I'm surprised the board has accepted such a puny premium - which, given that the offer is only 50% cash may turn out to be no premium, or worse.
What do you think might be the chances of a rival offer? What about odds of shareholder acceptance?
Thanks,
It does seem like a better deal for OVV than for NVA, especially as OVV itself says it expects a 55% return from the NVA assets in 2026. Still, the market was not giving NVA the valuation, and a 20% premium with a chance to participate in future growth likely swayed management. OVV already owns 10% so management may have seen some difficulty in attracting other suitors. Still, we think some shareholders will be very disgruntled. Eric Nuttal has already spoken out against it. We think a rival offer might have a 10% odds on it, but an increased offer from OVV might be at 25%+. Considering NVA's potential and assets, we do think it is a low-ball bid. But that in itself does not guarantee anything else happening here. But we would not sell yet, certainly.