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  5. GOOS: Hi [Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares]
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Investment Q&A

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Q: Hi: I am looking back at your recent answers and also this week’s earnings. Are you now recommending that GOOS is a sell, please advise with some suggested guidance going forward. With their seasonal business it would also be helpful if you can comment on likely updates to their progress, ie we need another winter to pass before we see any changes.

Thanks in advance.
Asked by Peter on February 05, 2024
5i Research Answer:

We took GOOS out of our portfolio last year on slower growth and high exposure to China. Canada Goose's narrower guidance update for fiscal 4Q may prompt EPS upgrades as Asia-Pacific -- led by a rebounding China -- potentially records better-than-expected growth. The US' easier comparisons, improved sentiment and colder weather (also in Europe) could boost 4Q revenue. Yet a sales recovery might take longer amid adverse consumer conditions, given sluggish conversions and deeper wholesale streamlining offset store openings. More work is needed to clear in-market inventory, with heavier excess product repurchases and obsolescence provisions weighing on margin and cash generation. Inventory could reach 440 days -- more than 2x BI luxury peers. Though new collaborations and more womenswear support brand equity, mounting discounting risk may hurt consumer perception. Overall, the quarter was good, and challenges remain. We would really like to see inventory reduced. We would consider it a HOLD today.