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  5. RY: Long term holder of Royal Bank. [Royal Bank of Canada]
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Q: Long term holder of Royal Bank. Thoughts on quarter please? I read an early report of how RY beat estimates and was up 6% in the pre-market....now when the market is open it is down 3%. Any thoughts....people expected better? Concern over loan provisions?
Thanks...Steve
Asked by Stephen on May 29, 2025
5i Research Answer:

We try not to pay too much attention to non-market-hours trading. Many times the regular session will show differing results. RY's EPS of $3.12 did miss estimates of $3.18. Revenue matched estimates ($15.67B). Provisions for credit losses were higher than expected and this was the main reason for the miss. RY has calibrated its models to higher risks, which preemptively increased provisions for performing loans, even as impaired loans moved gradually. The bank sees low-single-digit mortgage growth in the near term, potentially slower card spending and commercial loans growth in mid- to high-single digits in 2H. Combining a cautious growth view with less interest margin expansion potential could still support RY's high-single-digit to low-double-digit growth in non-trading net interest income. Holding expense growth at the upper end of mid-single digits in 2H can hold 2025 operating leverage. Markets revenue remains a quarterly variable. RBC sees the full-year impaired provision ratio potentially moving to the higher end mid-30s bps guidance, and provisions may peak in 2026. RY tends to be conservative, and we would not be too concerned here overall.