Any worst-case scenario likely impacts Canadian industrials the most (MG, LNR) and leads to a weaker CAD. Best case is likely just a status quo result, maybe with some minor carve-outs or tweaks. Industrials might see a bit of a bounce on this outcome but likely not anything overly material. It is hard to speculate on the range of possibilities but outside of some sort of total breakdown in these talks (which is not out of question), we woudn't expect to see the broader Canadian markets being impacted too harshly but also not something we would see as a positive catalyst to markets either.
With some pressure on the tariff approach on a few different fronts, we would be surprised if the US gets overly aggressive in these negotiations, but again, anything is possible.