I can't tell if Tou missed numbers or not on their earnings (top and bottom lines)? Also, assuming my numbers are accurate, the annual payout for tourmailne seems to be in a downward trend:
year Annual payout
2021 1.42
2022 7.90
2023 6.55
2024 3.32
2025 3.30
while the base rate has increased, the special dividends have only gone down since 2022.
Has their financial picture increased since 2022?
Tia!
TOU did miss its Q4 results vs estimates. Following Tourmaline's mixed 4Q25 update, there could be a cautious setup for Canada's largest natural gas E&P absent meaningful macroeconomic tailwinds. Continued weak AECO gas benchmark pricing and the removal of the run-rate special dividend are likely to weigh on near-term sentiment. However, spikes in JKM and TTF benchmarks create asymmetric upside, given Tourmaline's contracted LNG exposure. The 2026 capital-spending reduction signals a strategic shift toward free cash flow discipline, limiting downside risk amid gas-market uncertainty. Balance sheet allocation is prudent in the long term, though it was unexpected given already-low leverage. If Iran-driven commodity strength persists and filters into North American pricing, that could provide free cash flow upside and revive sentiment. In the past five years TOU has seen cash flow triple. Debt has increased marginally. The dividend trend has been a bit disturbing, but has been large commodity price-related in our view. The stock is up 138% in that time.