technology. But, through using these AI tools it is clear that various jobs will be replaced, but also we think economic activity will expand and new jobs created as a result. We see it very much as like the introduction of the internet or even computer and Microsoft tools. These were tools that rapidly expanded productivity and efficiency, but yet businesses still grew rather than simply doing the same amount of work in less time. At the end of the day, a user still needs to prompt these machines, and even in the case of agentic AI, a user needs to set up and run these machines with a defined purpose. We could eventually get to the point where agents are self-creating and defining their own goals, but unlike humans, machines are not naturally motivated to obtain safety (money, status, etc.).