Q: Hi guys at 5 i's
I know that nat gas prices are in the doldrums and if this mild winter continues nat gas is not going to get much of a bid. But Tourmaline TOU is getting down into the mid $50 again and the last year or more whenever it gets back down there it usually doesn't take long to go back to the mid $60's. I own a core position in TOU because of the dividends and the chance that if nat gas goes up for some reason (problems in exporting LNG from Qatar/freaky cold weather, etc.) that TOU will rock upwards. Still I am tempted to trade some additional shares of TOU. I was doing that with ARX but sold out of ARX in the $21.50 range not long ago and I am waiting for a under $20 share price on ARX to get back in. Where do you think TOU might bottom out if nat gas stays low all year because I can't see it going much below the mid $45 range.
I know that nat gas prices are in the doldrums and if this mild winter continues nat gas is not going to get much of a bid. But Tourmaline TOU is getting down into the mid $50 again and the last year or more whenever it gets back down there it usually doesn't take long to go back to the mid $60's. I own a core position in TOU because of the dividends and the chance that if nat gas goes up for some reason (problems in exporting LNG from Qatar/freaky cold weather, etc.) that TOU will rock upwards. Still I am tempted to trade some additional shares of TOU. I was doing that with ARX but sold out of ARX in the $21.50 range not long ago and I am waiting for a under $20 share price on ARX to get back in. Where do you think TOU might bottom out if nat gas stays low all year because I can't see it going much below the mid $45 range.
5i Research Answer:
It is never easy to call a bottom. Shares will, many times, go below intrinsic value simply on negative sentiment. In 2008, for example, 1500 stocks in North America traded below their cash value as investors worried about the world ending. TOU is very cheap, has a rock solid balance sheet, and has promised four special dividends this year. If the sector weakens further, we imagine it will start buying some companies. Still, in the dark days of 2020 the stock went as low as $4.70. But we would agree that in this cycle $45 to $48 'should' be a bottom and should attract yield investors there.