EPS of $2.65 beat estimates of $2.45; revenue of $10.43B missed estimates of $10.54B. EBITDA of $2.49B beat estimates by 7%. Despite an 8.1% beat on EPS, headwinds for 2026 earnings growth are rising, with farmers poised to tighten their budgets. Fertilizer-to-crop price ratios are above the 10-year average for all nutrients, and a 2026 US planting pullback in corn, a heavily fertilized staple, appears likely as the soy-to-corn ratio rises. Still, the company remains upbeat on potash growth, raising 2025 sales guidance by 200,000 metric tons, or $79.4 million in revenue at prevailing prices, and noting that Canpotex is fully committed on sales in 3Q, with "a significant" 4Q book on tap. Other guidance was unchanged. Gross margin at 31% was the highest since 4Q23, aided by Nutrien's SG&A slim-down. The cash position was stronger in the quarter, with cash on hand up 38% vs. 2Q24, even as the pace of share buybacks increased on a $105 million outlay. The stock has been weak of late, but it is very cheap and we remain comfortable.
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